Well, the 48 hours in Russia last weekend have been interesting, to say the least.
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| Wagner Rebellion In Russia |
An insurrection by the Wagner Group of mercenaries almost reached Moscow, stopping just 124 miles (200km) away on the M4 motorway. They were cheered and applauded by civilian onlookers in the city of Rostov that they captured (or liberated, depending on the point of view).
President Putin declared it "a stab in the back of our country," and told the nation that "What we are facing is precisely treason," and that those behind the military mutiny had betrayed Russia and would answer for it.
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| Putin's Next Move Will be Watched |
But when the Russian army failed to stop the Wagner mercenaries advance, he had to offer a complete amnesty to the Wagner soldiers, and a safe exile in Belarus to their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The insurrection (or as Yevgeny Prigozhin called it "a march for justice", definitely not a coup), was apparently prompted by efforts by the Kremlin and Defence Minister to take the Wagner Group from under Prigozhin's control by making its troops sign regular army contracts.
These regular soldiers terms are nowhere near what the Wagner Groups soldiers are currently being paid. So dissatisfaction from both the fighters, and the Groups leadership.
Where this leaves Putin and his war is not clear, as the 25,000 Wagner mercenaries were the most effective of Russia's troops in the Ukraine. If they refuse to sign the standard military contracts in any large numbers, then that would inevitably hit the effectiveness of Russia's forces in the Ukraine.
Whatever the outcome, the Russian leadership was made to look unstable, with Prigozhin's rise to power emblematic of the power structures built by President Vladimir Putin over the past 24 years. Like his predecessors (Tsar and red Tzar alike), Putin has built up elites who compete for his favour ... but this time it has been allowed to flare up in to open violence, and even threatened Putin's hold on power.
No doubt there will be reprisals for this challenge to Putin's authority, with some doubts on how long Mr Prigozhin will be on this planet, while there must be some nervousness amongst some of the upper elites in Putin's inner circle.
Update 24/08/20023:
Well today we found out, that the decision appears to be a plane crash near Moscow in which all 10 died, amongst them one Yevgeny Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin .... job done. Eight innocents killed as collateral damage to take out two regime opponents. End of problem.
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