Sunday, 15 January 2012

Good News Bad News

First the 'Good News'. We are not going to have a new 'Ice Age' within the next 1,500 years or so, which is when it was due to have started. The last one ended about 11,500 years ago, and as they cycle through every 12,000 years or so, according to scientists (its all to do with Earths orbital cycles known as 'Milankovitch cycles' - subtle variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun), we were about due one. So probably we can all be grateful for this bit of information, and granny can stop knitting the Woolly Mammoth jumpers.
 
Wooly Rhinos - Not In The Neighbourhood Soon
Not In The Neighbourhood Soon

Now for the 'Bad News'. The reason why there isn't going to be a new 'Ice Age' next week, or even next millennium, is that 'Global Warming' is preventing the conditions that triggers the start of the next 'Ice Age' from firing up. This because scientists believe that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm), before the glaciation could begin, and as the levels are currently about 390 ppm, then obviously it won't be happening soon.  

Incidentally, before we all started worrying about 'Global Warming', I can remember newspapers discussing how we were overdue for the next 'Ice Age' .... even with the warming up. So unless we get a runaway 'Greenhouse Effect' (like the planet Venus), we will still have another 'Ice Age', its just a matter of when, not if.

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