Having just re-read an older post again
.... its funny how just eight years can alter the picture.
President Donald Trump's erratic (to say the very least) domestic and foreign policy's e.g. Pulling troops out of Syria, and letting the Russians and Turkey carve up the Kurdish former American allies (to give just one example), plus his very strange handling of the Coronavirus (CoVid19) outbreak, has led to a perceptible sea change in the way the USA is perceived in the world.
So many analysts have speculated that this is perhaps the moment when the baton of number one big powerful nation (if not exactly world policeman, as they don't want that role, nor of moral leadership, their political model doesn't warrant it), is handed over by the USA, in what's being termed its 'Suez Moment' (The moment Britain was seen to no longer be an independent world player). Obviously, it will be Communist China that assumes this number one big dog position, if this change is true, despite it being the originator of the current pandemic that's trashing the world economy, and its expansionist aggressive military policies in the west pacific.
The reasons for this speculation? Well mainly because of the aforementioned erratic behaviour of perhaps the oddest US President in a century. Domestically and internationally he alternately praises, berates, insults, or sacks, anyone who he thinks doesn't like him, and then suddenly about turns if he needs their help. He has attacked some Democratic state governors handling of the Coronavirus issue, for instance by criticising New York's Andrew Cuomo, and then belittling Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer on Twitter, mocking her name and calling her incompetent.
However he then spoke to Ms Whitmer and reported that he had a "really great conversation" with her, and detailed the support the federal government was providing for her state. He also incorrectly claimed that he, and not State Governors, had the authority to lift lockdowns and restart the economy. Only to be forced to retract and admitting "The governors are responsible. They have to take charge." This is a familiar pattern of behaviour since before he even took office.
Internationally the US under Trumps direction has tried to block sending some medical supplies to Canada ('America First' remember), tried to bully India into selling it hydroxychloroquine and other drugs to the USA. It also attempted to takeover, or failing that, get CureVac a German based pharmaceutical company, to move its research wing to the United States, and develop a Covid-19 vaccine "for the U.S. only" ('America First' remember).
It was also very quick to block travellers from the EU and elsewhere, whilst not giving any political lead or much physical aid to countries that are struggling with the coronavirus. Trump's now belatedly offered 'spare' ventilators to other countries (but only in June 2020 ... maybe, if the US doesn't need them then) .... but then stops funding the World Health Organisation (WHO) in a spat over whether it did its duty, and also seemingly to deflect domestic criticism of one Donald Trump esquire. For instance in February, it said that widespread travel restrictions against China were not needed to stop the spread of Covid-19 ... they obviously were, and if enacted earlier may have stopped the virus spread.
He's alternately criticised and praised other countries, especially China's efforts to tackle the crisis, whilst praising his own responses.
Meanwhile Russia has sent medical supplies to New York (which although paid for), has been described by Russia as 'Aid, from Russia with love'. Russia has also provided similar 'aid' to Italy (which some Italians denounced as nearly useless). China has also announced that it was sending medical teams and supplies to Italy, as well as help to Iran, South Africa, and Serbia too (even though some of the Chinese help has proved defective). It has also established link-ups in the counter-coronavirus campaign with its near neighbours - Japan and South Korea - and the provision of vital health equipment to the EU, and Turkey. All great propaganda in those areas of the third world where this counts.
This has all led to some political analysts suggesting that the USA might be about to lose its pre-eminent role in the world, especially if Trump wins a second term in November. They are in fact predicting nothing less than the end of the American Century ... at somewhat short of the century mark. However a bit like the predictions of the end of history its likely to be premature, or even just plain wrong.
In all reality, despite the fevered analysis by some commentators, we are probably not going to see world leadership move permanently out of the White House, as China can't really step up to the plate, despite the USA being currently largely absent from the international scene. It may be the worlds factory, but it has little ability to project hard (Military - one of the three M's that designate the world Number one power - Military, Monetary and Moral) power anywhere, as its military muscle reach is limited largely to the South China Sea.
Its Monetary power (another of the three M's) is also not quite what many think. In the first SARS outbreak in 2003, China accounted for 4 per cent of world trade, now it accounts for 16 per cent of all trade, which although significant, is not totally indispensable. Its even possible that as global supply chains have been seen to be very vulnerable in this crisis (especially from China), that the Western countries may reverse the manufacturing out-sourcing to China, and re-shore as much as possible of its supply chain manufacture as it can. This may also stem China's growth and diminish its monetary muscle.
Finally, the last of the three M's is moral leadership .... now despite President Trumps very best efforts via impeachment and other activities, which have reduced the expected presidential standard of conduct, to a level that makes President Nixon look like a modal of probity, China has little to offer in this regard. Its even suggested that foreigners, namely US soldiers introduced Coronavirus into Wuhan ... Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said "It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!" .... obviously the idea that a platoon of US soldiers marched unnoticed into Wuhan, infected the population, and left again, unremarked or unseen is ridiculous, but plays well in China it seems.
China's already an authoritarian and ever more nationalist state, and is likely to become even more authoritarian and more nationalist as the impact of the pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown strike home. Hardly a model that will sway many in the world outside of China.
So its not likely to be a baton change, but certainly the USA may not have the unchallenged leadership role that its had for the last 50 years ... its leadership of even the West will need to be won back, as its current President has used up all the bank of respect it had left, from what it had earned in 1945.
 |
| The Pax Britannia Ended Before Suez, But We Didn't Realise Until 1956 |
.... its funny how just eight years can alter the picture.
