A while ago I predicted that under Raúl Castro, Cuba would suddenly see dramatic changes in the lifestyles of it peoples .... rather like ice dripping from a glacier it would be imperceptible, but the effects would accelerate and there would be a positive deluge of changes.
Well we are on the point where the tipping point will be passed. An American President has visited Cuba for the first time since Calvin Coolidge landed in Havana from a US battleship and declared in in 1928 that Cuba was "free and prosperous". Hardly a claim that Pres. Obama could make, and also hardly like Nixon going to China, but a hopeful sign nonetheless.
I don't expect Communism to fall on the island whilst the Castro's are both alive, but I doubt it will survive their passing by much .... too many ex-pats in the USA, and too close. Like Panama their economy will become inextricably bound to that of the US in the next 30 years or so and eventually they may even apply to become a state .... its the reality of a small island state, living in the backyard of the worlds most powerful nation.
Is that a bad thing? Well maybe not. Cuba has always struggled with its relationship with the USA, and the corruption endemic in its societies (both before the revolution and latterly after the revolution), mean that perhaps, joining the USA and facing its checks and balances against outright corruption, would be the best that the population could hope for?
Still that's all for a the future, which as we have discussed in an earlier post, is not always as crystal clear cut as we might hope for.
Well we are on the point where the tipping point will be passed. An American President has visited Cuba for the first time since Calvin Coolidge landed in Havana from a US battleship and declared in in 1928 that Cuba was "free and prosperous". Hardly a claim that Pres. Obama could make, and also hardly like Nixon going to China, but a hopeful sign nonetheless.
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| USA and Cuban Relations Are Always Difficult |
I don't expect Communism to fall on the island whilst the Castro's are both alive, but I doubt it will survive their passing by much .... too many ex-pats in the USA, and too close. Like Panama their economy will become inextricably bound to that of the US in the next 30 years or so and eventually they may even apply to become a state .... its the reality of a small island state, living in the backyard of the worlds most powerful nation.
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| Cuba A Future 51st State? |
Is that a bad thing? Well maybe not. Cuba has always struggled with its relationship with the USA, and the corruption endemic in its societies (both before the revolution and latterly after the revolution), mean that perhaps, joining the USA and facing its checks and balances against outright corruption, would be the best that the population could hope for?
Still that's all for a the future, which as we have discussed in an earlier post, is not always as crystal clear cut as we might hope for.
I think In get your point. Yes communism may be replaced by despotism. Thanks for the comment.
ReplyDeleteWe live in tumultuous times.
ReplyDeleteI guess every generation believe that to be true.
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