Friday, 4 September 2020

Undocumented Immigrants

Immigration figures have not been in the news a lot recently because of coronavirus, and interest in them waxes and wanes, as the issue makes the news such as the recent channel crossings.

Illegal Immigrants Cause Voter Anxieties .....
Illegal Immigrants Cause Voter Anxieties .....

However from the UK Brexit referendum, through the Turkish threats to let Arabs stream in to Europe, and the forthcoming US Presidential Election and beyond, they will feature .... so although the Coronavirus response has pushed it lower down the political ladder it still cause concerns.

But whatever the local priorities, the truth is that politicians across much of the Western world have let the subject be hijacked by a liberal left agenda, that always ignored the native populations concerns or wishes to restrict both legal and most especially illegal immigration.

For instance, no one in the UK in the 1950's and 1970's, when immigration from outside Europe first started, imagined having more than a few tens of thousands of immigrants from the Indian Sub-continent settling here .... now we have millions of immigrants from that region, and another 40-50k arrive each year. This has caused the very nature of our society to be altered forever, much to the disquiet of many ..... but no political party has tackled the issue upfront and honestly, in a conspiracy of silence that has done no one any good.

However getting exact numbers on the issue can be difficult, especially in the UK and Europe, where lack of borders controls, or proper documentation of numbers in the case of the UK, mean its hard to classify who is here or not.

In the US, figures are a little easier to get. Oddly despite all the hysteria from US Liberals over the alleged new crackdown on illegal immigration from central and south America, as well as those proscribed six 'Muslim' country's under Trump, this crackdown actually started under President Obama, not President Trump. The Obama administration even launched a programme aimed specifically at deporting the mostly women and children who have come from Honduras, Guatemala and other Central American countries since 2014.

So for the USA the most recent illegal/undocumented figures I could find were from just before the last US Elections. They were taken from a report produced by the Centre for Migration Studies, a New York think tank. They stated that the total undocumented immigrant population of the USA was 10.9 million, which is the lowest since 2003.

They also stated that the number of undocumented immigrants has fallen each year since 2008, this driven primarily by a steady decline in illegal migrants from Mexico. This fall in numbers from Mexico has been attributed to a combination of tighter U.S border security measures, and economic and demographic changes in Mexico, such as women having fewer children.

US Border Patrols Are A Lonely Task
US Border Patrols Are A Lonely Task .....

Generally the report found that declines in immigrants from South America and Europe have contributed to the overall number drop, this despite the fact that there has been a rise illegal immigration from Central America, where families with children have been crossing the south-west border in large numbers in recent years. However its still reported that six million of the 10.9 million illegal/undocumented total are originally from Mexico.

For the figures prior to 2007, I found that demographers at the Pew Research Centre, had reported that the number of illegal immigrants more than tripled, to 12.2 million, between 1990 and 2007, but they also confirmed that it had since dropped by about 1 million. They estimated that the total illegal immigration population of the USA was 11.3 million, as of 2014.

Of course, its not just the numbers, but also the nature of the immigrants that cause the problems. In Europe its been a sea of North African and Middle Eastern Muslim men, while in the USA the illegal immigrants have also tended to largely be young Hispanic men streaming across the Southern border. Many of these two groups end up unemployed and drift into criminal activities, a fact which is reflected in prison figures across nearly every western county.

US Prison Figures Reflect A Racial Influence
US Prison Figures Reflect A Racial Influence .....

Recently the changes in the nature of those crossing the US border, have also changed the make-up of the undocumented population generally. The demographic data now shows that the typical illegal immigrant now is much more likely someone who is 35 or older, and who has lived in the United States for a decade or more.

Despite this fall in overall numbers, the Department of Homeland Security (which enforces immigration laws in the US), reported in 2014 that more than 525,000 people overstayed their visas in that fiscal year, and that about 482,000 of them were suspected to be in the country illegally. But they also stated that of nearly 45 million non-immigrant visas issued, 98.8 percent of the visa-holders left the country on time.

These last figures are very with consistent overstay rates as far back as the 1980s, and they concluded that of the total of 525,000 people who stayed beyond their visas that year, would very likely be counteracted by a lot of people who came in previous years and who had overstayed their visas, and who would now ave left in 2014. This suggests that actually the problem with illegals is comparatively small, although the numbers look large.

So, while the Trump pronouncements on immigration take all the headlines, the discussion on the subject is one that has been long running, and likely to continue for decades.  

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