President Donald Trump's erratic (to say the very least) domestic and foreign policy's e.g. Pulling troops out of Syria, and letting the Russians and Turkey carve up the Kurdish former American allies (to give just one example), plus his very strange handling of the Coronavirus (CoVid19) outbreak, has led to a perceptible sea change in the way the USA is perceived in the world.
So many analysts have speculated that this is perhaps the moment when the baton of number one big powerful nation (if not exactly world policeman, as they don't want that role, nor of moral leadership, their political model doesn't warrant it), is handed over by the USA, in what's being termed its 'Suez Moment' (The moment Britain was seen to no longer be an independent world player). Obviously, it will be Communist China that assumes this number one big dog position, if this change is true, despite it being the originator of the current pandemic that's trashing the world economy, and its expansionist aggressive military policies in the west pacific.
The reasons for this speculation? Well mainly because of the aforementioned erratic behaviour of perhaps the oddest US President in a century. Domestically and internationally he alternately praises, berates, insults, or sacks, anyone who he thinks doesn't like him, and then suddenly about turns if he needs their help. He has attacked some Democratic state governors handling of the Coronavirus issue, for instance by criticising New York's Andrew Cuomo, and then belittling Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer on Twitter, mocking her name and calling her incompetent.
However he then spoke to Ms Whitmer and reported that he had a "really great conversation" with her, and detailed the support the federal government was providing for her state. He also incorrectly claimed that he, and not State Governors, had the authority to lift lockdowns and restart the economy. Only to be forced to retract and admitting "The governors are responsible. They have to take charge." This is a familiar pattern of behaviour since before he even took office.
Internationally the US under Trumps direction has tried to block sending some medical supplies to Canada ('America First' remember), tried to bully India into selling it hydroxychloroquine and other drugs to the USA. It also attempted to takeover, or failing that, get CureVac a German based pharmaceutical company, to move its research wing to the United States, and develop a Covid-19 vaccine "for the U.S. only" ('America First' remember).
It was also very quick to block travellers from the EU and elsewhere, whilst not giving any political lead or much physical aid to countries that are struggling with the coronavirus. Trump's now belatedly offered 'spare' ventilators to other countries (but only in June 2020 ... maybe, if the US doesn't need them then) .... but then stops funding the World Health Organisation (WHO) in a spat over whether it did its duty, and also seemingly to deflect domestic criticism of one Donald Trump esquire. For instance in February, it said that widespread travel restrictions against China were not needed to stop the spread of Covid-19 ... they obviously were, and if enacted earlier may have stopped the virus spread.
 |
| WHO Blew It? |
He's alternately criticised and praised other countries, especially China's efforts to tackle the crisis, whilst praising his own responses.
 |
| Praise For China And For Self In Equal Measure ... |
Meanwhile Russia has sent medical supplies to New York (which although paid for), has been described by Russia as 'Aid, from Russia with love'. Russia has also provided similar 'aid' to Italy (which some Italians denounced as nearly useless). China has also announced that it was sending medical teams and supplies to Italy, as well as help to Iran, South Africa, and Serbia too (even though some of the Chinese help has proved defective). It has also established link-ups in the counter-coronavirus campaign with its near neighbours - Japan and South Korea - and the provision of vital health equipment to the EU, and Turkey. All great propaganda in those areas of the third world where this counts.
 |
| American Century Foreshortened? |
This has all led to some political analysts suggesting that the USA might be about to lose its pre-eminent role in the world, especially if Trump wins a second term in November. They are in fact predicting nothing less than the end of the American Century ... at somewhat short of the century mark. However a bit like the predictions of the end of history its likely to be premature, or even just plain wrong.
In all reality, despite the fevered analysis by some commentators, we are probably not going to see world leadership move permanently out of the White House, as China can't really step up to the plate, despite the USA being currently largely absent from the international scene. It may be the worlds factory, but it has little ability to project hard (Military - one of the three M's that designate the world Number one power - Military, Monetary and Moral) power anywhere, as its military muscle reach is limited largely to the South China Sea.
Its Monetary power (another of the three M's) is also not quite what many think. In the first SARS outbreak in 2003, China accounted for 4 per cent of world trade, now it accounts for 16 per cent of all trade, which although significant, is not totally indispensable. Its even possible that as global supply chains have been seen to be very vulnerable in this crisis (especially from China), that the Western countries may reverse the manufacturing out-sourcing to China, and re-shore as much as possible of its supply chain manufacture as it can. This may also stem China's growth and diminish its monetary muscle.
Finally, the last of the three M's is moral leadership .... now despite President Trumps very best efforts via impeachment and other activities, which have reduced the expected presidential standard of conduct, to a level that makes President Nixon look like a modal of probity, China has little to offer in this regard. Its even suggested that foreigners, namely US soldiers introduced Coronavirus into Wuhan ... Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said "It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!" .... obviously the idea that a platoon of US soldiers marched unnoticed into Wuhan, infected the population, and left again, unremarked or unseen is ridiculous, but plays well in China it seems.
China's already an authoritarian and ever more nationalist state, and is likely to become even more authoritarian and more nationalist as the impact of the pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown strike home. Hardly a model that will sway many in the world outside of China.
So its not likely to be a baton change, but certainly the USA may not have the unchallenged leadership role that its had for the last 50 years ... its leadership of even the West will need to be won back, as its current President has used up all the bank of respect it had left, from what it had earned in 1945.
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