Friday 15 October 2021

Put Out To Pasture

China, like many societies is facing an ageing workforce, and also youth unemployment issues.

China's Graduates Unemployment Rate
China's Youth Unemployment Rate Higher Amongst Graduates

How they deal with this is a major concern to the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), whose unelected rule can only be justified if the population is, by and large, content to let them retain power.
 
Obviously, just like the Roman Emperors of old, who faced similar issues of legitimacy over their rule, the answer they have arrived at is 'bread and circuses'. In this case a rising standard of living and life length, combined with a consumer lifestyle that is catching up with the rest of the world.
 
But there is a cost to this, and someone has to pay the price .... it appears that some women in China feel that they are one of the groups paying that price. I didn't know this, but Communist China has laws that prevent women in most industries from working past the age of 50, while certain professional women (which groups are classed as 'professional' is not actually defined in the law), are allowed an extension, but are still prevented from working past the age of 55. They are all forced to retire from their occupations and professions when they reach those ages, and that is that. 

The system was set up in the early 1950's, when the average lifespan for the majority of the population was just 50 years of age, and most women had six children, so the system actually was reasonably fair on those who wanted a bit of retirement time before they died .... however China has made very rapid strides in increasing average lifespans, especially in the last 30 years and a women's average lifespan in China now is in her late 70's.

This reasoning behind this when the law was introduced, was to ensure that younger people could find employment opportunities (but not at the expense of men, just women). Many today realise that these employment practises are a waste of talent (or human capital as they might put it), but the CCP fears having too many older people blocking jobs for younger people (18-24 yrs of age), when jobs are still in short supply (compared with the number of those coming out of education who are seeking work) .... as youth unemployment leads to dissatisfaction and even revolutions. 

Chinese Women Face Early Retirement Age Discrimination
Chinese Women Face Early Retirement Age Discrimination

However, there is a revolution of another kind brewing .... many women have concentrated on careers in the last few decades (usually with only one child to look after under the rules, even after that one child law was relaxed), and they are not happy at being forced in to unemployment. They are taking these complaints to court, and records indicate that this is happening in increasing numbers (over a thousand cases registered since 2019, compared with less than 800 in the previous decade).

But the courts are largely rejecting the cases, although given the obviously increasingly angry women, who use equality with men as a key argument, it might be hard for the courts to keep denying women equal rights. However the problem for the government is that whilst the official unemployment rate for the population as a whole is about 5 per cent, the official unemployment rate for those under the age of 24 is about 13.8 per cent. 
 
This is compounded by the fact that as China's economic miracle is based upon export-driven manufacturing, construction and large energy, and capital intensive heavy industries, the labour market is heavily skewed towards manual low prestige blue collar jobs. But those economic areas, traditionally don't offer the sort of white-collar jobs numbers suitable to sop up all the 8.7 million university graduates that China now pours out per annum.
 
These highly educated college and university leavers are the group most likely to get dissatisfied with being unemployed, but are extremely reluctant to take jobs in low prestige occupations. Whereas the low-skilled workers with a primary and junior secondary education, can find jobs easily enough in the transportation, construction and catering industries and as a consequence, youth unemployment rates are higher for higher educated young workers, than for those who leave education with little more than the basic qualifications.
 
So whilst a lot of people may well sympathise with the 'waste of human capital' that forcing experienced women workers to retire represents, the CCP will always have one eye on all those young educated people with no jobs ..... idle hands are the devils playthings, or so it is said, and the CCP wouldn't want any of those intelligent, but idle hands, to turn to activities that challenged their rule .... so the women will continue to to have to accept being forced to retire.

The official excuse given by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (which sets state retirement policy), is that "The Chinese economy doesn't allow both young and old to be fully employed." .... but unemployment and dissatisfaction, a revolution can cause.

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