Jaw Jaw Or War War?

The question of the week seems to be ....

NATO - Russia And Ukraine

..... Just what is Russian President, Vladimir Putin expecting to happen by his troops camping on the Ukrainian border?

It's a well known fact that he bemoans the collapse of the old Soviet Union (USSR) .... or at least the loss of the Russian Empire (which of course included what is now, Belarus, Kazhakstan and a few other smaller 'stans') and in particular biggest loss of all - The Ukraine. 

Russian Empire - Extended In To Europe

In recent years he has shown some willingness to try and exert influence over, or regain direct control over former territories of the USSR.

The USSR Mirrored Russian Empire Borders

I had a certain sympathy over the Crimea, which after all has a population mostly comprised of ethnic Russians (but with a significant number of Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar minorities), but which after initially being an autonomous republic inside the USSR in 1917, was eventually was handed to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SFSR in 1954, in an act of 'fraternal' friendship, but with scant regard to the wishes of the majority of the population. so 'correcting' that 'historical mistake', was at least understandable from Mr Putin's nationalistic point of view.

However his attempts to control, intimidate, or even invade former republics of the Soviet Union by insisting that they can't join NATO or hold military exercises near the border etc, are obviously demands that NATO, nor indeed the Ukraine and Georgia etc can accept. So his build up of 100,000 troops and vehicles around the Ukrainian border is unlikely to to achieve those aims. But as only he knows what he expects from this action, its maybe not the concession he's truly aiming for.

However it has led the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to state that Russia could attack Ukraine "on very short notice," and forced US President Biden to say he thinks Vladimir Putin will "move in" on the Ukraine, but does not want a "full-blown war". He has also warned that Russia would pay a "serious and dear price" for "testing" the West. However it appears that the West is not as united as all that. Some NATO countries are very dependent on Russian gas supplies, and so whilst a full blown invasion would be met with a "swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies" (what ever that might be), a limited incursion into the Ukraine would divide NATO into two camps.

However, in his rush to recreate the old glories of the USSR he forgets one thing .... as a lowly rank of lieutenant colonel in the KGB, before the collapse of the Soviet Union forced a change of career, he would never have risen to be leader of the USSR, if it had not fallen. Still, he now appears to feel that he can dictate terms that restricts future NATO membership (excluding Ukrainian and Georgian membership, and restricting NATO military exercises in Poland and the Baltic States etc).

So how worried should we be by this crisis? Well President Biden says that:

"The only war that is worse than one that's intended, is when it's unintended and what I'm concerned about is that this could get out of hand. I am hoping that Vladimir Putin understands that he is, short of a full-blown nuclear war, he is not in a very good position to dominate the world. And so I don't think he thinks that, but it is a concern." 

.... however he also said  

"Do I think he'll test the West? Test the United States and Nato as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will but I think he'll pay a serious and dear price for it. He's never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves."

But he also qualified this by saying the response would be proportionate to the level of incursion .... hmm, so is this a full response or not? I guess that's a question that the answer to that depends upon how Mr Putin interprets it.

We haven't heard from Mr Putin, but Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has said that his country did not "intend to take any aggressive actions. We will not strike, attack or invade Ukraine." He said the Americans could not force Russia to move its troops away from the Ukrainian border. "They are on our territory and we won't be making any changes to their movement because of external pressure." He also called on Washington to stop its military support for Ukraine, which he said posed a direct threat to Russian security.

There seems to be a strange sense of calm in the general public's of the Ukraine, Russia and Western countries ... whether this is a mass denial, or just an ignorant indifference to what's happening, I guess time will tell. 

But I can't help thinking of the build up to the first world war, when despite increasing tensions in June/July 1914, the general public's of Europe had no idea that they were about to be thrown into "The Guns of August" .... Over 14 million Europeans died in the war, while millions more suffered permanent disabilities (millions more died or were injured worldwide) ... the cultural shock of this event, weakened European colonial dominance in the world, and ushered in the rise of the USA.

The long term consequences if Europe is thrown in to non nuclear conflict again, are not entirely clear, but at the very least, those countries relying on Russian gas and oil will have to look elsewhere, and the resultant price rises for those commodities will throw the free world in to recession. Russia will be a Western pariah state, and will lose its Western markets for its oil, gas etc. 

The possibility of armed conflict will just accelerate the rise of China ..... But of course if it goes nuclear, then these will be the least of our worries.