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Monday 31 December 2007

2008 Predictions

It’s at this time of the year that we either make resolutions or predictions for the coming year ….. well I gave up cigarettes in May, and have lasted without slipping since, so that’s my annual resolution finally achieved….. I will have to find something new to break each year now.

That leaves predictions, so for what they are worth here is my Nostradamus impression for 2008 – It will interesting to see how far off I am next December.

The US will largely leave Iraq by June, and the country will head for civil war as fast as it can. By the time of the US elections the Shia’s will be backed by Iran, the Sunni’s by Syria (and Saudi Arabia), and the Turks will take their chance to kick the shit out of the Kurds.

The whole region will spiral towards Islamism or more extreme despotism, as regimes try and hang on to power. The US public will shrug, say “Wahdaya expect from towel heads?” and turn back to domestic concerns.

Hilary Clinton will beat Obama Barack for the Democrat slot, because he has one or two little secrets that he has lied about (or at least white washed), that will come out later, and she will beat whomever the Republicans eventually put up.

I suspect that despite her unpopularity with half the US, it will not stop her getting something of a landslide victory. The Hispanic democrat vote will tip the balance in Mid West seats for the first time (This will be a long term problem for the Republicans who either need to lock down the borders properly, or embrace Spanish!). I also predict she will be a one term president only.

The US economic meltdown will be avoided, mainly because no one can afford for the US economy to go to the pans …. The world’s bankers will chip in and keep the dollar afloat.

Iran will become the new regimes biggest problem, because Bush hasn’t got the clout to sort out the Mullahs anymore. He missed his chance in 2003, because he was too arrogant to take the offer the Iranians made then, when they thought the US would just carry on through Iraq and into Iran. The problem will not be left to Israel, as they don’t have the muscle to do the job permanently, and they don’t have the need to, they know that the US will not stand for a nuclear Mullah!

Talking of which, Pakistan is predicted by the CIA as likely to be a Taliban state by 2015 … recent events have only strengthened the predictions validity. What to do if the nuclear arsenal of over 100 warheads is threatened by Islamic forces? This problem could overshadow Iran in the next President’s in box.

Iran is theoretically a democracy, so it’s possible it will reform, but not ever give up its nuclear weapons …. However if the Pakistan solution shows that the West has got the nerve to act, they may just take a more pragmatic rather than confrontational line.

The EU will face a major crisis over Kosovo, when it backs the Albanian Muslim Mafia’s land grab from Christian Serbia. The Russians may well take a very belligerent line when this crisis occurs, and with the US and UK on overstretch, it would fall to the cowardly Germans and French to provide the forces, should warfare breakout again in the area, They won’t, and the Serbs must be aware that the US would never get a free hand to bomb again (The Russians would take it as a national weakness to let that happen again).

Putin will remain Czar in Russia for the foreseeable future in what ever guise it takes.

France will be more positively assertive in foreign affairs, with its much touted “Mediterranean Union”, but this is not likely to be popular at home, with Muslims and Arabs a big problem on the domestic front.

Israel and the Palestinians will talk about talks, but nothing will happen. The Israeli’s don’t have to do anything, and the Palestinians are just to dumb to realize what a number the other Arabs have done on them for fifty years, in telling them that they are a nation and not just Arabs. Keeping them locked into refugee camps and poverty for political reasons, instead of integrating them back into the Arab lands as full citizens. They still demand a return to 1967 borders, they will never get this, and each decade that passes just lessens their leverage.

Africa …. Ha Ha Ha … all the tiny reforms will revert back to nothing as African dictators such as the Kenyan President just fix election results as before. All the Aid money will end up in Switzerland as usual and the Chinese money will join it.

Thabo Mbeki will become a lame duck, and a populist such as Jacob Zuma will take power (He may lose out because of corruption charges, but may well be king maker). The days when another “intellectual” runs South Africa are over, so moderates such as Cyril Ramaphosa are likely to miss out. Mugabe will just carry on destroying Zimbabwe with the connivance of SA because the West are leaving it to an “African Solution” …. Much as it has done in the racial genocide called Darfur which will also carry on with no solution.

China will declare itself “Number One nation” at the next Olympics (and amazingly not one of its athletes will fail a drug test, despite all the seven foot Chinese men they have discovered and all the world records shattered by their women … East German style) …. Technically the EU will win twice as many medals, but that doesn’t count because “we are not one country” LOL

Finally, Cuba’s million year old dictator Castro will die this next year. He may or may not have ‘retired’ before this happens. There will not be any large changes as his brother Raul takes over again, supported by ‘socialist’ Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, but within five years the communist regime will have ceased to exist, except maybe in name only.

So there they are to be shot at ....

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Thursday 27 December 2007

The Great God Pan is Dead

The Great God Pan is dead” …. These are the words that Thamus, the Egyptian sailor, proclaimed to the world, during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius

Pan With Nymphs In Arcadia
Pan With Nymphs In Arcadia
 
..... Thamus was told the news by a divine voice, that wafted across the Aegean on an evening zephyr, blowing from the west one hot summer night, and that lamented the passing of "The Old God".

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

Once again Islam dominates the news with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto .... every finger points at everyone else in the killing, with no evidence. It seems likely that it's one of the religious groups (Taliban or Al-Queda) but it's possible that it's one of the myriad of groups who claim Allah's will (inshallah), for all the terror they commit in his name.

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated ....

As a nuclear power, Pakistan can't afford to play these unstable politics .... China, India, and the US are not likely to be comfortable with the religious groups getting control of the nuclear weapons. We may yet see Pakistan broken up, and or disarmed of its nuclear weapons by its neighbours, if it looks as though the army is about to lose control of the weapons.

