It appears that the Brexit political log jam, that has been British blocking politics ever since the 8th of June 2017 ....
..... when the then Prime Minister, Theresa May, very unwisely gambled on a snap election to gain a larger majority than the 12 she had inherited from previous PM David Cameron.
Of course she ended up losing her majority, and was forced to rely solely upon the loyalty of her own party, and the total support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), to even hope to get her Brexit agreement through. Well that was at best hopeful, and more realistically, totally wishful thinking.
She had two wings of her party who would scupper any agreement - the Bremainers (those in the party who didn't want to leave the EU), who would attempt to scupper any attempt to leave without a deal, and the full blown Brexiteers (those in the party who want to leave the EU without a deal), for whom breaking the union over the Northern Ireland 'backstop'' was complete anathema, as it also was for her partners in the DUP.
These three blocks, combined with a Labour Party (which was largely ignoring the fact that many Labour supporters voted heavily for Brexit), meant that she was doomed to deliver nothing. After two years Boris Johnson replaced her as both Conservative Party leader, and Prime Minister .... he tried to renegotiate Mrs May failed agreement. He offered MP's in Parliament the chance to accept the new deal - it was rejected. He offered them the chance to leave the EU without any deal - that was also rejected, and finally he tried to initiate a general election, which was also initially rejected.
It appeared that those opposing the referendum result had finally brought Britain to a standstill, but hadn't got the nerve to do what they really wanted to, which was to just cancel Brexit. They bleated on about a 'peoples vote' aka another referendum, but that was all just a smoke screen to try and cancel Brexit.
However in the end, they have bowed to the inevitable, and accepted the 12th of December 2019 as the date for a UK General Election. How this will turn out, is anyone's guess:
Jeremy Corbyn is a poor Labour Party leader, but he may get the same campaign response he did in 2017, when surprisingly, backed by a youth vote, he held his ground, and helped reduce the Conservative majority to a deficit .... but even then, he never looked like getting a majority himself. Since then his party has been mired in Anti-Semitism charges, as well as bullying claims, and it seems unlikely that he will get a Labour Party majority this time either, despite reports of a voter registration surge (but stranger things have happened).
Boris Johnson has proved to be far more self assured than Mrs May, and certainly better at negotiating with the EU (even though hampered by the No exit without a deal legislation, that this renegade parliament passed this year). He may well also prove to be better in a lightening election campaign, and get a working majority that can undo the no deal legislation, and take the UK out of the European Union, with or without a deal.
As for the others .... well the next biggest block in the Westminster parliament, are the Scottish National Party (SNP), and it doesn't look like that will change this time either, as Scottish Labour are moribund. The SNP are (1). Anti-Tory, and (2). Anti-UK - so those facts won't change. The Liberal Democrats are polling around 18%, but this a weak support, and may collapse if this is a big two battle. As you might expect, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) are reportedly in "negotiations" about entering in to electoral pacts in certain constituencies, to ensure a pro-Remain candidate is elected in those constituencies. The Brexit Party, with a weak 11 per cent in polls, may well decide to only fight in seats where pro-Remain candidates are standing, but is demanding a full Brexit, rather than any deal.
From my point of view, this election allows me to finally talk about UK politics again .... I stopped in 2017, when the paralysis in Parliament began .... I am hopeful that the ice sheets are moving again, and that normal politics may be about to resume.
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| Theresa May Gambled - And Lost In 2017 .... |
..... when the then Prime Minister, Theresa May, very unwisely gambled on a snap election to gain a larger majority than the 12 she had inherited from previous PM David Cameron.
Of course she ended up losing her majority, and was forced to rely solely upon the loyalty of her own party, and the total support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), to even hope to get her Brexit agreement through. Well that was at best hopeful, and more realistically, totally wishful thinking.
She had two wings of her party who would scupper any agreement - the Bremainers (those in the party who didn't want to leave the EU), who would attempt to scupper any attempt to leave without a deal, and the full blown Brexiteers (those in the party who want to leave the EU without a deal), for whom breaking the union over the Northern Ireland 'backstop'' was complete anathema, as it also was for her partners in the DUP.
These three blocks, combined with a Labour Party (which was largely ignoring the fact that many Labour supporters voted heavily for Brexit), meant that she was doomed to deliver nothing. After two years Boris Johnson replaced her as both Conservative Party leader, and Prime Minister .... he tried to renegotiate Mrs May failed agreement. He offered MP's in Parliament the chance to accept the new deal - it was rejected. He offered them the chance to leave the EU without any deal - that was also rejected, and finally he tried to initiate a general election, which was also initially rejected.
It appeared that those opposing the referendum result had finally brought Britain to a standstill, but hadn't got the nerve to do what they really wanted to, which was to just cancel Brexit. They bleated on about a 'peoples vote' aka another referendum, but that was all just a smoke screen to try and cancel Brexit.
 |
| Boris Johnson Election Bomb - To Break The Political Log Jam ..... |
However in the end, they have bowed to the inevitable, and accepted the 12th of December 2019 as the date for a UK General Election. How this will turn out, is anyone's guess:
Jeremy Corbyn is a poor Labour Party leader, but he may get the same campaign response he did in 2017, when surprisingly, backed by a youth vote, he held his ground, and helped reduce the Conservative majority to a deficit .... but even then, he never looked like getting a majority himself. Since then his party has been mired in Anti-Semitism charges, as well as bullying claims, and it seems unlikely that he will get a Labour Party majority this time either, despite reports of a voter registration surge (but stranger things have happened).
Boris Johnson has proved to be far more self assured than Mrs May, and certainly better at negotiating with the EU (even though hampered by the No exit without a deal legislation, that this renegade parliament passed this year). He may well also prove to be better in a lightening election campaign, and get a working majority that can undo the no deal legislation, and take the UK out of the European Union, with or without a deal.
As for the others .... well the next biggest block in the Westminster parliament, are the Scottish National Party (SNP), and it doesn't look like that will change this time either, as Scottish Labour are moribund. The SNP are (1). Anti-Tory, and (2). Anti-UK - so those facts won't change. The Liberal Democrats are polling around 18%, but this a weak support, and may collapse if this is a big two battle. As you might expect, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) are reportedly in "negotiations" about entering in to electoral pacts in certain constituencies, to ensure a pro-Remain candidate is elected in those constituencies. The Brexit Party, with a weak 11 per cent in polls, may well decide to only fight in seats where pro-Remain candidates are standing, but is demanding a full Brexit, rather than any deal.
From my point of view, this election allows me to finally talk about UK politics again .... I stopped in 2017, when the paralysis in Parliament began .... I am hopeful that the ice sheets are moving again, and that normal politics may be about to resume.
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