Last year a CIA analyst predicted that Pakistan would fall to the Taliban within a few years (2015).
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| The Pakistan Taliban - Tehreek-e-taliban |
All the evidence is that Pakistan is very slowly losing the war with the militants, and that the army is being beaten into sitting in bunkers outside cities, but with little control in the countryside.
This pattern is similar to that which ended the communist rule in Afghanistan and recent reports show that the Pakistani army, undermined as it often is by the ISI which has a history of supporting religious militants, is still unable to break the cycle of defeats.
Region after region has fallen out of the control of Pakistan, and this report from Swat, nicely illustrates what's happening all over the border regions. Its this collapse that is the reason why the US has taken to raiding across the porous Afghan border.
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| Haqqani Militant Network - Based in Pakistan - kills in Afghanistan |
The Pakistanis are unable to acknowledge that they have no control over the border regions, and so complain about the US inciting attacks by these raids, not the fact that its Pakistan's inability to prevent attacks that forces the US reprisals.
The Liberals and Intelligentsia of Pakistan are as educated as any in the world, but they have no voice greater than the Mullahs mobs, and like those in the Western Roman Empire who failed to recognise the empires collapse, even as it occurred, these people will occasionally rant about the poverty of their system, they do nothing practical and keep their hands away from the fray.
Update July 2022: Obviously Pakistan hasn't fallen to its version of the Taliban, although the Taliban have now retaken control of Afghanistan. However once again a Pakistani Prime Minister has failed to last a full term in office, and the country is in deep trouble.
Its foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a $2.3 billion cash inflow from China late last month .. in fact a cash-starved Pakistan, has been facing growing economic challenges, with very high inflation, a sliding forex reserve, and a widening current account deficit and a depreciating currency, as well as large foreign debts that its borrowing at high interest rates to repay existing debts.
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