Well the people have spoken, a Prime Minister gambled and lost .... and now the rows and the inquests will commence. But even before those analysts pore over the result, there are some striking observations to be made:
Scotland will certainly demand another independence referendum based on its wholehearted (well 3/5ths to Remain, and 2/5ths to Brexit ... if that counts as wholehearted), vote to Remain, but how that vote goes may not be completely cut and dried. Oddly if the vote is to stay in the UK, then the Scottish Nationalist Party may regret the rush to call it, as it could end the question for decades.
After all to lose one referendum is perhaps unfortunate, but to lose two is very careless, and looks bad ..... However as I have pointed out before, the simple fact is that once the Pandora's box of devolution was presented to the Scottish people, then sooner or later it would be opened, and as we all know it can never be closed. Perhaps its for the best if the Scots sample the delights of being a small English speaking nation (along with Eire), inside the French and German dominated EU .... good luck with that.
London. Well there's an interesting story ... the fact is that it's been favoured in terms of resources over the rest of the UK for decades ... but it's also had the largest number of immigrants. In fact 55% of the population of London are non native British, with many from the EU. So you might have expected the immigrant argument to play big, but apart from places like Dagenham, it didn't seem to, and London voted solidly to stay in EU.
Elsewhere though it was a different story, and there it was a case that by constantly ignoring the immigration concerns of it core voters again, it not only exposed the Labour Party's Achilles heel in England, it also destroyed the Remain camps natural advantage. They have ignored it on the white voters doorsteps for decades (see Gordon Brown's disaster), and it has cost them more dearly with each passing election, but they still don't learn. Diane Abbott this morning said that the vote was "a roar of defiance against the Westminster elite. We have to listen very carefully to what they were trying to say to us." ..... which begs the question of how thick can you be, and still be an MP? The Labour party is being wiped out because it treats white working class British people as xenophobic racists, simply for not wanting to destroy their own culture and history, to accommodate immigrants.
The fact is that in the referendum, the Labour party elite failed to deliver its core voters to the Remain camp ... as with a leader like Jeremy Corbyn, who was very lukewarm on his support for the EU and very pro-immigrant, then trying to argue to Remain in it was always going to be a struggle. Oddly the SNP delivered the Remain votes with its former Labour supporters in Scotland, but in the other socialist heartlands such as Wales, and the North East and West of England, Eastern England and other non metropolitan areas, the Labour Party has singularly failed its end of the establishment bargain, with cities such as Sunderland voting 61% to leave, and Newcastle 51%. Even the other major metropolitan Labour areas mostly showed only slim majorities to stay in the EU ... even in areas where immigration has not become a major issue.
As a doubter that the EU would ever reform without a shock, I was an Outer and I voted out, but with no conviction that it would be anything but a 55% vote to stay in. I expected nothing more than a high protest vote ... but there was a groundswell of discontent that some of us could feel, but could not gauge. The problem for me and probably many others was that I found the Remain campaign was so utterly negative, that I could find no EU positives to change my views ... not that it would have made a difference if I had done so (and I am honest enough to say that I was open minded at the start until I was forced to vote ~ postal), as my area voted a stunning 67.5% to leave. If Remain politicians had canvassed around here, they may well have realised that their message wasn't working, and changed their tactics before it was too late.
So in the end, the fact is that the elites in both Westminster and Brussels, completely misread the English and Welsh moods. The paltry tweaks offered to David Cameron were the starting gun for that to emerge. We couldn't believe the EU attitude towards our concerns, and treatment of a British Prime Minister .. items such welfare benefits, housing and no ability to say no to anything, were and are legitimate concerns ... Mr Juncker and his pals just seemed to be laughing. What this all means for the rest of the EU it's hard to judge, but if they had paid a little more attention to Cameron's concerns and bent a little, then they wouldn't be facing the problems they and us will now face today.
So in the end its the real English and Welsh (who also rejected the EU), those who are not part of the London bubble who have spoken, and the elites have found out that those voters had had enough of being bullied into silence, and not listened to.
Sadly an expensive lesson in real democracy, for both us and them ..... one that didn't have to be learnt, if they had only listened to the voice of a people.....
- Scotland and London are very different countries to the rest of the (dis) United Kingdom.
- The result swung, not on the Tory areas, but in the Labour Party's former heartlands.
- The relentlessly negative Remain campaign drove many into the out camp.
- If you ignore the Scottish and London results, the vote to leave would have been more emphatic.
- We are a very divided and angry nation - half are upset and the other half are somewhat fearful.
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| EU Referendum - Disaster Or Providence. Only Time Will Tell. |
Scotland will certainly demand another independence referendum based on its wholehearted (well 3/5ths to Remain, and 2/5ths to Brexit ... if that counts as wholehearted), vote to Remain, but how that vote goes may not be completely cut and dried. Oddly if the vote is to stay in the UK, then the Scottish Nationalist Party may regret the rush to call it, as it could end the question for decades.
