Christmas Is Coming ...

Christmas is coming, the geese are getting fat ......

The New Normal Christmas ......

 

.... please put a mask on, lockdowns coming back!

At least that is what it feels like, as the new Covid Omicron variant is found to have already arrived at our shores, as well as many other shores.  The fear is that this new Covid Omicron variant, with 32 mutations to the spike protein, means that those mutations, may allow it to evade existing vaccines and spread quickly.

Now the truth is that no one really knows what this will really mean in terms of increased hospitalisations and deaths, or even for sure what protection current vaccines provide. So I looked at what the reporting South African doctor, Angelique Coetzee said about it.

She said that it presents to clinicians as adults complaining of intense fatigue, and a six-year-old child who presented with a very high pulse rate. But although unusual symptoms for Covid, these are reportedly mild, and of comparatively short duration. None of those affected suffered from a loss of taste or smell, and the child was much better within 2 days. The adults diagnosed were half and half, between those who were already vaccinated, and those who weren't, although with which vaccine has not been reported (South Africa uses a mix of Johnson & Johnson, COVAX, and Pfizer vaccines).

The main worry is, that as in South Africa only 6 per cent of the population are over age 65, and the people diagnosed with the omicron variant in SA so far, have all been young and healthy, those older patients who will develop the illness with the new variant, especially those with co-morbidities such as diabetes or heart disease, may present with more severe symptoms.

South Africa has a comparatively low take up rate for Covid vaccination at just 41 doses per 100 eligible people, not because of lack of vaccine availability now, but because of a general reluctance to get shots, aka 'vaccine hesitancy'. With its mostly younger age demographics the death rate is lower and the risks therefore perceived to be minimal by most of the population (Covid remains a killer of the elderly). But by African standards, South Africa is doing pretty well, but is not doing as well as it could.

Research by the Human Sciences Research Council and the University of Johannesburg in August 2021, showed that while only 52% of White adults in the country were willing to get a Covid-19 shot, over 75% of their Black counterparts claimed to be willing to do so. However  this is not translating into actual vaccine take-ups amongst the majority Black population. In fact South Africa was struggling to keep its immunisation centres busy by August 2021, just three months after the rollout of its inoculation program, as the daily number coming forward to be vaccinated had halved in that time. 

In fact this lack of interest in getting vaccinations is more in line with the results of another survey in South Africa, in July 2021 by Afrobarometer, which canvassed 1,600 people, and found that 54% of South Africans were unlikely to get a vaccine, and almost half thought that prayer was a better defence against the coronavirus than any inoculation.

Global Vaccine Rollout And Take Up

Just one look at the vaccination global map, shows central Africa to be one of the most likely transmission starting points for new variants of Covid-19, as vaccination rates are non existent in that area. So these variants if they develop, are all likely to enter South Africa as the regions biggest economy, and thence on to the rest of the world. So the emergence of variants such as the new Covid Omicron variant from that area is hardly to be unexpected.

So what is the risk of all our work so far being undone? Well, the WHO has already said it believes existing vaccines "will still prevent severe disease" among people who contract the new variant. Asked about the severity of cases, WHO epidemiologist Dr Maria van Kerkhove said: "There is some indication that some of the patients are presenting with mild disease. There is still suggestion of increased hospitalisations across South Africa but this could be the sheer fact that we have more cases, and if you have more cases you have more hospitalisations."

Well one vaccine manufacturer, Moderna, foresees a "material drop" in vaccine efficacy, but based on what we know so far says we must wait for the data, and should not rush to redesign the vaccines as that drop may not be dramatic. However, in the UK an initial study suggests that the 'booster jab' (both Pfizer and Moderna), offer good protection against the Omicron variant, although the evidence so far is that the new variant can still reinfect people who have had Covid-19, or are double vaccinated, with half of those infected with the new variant in the UK being people already double-jabbed.

Also in the UK, Professor Calum Semple, one of the UK governments SAGE group of advisors, said that the vaccines are 'still likely to protect you from severe disease', and that the new Covid variant is 'not a disaster' and some people may be 'hugely overstating the situation'. He added that 'You might get a snuffle or a headache or a filthy cold but your chance of coming into hospital or intensive care, or sadly dying, are greatly diminished by the vaccine and still will be going into the future.'

While Professor Chris Whitty, has said there is a 'reasonable chance' Covid-19 vaccinations could be less effective against the new strain of the virus. However, he added that whilst the Omicron variant appears to be highly transmissible, it is not yet clear how effective the vaccine will be as protection against it – But confirmed that those who are vaccinated or receive the booster jab, will still be less likely to become seriously ill.

In fact Professor Whitty has also said that he is more concerned about the current wave of infections caused by the Delta variant than the discovery of Omicron. He said the Delta variant was ‘undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas’. He confirmed that 'We’ve always known that new variants would crop up from time to time … but there’s an awful lot we don’t know and I think it’s probably not terribly helpful to speculate.’

So what can be deduced from this? Well this new variant wasn't unexpected, and is apparently a fairly mild form of the illness if you are reasonably healthy. Its also likely that if you are already double vaccinated you are unlikely to become seriously ill or require hospitalisation, but you can still catch the new variant which appears to be able to reinfect. 

However, the simple truth is that you pays your money and takes your chances in this crazy new world we live in .... I'm just glad that I kept all my masks. 

Note: I fact checked this post on Friday morning before publishing, but as this is a fluid situation readers should check again if reading this after 03/12/2021 

Update 8/12/2021: 

The studies on the Omicron variant continue a pace .... the latest suggests that:

1. Although the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may result in up to 40 times fewer neutralising antibodies against Omicron than against the original Covid strain, Omicron's ability to escape vaccine antibodies is "incomplete".
2. The results, based on blood tests from 12 people, were "better than expected".
3. Vaccination, combined with previous infection, could still neutralise against the variant.
4. Vaccination boosters may well still bring a significant benefit.

More data on how well the Pfizer jab works against Omicron is expected to be released shortly but there is no significant data yet on how the Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and other jabs hold up against the new variant.

The conclusion given once again by the World Health Organisation, is that the existing vaccines should still protect people who contract the Omicron variant from severe Covid cases.