Crime And Punishment USA

Violent crime and gun offences (including gun murders) have seen a large drop since they peaked in the early 1990's.

US Violent Crime Lower Than 1990's But Went Up In Lockdown.

This drop has included the major cities, no matter which party controlled them.

So the law and order political card, was not as effective as it had been in the 1980's through to the 1990's. But the lockdowns and economic disruption (which has hit the lower paid jobs, disproportionately harder - which impacts the minority groups harder as well), has had a perhaps not totally unexpected impact on the violent crime figures. Home lockdowns will have led to more domestic violence, mental health issues and youth criminality in the USA, just as it has done elsewhere in the world.

Murder Rate Jumped Sharply During Lockdowns

So gun violence and homicides in USA have spiked across major cities, but this from recent historic lows ... but of course this traditionally plays into the Republicans narrative on Joe Biden and the Democrats being soft on crime. The underlying assumption being that more of the Democratic parties core voting group (Hispanics and Blacks) are more likely to be the perpetrators of crimes (as well as probably being the highest number of its victims), and therefore Republicans are tougher on crime, and somehow more law abiding.

Now I don't know if anyone has checked the voting tendencies of those incarcerated for crimes or who have been incarcerated for criminal acts (where they can vote), but its a fact that the Democrats have a large section of the party who advocate the BLM demands to 'de-fund the police'. This does not play well for Democrats standing for re-election in the midterms next year, and so we are seeing attempts to row the boat back to shore on the de-fund the police demands.

In New York, a city that always votes Democrat, the next Democratic nominee for Mayor is a black former policeman, who has promised to be tough on crime, and denounced the "de-fund the police" movement during the campaign. This as police figures showed crime in the city rose by 22 per cent in the past 12 months, and that shootings were up 73 per cent. In something of a clue as to where most of this crime increase is actually taking place, Eric Adams said  "If black lives really matter, it can't only be against police abuse. It has to be against the violence that's ripping apart our communities."

In a parallel development, the Democratic governor of New York state, Andrew Cuomo, declared a disaster emergency order to address rising gun violence there. The state had 51 shootings over the 4th of July holiday weekend alone. Governor Cuomo stated that "If you look at the recent numbers, more people are now dying from gun violence and crime than Covid," While in Chicago, 100 people were shot (18 fatally) in the city over the same holiday weekend - Chicago is like a war zone by European standards, with 364 people having been killed this year so far. That is 5 more than 2020. Nationwide gun deaths were over 230 over the same weekend.

Whilst Republicans may point at the cities run by Democrats where some police de-funding has occurred, as being the cause of the rise in gun crimes etc (Mitch McConnell: “These bone-headed decisions are the direct result of an anti-law enforcement fad that has swept through the political left like a wildfire,” ), in fact the increases are being seen in Republican run cities as well as Democrat run ones, and even in cities where police funding actually rose for 2020.

So while there are reported as being big increases in the homicide rate in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Portland, Oregon — all cities currently led by Democrats. Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Fresno, California, have also seen more killings so far in 2021. Both cities have Republican mayors. Similarly in Houston, and Nashville, both led by Democratic mayors, killings have increased, despite funding for police increasing in both. In Nashville homicides have spiked 50% so far this year over last.

In fact the the murder rate in the United States rose from 5 murders per 100,000 people in 2019, to roughly 6.2 per 100,000 in 2020, according to preliminary data from the FBI. Whilst that is a significant jump, its nothing like the complete law and order collapse being suggested in some quarters as the rate was closer to 10 per 100,000 as recently as 1991.

The danger for Joe Biden is that the 2020 trend appears to be continuing in to 2021, with the New York Times reporting that a sample of 37 cities with data for the first three months of the year, shows an 18 per cent increase in murders compared to the same time period in 2020.

His Presidency could be determined by just three of the items on his agenda. 

1. Border Immigration from South America, 
2. The Afghanistan withdrawal/retreat of US troops, and 
3. Crime in the major urban areas. 

If these play badly with voters next year, his party could lose control of both the Senate and Congress and hobble his presidency for the remainder of his first term.