After all to lose one referendum is perhaps unfortunate, but to lose two is very careless, and looks bad ..... However as I have pointed out before, the simple fact is that once the Pandora's box of devolution was presented to the Scottish people, then sooner or later it would be opened, and as we all know it can never be closed. Perhaps its for the best if the Scots sample the delights of being a small English speaking nation (along with Eire), inside the French and German dominated EU .... good luck with that.
London. Well there's an interesting story ... the fact is that it's been favoured in terms of resources over the rest of the UK for decades ... but it's also had the largest number of immigrants. In fact 55% of the population of London are non native British, with many from the EU. So you might have expected the immigrant argument to play big, but apart from places like Dagenham, it didn't seem to, and London voted solidly to stay in EU.
Elsewhere though it was a different story, and there it was a case that by constantly ignoring the immigration concerns of it core voters again, it not only exposed the Labour Party's Achilles heel in England, it also destroyed the Remain camps natural advantage. They have ignored it on the white voters doorsteps for decades (see Gordon Brown's disaster), and it has cost them more dearly with each passing election, but they still don't learn. Diane Abbott this morning said that the vote was "a roar of defiance against the Westminster elite. We have to listen very carefully to what they were trying to say to us." ..... which begs the question of how thick can you be, and still be an MP? The Labour party is being wiped out because it treats white working class British people as xenophobic racists, simply for not wanting to destroy their own culture and history, to accommodate immigrants.
The fact is that in the referendum, the Labour party elite failed to deliver its core voters to the Remain camp ... as with a leader like Jeremy Corbyn, who was very lukewarm on his support for the EU and very pro-immigrant, then trying to argue to Remain in it was always going to be a struggle. Oddly the SNP delivered the Remain votes with its former Labour supporters in Scotland, but in the other socialist heartlands such as Wales, and the North East and West of England, Eastern England and other non metropolitan areas, the Labour Party has singularly failed its end of the establishment bargain, with cities such as Sunderland voting 61% to leave, and Newcastle 51%. Even the other major metropolitan Labour areas mostly showed only slim majorities to stay in the EU ... even in areas where immigration has not become a major issue.
As a doubter that the EU would ever reform without a shock, I was an Outer and I voted out, but with no conviction that it would be anything but a 55% vote to stay in. I expected nothing more than a high protest vote ... but there was a groundswell of discontent that some of us could feel, but could not gauge. The problem for me and probably many others was that I found the Remain campaign was so utterly negative, that I could find no EU positives to change my views ... not that it would have made a difference if I had done so (and I am honest enough to say that I was open minded at the start until I was forced to vote ~ postal), as my area voted a stunning 67.5% to leave. If Remain politicians had canvassed around here, they may well have realised that their message wasn't working, and changed their tactics before it was too late.
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| Brussels Not Listening Caused Brexit .... |
So in the end, the fact is that the elites in both Westminster and Brussels, completely misread the English and Welsh moods. The paltry tweaks offered to David Cameron were the starting gun for that to emerge. We couldn't believe the EU attitude towards our concerns, and treatment of a British Prime Minister .. items such welfare benefits, housing and no ability to say no to anything, were and are legitimate concerns ... Mr Juncker and his pals just seemed to be laughing. What this all means for the rest of the EU it's hard to judge, but if they had paid a little more attention to Cameron's concerns and bent a little, then they wouldn't be facing the problems they and us will now face today.
So in the end its the real English and Welsh (who also rejected the EU), those who are not part of the London bubble who have spoken, and the elites have found out that those voters had had enough of being bullied into silence, and not listened to.
Sadly an expensive lesson in real democracy, for both us and them ..... one that didn't have to be learnt, if they had only listened to the voice of a people.....
Strangely the world hasn't ended and the luftwaffe are not overhead. The pub isn't exhibiting signs of madness. In fact all seems normal.
ReplyDeleteJust asked around in my pub. All the older voters who voted out, and that was most of them said that it was for the sake of their grand children.
DeleteImmigration: Housing: School's and Health care were all top reasons.
Just thought I would add that.
Good post. I too have just asked my friends whouse are all over aged 50.. Same reasons as other posters but fed up of UK always getting losing to Germany and France was another reason.
DeleteRound my way it was the health service stretch that was the decider for many.
DeleteI am not surprised that last night brought a flurry of comments. I too am shocked that we voted out ... I also spoke to people yesterday. Lack of accountability / transparency seemed to be a factor for many. Its fair to say that most of those I spoke to were aged 50+ and I suspect that if I had found a younger group to talk to, many would have been Remainers and very upset by result.
DeleteThe UK will break up now .... so this has been a tragedy as well but Scotland was going to break with the Union sooner or later ... its now going to be sooner.
Thanks for the comments from across the still UK.
I'll admit to be slightly shocked at the result but I still don't know if it's good or bad. I suspect that it's swings and roundabouts. It did occur to me however that if we stay in the EU nothing will change whereas leaving it gives some hope of improvement.
ReplyDeleteOf course you are right. The EU would have carried on to its Superstate final destination. A lot of passengers would wake up and find they were maybe at a place they hadn't expected when they got on board. If they do change course then ironically it would make it something we would probably never had left .... Catch 22 sums it up.
Delete