Humans 10,000 yrs in the future

According to latest evolutionary theory findings, humans split from the common ancestor with the Chimpanzees, about 5.4 million years ago which is considerably less time ago than was previously thought to be the case.

 

Evolution From Apes To Human

There was obviously a long period of hybridisation, in which the two proto-species could interbreed, and this cross transfer of genes helped develop the final species of Homo Sapiens.

 

Why am I discussing this? Well it’s not because I want to have a go at the biblical “Creationists” of all religions, I think that they are fairly scary, but basically pretty naive, with their belief in everything appearing ‘fully formed’ 6,000 years ago (Sunday October 23, 4004 BC to be precise, as calculated by Archbishop James Ussher), and that Dinosaurs were co-existing with humans in a Biblical period of miracles. It sounds pretty stupid even as it’s being mouthed, and it takes a very big leap of faith to believe it, faith being the key word.

I am not even knocking the more subtle, but equally stupid ‘unintelligent design’ brigade. They don’t set the timescales that the out and out creationists do, and they pretend that the ‘intelligence’ behind the ‘design’ maybe isn’t ‘God’, but some ‘unknown or unnamed source who might be god’.

Amongst many other issues, this 'Myth Theory' still has the problem that this unknown, or unnamed source, must have existed before the universe did, so where was that then? If the universe was already here, did the intelligent designer just create the earth and moon and all who live upon them? The questions keep coming thick and fast, and ultimately come back to the faith word again.

No, what brought this blog on was the news that a leading geneticist believes that the human race may well be heading for new split in the very near (in genetic terms), period of 10,000 years in the Future.

His speculations are interesting, as he thinks we will all be basically a one colour race by the end of the current millennium, possibly with just some pockets of regressive populations in isolated areas. By the year 3000, humans may well be ‘giants’ between 6ft and 7ft tall, he predicts, while life-spans will have extended to 120 years.

Physical appearance, driven by indicators of health, youth and fertility, will improve, he says, while men will exhibit symmetrical facial features, look more athletic, and have squarer jaws, deeper voices and bigger penises. Women, on the other hand, will develop lighter, smooth, hairless skin, large clear eyes, pert breasts, glossy hair, even features, and be happy with the larger penises presumably.

He suspects that further in the future, say 10,000 years in the future, the human race will start to decline due to an over reliance on medical drug treatments and labour saving technology, and split into two or maybe three (if the pockets of ‘old humans’ still exist) sub species, with an intelligent 'over man' and a less intelligent 'under man'. These will be physically different with a tall over class and smaller underclass much like the speculations of H.G. Wells in “The Time Machine”.... The Eloi and the Morlocks

Finally, spoiled by gadgets designed to meet their every need, they could come to resemble domesticated animals. Physically, they would start to appear more juvenile. Chins would recede, as a result of having to chew less on processed food.

There are a number of problems with this kind of speculations, in that predictions over a period as short as 30 years are usually wrong, so over 1,000 or 10,000 years are even less reliable.

Firstly, colour: It’s hard to see the Orientals cross breeding with African Blacks to the point that they will both become “Coffee coloured”, and the same for the Indian Sub Continents populations. The white race is busily not breeding enough to ensure their own survival, so the US and Europe may well become coffee coloured as the colour of the only survivors.

Secondly, Height and the Time Scales: The year 3,000 AD is less distant in the future, than the Romans of the past are from us now, and we are not markedly different from a Roman, or anyone else of that period, apart from average height. Studies collated by Jonathan Philip Roth have shown that the average male height in the Roman Imperial period was 170 cm. (5' 7"), which was the average UK height in the 1950's. So in 2,000 years we have gained between 2 and 3 inches, and most of that in the last 40 years, probably because the average protein diet is a lot better. 

 

A Bantam Regiment 1914

If we head back to the Norman conquest of a 1,000 years ago, the average soldier on both sides was taller than those British soldiers in the Boer War, where recruitment standards had to be lowered to as little as 5 foot to find men. During the industrial revolution and urbanisation, average population heights shrank e.g. In 1860 the average height for a soldier was 5’8", but by the start of the Zulu War in 1879 it had dropped to 5’4" and by 1899 it was nearer 5 foot. In fact the British raised regiments in 1914 such as the Cheshire Bantams whose average height was just 5 foot.

Any changes are attributable entirely to diet and protein intakes over the periods. The average Japanese were 5 inches smaller than the Americans in 1945, now they are less than 2 inches smaller, because they eat better food and have a higher calorie intake.

