President Trump appears to have no apparent exit ramp from the attacks on Iran ...
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| Wall Street Journal Headline - Exit Iran War |
D.M a commentor last week, reported that CNN has an article that stated "Trump might just mirror his domestic approach by declaring victory, walking away and leaving everyone else to deal with the consequences. Trump’s signature move is to tear down established structures before seeing where the pieces fall and finding some way to declare a win."
But that approach will leave the Iranian mullahs in charge and they will still be left as dangerous as ever, and still holding an estimated 790lbs of highly enriched uranium (with the missiles to deliver it), and if its possible, even more hate in their hearts. So sooner or later either the US and Israel will have to put boots on the ground to seize that uranium stockpile, or repeat these bombing campaigns every 5 to 6 years.
Quotes From A Florida Press Conferences Last Monday Night:
President Trump admitted that his administration was "nowhere near" making a decision on whether to order US troops into Iran as:
"I think the war is very complete, pretty much. We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. Then, I think you'll see it's going to be a short term excursion." He went on to say: "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. We go forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all."
He also added that he wants to ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weaponry "for a very long time" - which to be honest is a much bigger task, and perhaps not one he will undertake, but rather leave for someone else, that is if any future US president can ever muster such a coalition, after Trumps admin has gone (given the loss of European good will, Trump and Vance have engendered).
So this is attack on Iran seems to be a highly speculative one, one that's definitely degraded Iran militarily, certainly, but not going to have removed the regime, or ushered in prospects of peace in the region. The quotes about having "won" and the "war is very complete, pretty much," and "going to be a short term excursion," are sort of suggesting that President Trump is as CNN suggested "declaring victory," prior to "walking away and leaving everyone else to
deal with the consequences".
The election of Khamenei II as the new supreme leader of Iran (“God’s grace became manifest,” supporters chanted in Tehran the morning after Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment “Khamenei became young again.”), will be as bad as his father, and the Iranian people will suffer even more economic and political degradation, as sanctions, corruption, and internal violence at the hands of their leadership continues apace.
To be fair to Trump, short of a full ground invasion with a coalition of the willing ala Iraq or Kuwait (but its not Trumps style to build coalitions - he breaks them - or to share the limelight), then its hard to see how a purely aerial war will ever force a regime change, so perhaps this attack was simply the best and only way of degrading Iran's war abilities sufficiently for a few more years, in the hope that tougher sanctions and societal poverty, will force the current regime to change or collapse.
Its a bit rich that with the Straits of Hormuz closed, and gas prices in USA up, which apparently Trump's planners hadn't predicted, he's now trying to get NATO member states and other allies such as Japan and Korea to police it.
ReplyDeleteHe just can't get his thoughts to be coherent. Israel and the USA start a war, can't find a way to claim anything except a technical victory, and want others to keep the vital waterway of the Straits open, while they leave the scene.
As mentioned in your post, 'declaring victory, walking away and leaving everyone else to deal with the consequences'.
He's lashed out at everyone for not backing him, despite it being a private war undertaken by us and Isreal against the advice of others.
DeleteI fear that we have at least another two and a half years of this, and who knows what the world will be like by then. NATO will likely be gone, and we will only be friends with Isreal. Its very worrying for many Americans as well as other countries.
That exit ramp must seem a long way away after the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, announced his resignation over the war in Iran, stating that the country "posed no imminent threat to our nation."
DeleteIs it me or is President Trump acting ever more erratically?
DeleteIn reply to the thrust to all 3 comments. Obviously this is not a NATO war, so why Trump thinks that they should involve themselves in it, is at the very least strange. Its as though President Trump thinks the alliance is of vassal states to the USA who do as he says like emperors of old.
I notice that South Korea and Japan have resisted the calls as well. He's now suggested just walking away and leaving it up to others to decide whether to keep the strait open, or not, as they wish, because the US doesn't use oil shipped from that region (disregarding that oil prices are set globally so US prices rise as well in line with international price rises).
As China and India are large users, would they escort shipping, I doubt it, but they might escort their own tankers, giving them an advantage over US allies.
As for an exit ramp, well I think Trump is close to declaring victory, and just turning away as though this never happened. Whether that reopens the strait or not, is a matter of guess work. Iran may have no interest in keeping it closed to non friendly tankers, but that is something only they know.
Many thanks Lisa, Frankie and Anon for the comments.
Runaway and lave it to others is now coming soon. 'Trump then says it "will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!"
ReplyDelete"If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.
"Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them."'
I assume this refers to Trumps recent wind it up comment, and leaving the Hormuz straits to others to sort out. He's pretty desperate to declare objectives completed, goals achieved, mission accomplished but at the moment it would look pretty weak if Iran can still make nuclear bombs and close the oil trade in the strait thus pushing gas up in the USA. But one way or another it will have to end. Thanks for the comment.
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