Bric-à-Brac

The Chinese are trying to develop an alternative world order, in which theocracies, dictators, autocrats and semi-democrats (the 'semi' being they respect it only when they win), can feel safe from Western interference.

Bric-à-Brac

They are doing this via the vehicle of the BRIC group of countries .....

The original membership of this group was Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (hence the acronym BRICS) .... an interesting grouping to be sure.

• Brazil: A democratic but increasingly unstable country, that wanted to be at the Western big table but has usually fallen short economically, despite its resources, mainly because of internal wealth distribution issues.
• Russia: A land where democracy has never taken root, and that is now once again under the iron rule of an autocrat, who is now waging a war he can only hope will end in stalemate. Now exposed as only a nuclear weapons and oil super power.
  
• India: A was once a nascent feudal democracy, but now apparently facing one party Hindu nationalist rule under the BJP ... aspirations to world leadership e.g spaceships to the moon, but beset by internal issues (Muslim minority, poverty, climate change, and massive over-population to name but four). The uneven economic growth of the past 30 years, has often left the rich richer and the poor poorer .... a recipe for future trouble.
• China: A one party communist dictatorship that brooks no opposition, but also an undoubted economic and military super power, and finally
• South Africa: The 'rainbow nation' .... a one party, very corrupt state, which now has all the issues that every black African and black diaspora state has, and is going backwards fast, both economically and politically, after a promising start under the late Nelson Mandela.

But not content with the current rogues gallery, China has insisted on expanding the group from January 2024, with six new countries - Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates ....

1. Argentina: Like Brazil, has occasionally flickered with hopes of being a Western big boy, but failed .... an unstable democracy, and economically a basket case, with international debt defaults always just a regime change away. Inflation currently 140%. (Minerals and Food)
   
2. Egypt: Over populated, morally, politically and economically bankrupt ... with an army coup leader currently the 'life' president. (Suez Canal - Cut Europe Shipping Off?)
   
3. Iran: A theocratic dictatorship, that suppresses internal opposition with extreme violence. Economically bankrupt (partly due to US sanctions), hostage taking, and exporting violence to the rest of the region, whilst trying to build nuclear weapons. (Oil and Gas)
   
4. Saudi Arabia: A royal dictatorship, with no democracy. Ignores diplomatic rules and currently trying to buy world opinion via sports (golf, cricket and football) by using its vast oil money reserves, and destabilising everything it touches in the process. (Oil and Gas)
5. United Arab Emirates: Despite also being largely a group of royal dictatorships, is actually showing a few signs of democratic, liberal progress, but these are weak threads of change and could easily be snuffed out if the region goes hardline Islamic again. (Oil and Gas)
6. Ethiopia: A country prone to famines and civil wars but now controls the headwaters of the Nile with a vast hydro-electric dam, (mineral wealth, electric power to spare??)
   

These are the states that China hopes will counter Western dominance, by persuading them that they have one thing in common, that is that they all want a similar future i.e that none of them want to live in a Western-dominated world.

Indeed what they want in fact, is an alternative world order, in which autocrats can feel safe and secure in their own countries, and where they can develop without the conditions imposed by the democratic Americans and European powers .... conditions that Russian President Putin, describes as "neo-liberalism". But crucially they also nearly all have resources that China wants to secure for its own economic hegemony .... fuel, food, minerals .... and possibly a economic weapon in the form of the Suez Canal.

Of course this political and economic dream of China ignores certain realities:

• The fact that China is the major player in the group, or 
• That the Saudi regime relies on the US for certain security issues e.g to defend it like it did for Kuwait, or 
• That if the US sanctioned Argentina, Brazil etc, then they would probably collapse.
• Ethiopia is very unstable politically and ethnically with frequent civil wars, and
• That Russia is waging a war of conquest against its neighbour and may be fighting it for a decade, or that it could even trigger a wider conflict.

So despite China's desire to set up an alternative world grouping, its unlikely that this diverse group will ever have much common ground politically, or even economically, apart from a desire to avoid Western values or banking (IMF).

Brazil for example wants the group to have a common currency (as presumably does Argentina, so they can avoid IMF rules), to be guaranteed (bankrolled) by a reluctant China, and the Saudi's, who don't want to be strapped to economic corpses. India still wants and needs Western trade, because it has a tense relationship with China over their common border, and in reality its exports are mainly outside the expanded BRIC group. Iran and the Saudi's often have different religious ideological, political and economic regional aims (and bankroll opposite military groups e.g. In Yemen and Syria),despite a thaw in relations. Egypt is forever looking for a financial bail out ... usually from a very reluctant Saudi regime who know it won't be repaid. 

So while on paper its looks like China moving ever further in to the worlds faces, it may be more a talking shop than anything else ..... so I don't think either the USA nor indeed the Europeans will lose too much sleep over the BRIC expansion .....but who knows?