Friday, 27 September 2019

Porky Pies

The outbreak of African Swine fever in Asia hasn't really made the news much in UK ....

African Swine Fever Outbreak In Asia
African Swine Fever Outbreak In Asia

..... but for a sizeable portion of the worlds population, this is an ever growing food disaster.

It appears that the outbreak started in August 2018 in China, where it quickly spread to every region of the country, this despite the Chinese authorities closing live meat markets, culling the infected herds, and banning farmers from feeding their animals with human food leftovers (a common method of transmission). The disease seems to have then crossed in to North Korea (according to a defector), at the end of 2018, but not reported to the UN at that time .... however it then quickly spread to Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos and even crossed the ocean to the Philippines.

Pig Production Is Big In China
Pig Production Is Big In China ..... 

Now I freely admit, I didn't know much about swine fever, which originally spread from Africa to Europe; so in brief, its apparently a highly contagious, and a totally incurable virus, which is deadly to pigs but apparently not dangerous to humans. It can be passed on between herds by direct contact with infected pigs and wild boars, or through infected animal feed, and even on clothing, and farm equipment.

The only control is via very strict quarantine and herd culling, but the numbers of animals involved in the culls are quite staggering:
  • 1.2 million in China
  • 4.5 million in Vietnam
  • 25,000 in Laos
  • 7,000 in Philippines
  • 3,115 in Mongolia
  • 2,400 in Cambodia

The total output of pork in China in 2018 was 54.04 million tons. At the end of the year, 428.17 million pigs were registered in the total stocks, down by 3.0 percent, and 693.82 million pigs were slaughtered. These are big figures.

But there is one problem that all these countries share, which is that very large proportions of the total pig production is on small, family run farms, or even back gardens. So there is a great suspicion that many outbreaks have been under-reported, or just plain non-reported. This means that the UN expects the disease to carry on spreading, even if only because many of the small farmers lack both the funds, or expertise, to protect their herds. If they have been non reporting as well, then the disease may not be controlled. 

Across the region, pork is a staple meat foodstuff (it accounts for more than 60% of China's meat consumption), and prices have risen by some dramatic figures, 46.7 per cent in August in China and 10 per cent in Vietnam .... these are substantial rises for the millions of people in the region, many of whom still live at a subsistence level. Its predicted that Chinese pork production will fall by up to 35% this year due to the swine fever, and even the release of the 10,000 tonnes of imported frozen pork from the Chinese central reserves for auction will only stabilise prices for the week-long national holiday for the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

Now, we in Europe and the North Americas might feel this is a far eastern oriental problem, but in June 2019 Customs officials in Northern Ireland, confiscated more than 300kg of illegal meat and dairy products from airport passengers’ luggage ...  this is the first time the African Swine Fever virus has been detected in the UK.

African Swine Fever Now In Eastern Europe
African Swine Fever Now In Eastern Europe ....

In Europe the disease was detected in Belgium in 2018, and the Danish government is now building a wall to prevent the disease entering their country via wild boar. Earlier, Serbia had already confirmed the presence of African Swine Fever, with four outbreaks in backyard pig holdings around the city of Belgrade. In addition, there have been outbreaks of the fever in domestic pigs in large commercial holdings in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania.

We are probably not going to be able to stop it getting here eventually ..... then it will be big news here as well.

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