In fact a look at Japan and China, plus Taiwan and South Korea show this process at work. After 1945 they were all the same heights, now there are marked differences in heights. If this is diet and calorie intake related, then we can expect the Chinese to catch up, while Korea / Taiwan / and Japan become the same as the West. Interestingly there appears to be evidence that South Koreans males are 4 inches taller on average than their North Korean counterparts because of dietary differences in the last 50 years.

Apart from average height there has been no big change in the last 2,000 years, so it’s likely that that’s going to be the only difference in a 1,000 years time.

OK, let’s move 10,000 years into the future. This is twice the period we are from the ancient Egyptians, but still easily within the time scales of the appearance of modern man. In that same period backwards we have shown no greater degree of intelligence or physical changes, and may even be similar in height to them, as this was the end of the hunter gatherer societies. Stature in Scotland over the Centuries indicates that the mean height of males in the NEOLITHIC PERIOD (4000–2500 BC) was 170 cm i.e. the same as the average Roman 4,000 years later. Give or take a centimetre this remained the same height through to the early medieval period (AD 400–1000) i.e. the Norman Conquest

The only change since modern man evolved is accumulated knowledge, not native intelligence, and it’s hard to see that we are going be markedly different in 10,000 years time if we haven’t changed in the previous 10,000. Evolution may be inexorable in its actions but, and this is the important point, it shows no signs of accelerating over a period of time. Rather it appears to be mostly over aeons with very odd spurts (under great pressures such as population threatening changes in the environment), certainly not inside 10,000 years.

If we have not changed much, if at all, in the last 10,000 years then why would that suddenly kick in, in the next 10,000 years?

The rise of computers and machinery is not likely to turn us into domesticated animals, nor lessen the use of intelligence, and may actually accelerate the growth of brains because we will need them more to control our robotic societies. Physical changes may occur, but these will be attributable to activities rather than evolution, much like height has been linked to diet.

We have been getting less hairy for 50,000 years, but the hair loss in that period has not been very noticeable, so this prediction, though true, is not going to be something a visitor from our time would remark on. As for women getting lighter skins, its hard to square that with us all turning ‘coffee coloured’ in the same period.

If populations stopped moving round the globe e.g an environmental collapse, the genes for UV protection in the very Northern (or presumably very Southern areas) would mutate and skin colours would turn even African people lighter over a long enough period (as happened 40,000 years ago), but if the populations keep mixing no one will get lighter.

In modern people living in equatorial areas, dark skin and hair is needed to guard against skin cancer caused by strong UV radiation from the Sun. By contrast, pale skin - along with red or blond hair - appears to be the product of lower levels of sunlight present in areas further from the equator such as Europe.

Once you leave Africa, the selective pressure from UV radiation disappears. So any mutation that falls into the MC1R gene (that controls skin colours) is allowed to survive and spread through a population, but people with fair skin are able to generate more vitamin D, which may give them an evolutionary advantage in northern regions so white, paler skins develop.

Finally, if we look far into the future the human race may well lose their teeth (or some of them) because we are eating processed mush, but one has to suspect that we are bright enough to make that mush of variable textures so that a reasonable amount of chewing is required, we keep or teeth and muscles in our jaws.

Entertaining speculations, but easily countered by any number of alternative futures just as likely. I guess my point is that, although this kind of speculation is fun, it's just as easy to make a case for another future.

1,000 years into the future

• The white population is a bit darker due to a higher incidence of interracial breeding, but the vast majority of Africans, South Asians and Orientals are unchanged in colour.
• In non agrarian societies the average male will be less fit than before, because they spend more time on the keyboard and less on physical activities.
• More people (women and men) will go bald as there is no purpose to hair.
• There will be some average height increases world wide as areas where diet improves catch up, but the average will still be around 6ft because there is less advantage on being tall in societies that work via computers.

10,000 years into the future.

• People may well be born with no hair, and stay that way.
• There are not two or three 'races', because the gene pool is more resistant to alteration than predicted, and the major divisions are in evidence, although there may be more concentration on particularly popular or successful Archetypes for each race. (The Beckham affect).
• There will be considerably less people on the planet, after the peak of 3,000 AD, but there will also be less calories available per head, on a planet much reduced by environmental damage. The average height has reduced to 5'6" and continues falling to match the generally lower calorie intake.

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