There are still elements of the armed forces that have not been infiltrated by the Islamist's, and they are all that's between Pakistan and catastrophe, and it may be some of them who grab the weapons and pass them over to another, secure country, to save Pakistan from itself.

These Could Be In The Hands Of Madmen One Day ...

If they don't, then Pakistan stands on the brink of a possible war over control of its nuclear weapons in the next few months or years, if it goes down the wrong route.

Secret plans have already been drawn up according to the Sunday Express to remove more than 100 nuclear weapons from Pakistan to stop them falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. CIA chiefs fear that by 2015 the Taliban could be running the country, giving its radical leaders control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

The US has spent £50million helping Pakistan defend its nuclear missile sites from any possible Al Qaeda raid, fearing components could be stolen. Pentagon staff and Pakistan intelligence chiefs are also planning to spirit away the nuclear weapons if there was a real risk Islamic radicals might get control of them.

M J Gohel of the London- based think tank Asia-Pacific Foundation, said: “It’s only a matter of time before Al Qaeda or somebody sympathetic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is the weakest link in the chain. It is the most unstable nuclear country in the world.” Pakistan’s missiles would be unable to reach the US or UK and its American F-16 bombers would be detected before reaching any Western country.

Much more likely is nuclear material being used in a dirty bomb, that could be detonated in major cities such as London, Washington and New York. If Islamic extremists did win power in Pakistan and opted for nuclear attack, Israel would be the principal target – even though the fallout from a bomb would hit Palestinians as well as Jordan and Egypt.

It is also certain Israel has already made plans for such an attack. A pre-emptive strike on Pakistan’s nuclear bases would be a real possibility.

Updates:

There is still much press speculation over what's going to happen next with the news that the elections are likely to be postponed for two months.

The latest speculations are as follows:

  1. Ms Bhutto was about to be exposed as horribly corrupt, with a family fortune of over $730 million dollars in accounts across the world. Much of this wealth is based upon her Dubai based company Petroline FZC, that had huge contracts with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, many of which were aimed at bypassing UN sanctions.
  2. That Ms Bhutto had reportedly said that if it wasn't the Islamist's, then it would be the people who hung her father who would kill her. In this case the powers behind the army command council.
  3. In line with Ms Bhutto's fears, there is speculation that there is a government cover up over her death, in particular that "there was no gun man", and that she was killed by banging her head after the blast. This is hotly disputed by pictures and eye evidence.
  4. That the CIA now think that the Taliban will seize control of Pakistan by 2015, and have drawn up various plans to ensure that the nuclear weapons are not available to such a regime. Israel and India may also have plans for raids.
  5. On a slightly more upbeat note, the fact that the opposition leaders of other parties have attended Ms Bhutto's coffin, may signal a coming together of the democratic forces (or not).
I suspect that this is the story of 2008, and will unfold over a period of time. For an excellent resume of Ms Bhutto's life and times see William Dalrymples article.


Last update:

Of course the world has muddled on, and who remembers Mrs Bhutto now? Such is fame and celebrity.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is still a concern, and civilian control of the armed forces has not happened. No one really knows how stable this situation really is .... there's no warning when an iceberg tips, just look at Iran under the Shah.

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Monday 24 December 2007

Gordon Brown - Scottish Claim of Right

The "Scottish Claim of Right", signed by Gordon Brown in 1988, read:

"We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount.”
"We further declare and pledge that our actions and deliberations shall be directed to the following ends:
  • To agree a scheme for an Assembly or Parliament for Scotland;
  • To mobilise Scottish opinion and ensure the approval of the Scottish people for that scheme; and
  • To assert the right of the Scottish people to secure the implementation of that scheme."
Seems clear enough to me, that he has been living up to this pledge to put Scotlands interests as paramount over the interests of the rest of the United Kingdom.
As an Englishman, I see no evidence that he cares for anything in England, except the votes required to keep him as Prime Minister. Every week there is further evidence that Scotland has developed into a different country with policies now markedly divergent (and some would say more beneficial) from England.
In Scotland
  • Student Tuition fees and Grants are non repayable.
  • Precription charges are free.
  • Free care for the elderly.
  • No foundation hospitals, so they will not be saddled with PFI debts in the future.
  • Police get their pay on time.
  • NHS car park charges are capped.
In England, none of the above applies, and now we find that they are even going to get free beaver.

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Monday 17 December 2007

Saudi Rape Update

In the spirit of fairness, because I am quick enough to criticise the Saudis (the exporters of the Wahhabi brand of Islam that has blighted so many women's lives), so I should be fair when they do something decent for a change.

Today his Royal Highness King Abdullah has pardoned the woman who was gang raped. This pardon is not unfortunately, an attempt to change the ludicrous laws that condemn women to being considered as whores, for the slightest infringement of the honour codes (such as being raped), but it allows the woman to escape six months jail and the 200 lashes.

The King has undoubtedly succumbed to western pressure but its still the right thing to do and should be praised.

So on behalf of those who criticise your country I say well done.

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Friday 14 December 2007

2050 Predictions of Disaster

Were all Doomed I tells Ya!

Four Horsemen of Apocalypse (Durer)
That's the only response to the never ending tales from the ecologists, anthropologists, economists, historians, politicians and just about every indicator!

2050 is sure gonna be a bad year:

According to predictions made in this year alone

2050 Could See Cities Burn and Civilisation Collapse

Fortunately time for me will have run out before then, so I will carry on over consuming, safe in knowledge that it's a PC population who will have to pay for it LOL.

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Tuesday 11 December 2007

Laying the seeds, for the next European war.

There is speculation that for political reasons the US and EU are going to allow the Serbian province of Kosovo to declare independence ...
 
Kosovo Flag
Kosovo Flag
 
..... simply because in the last fifty years it has developed a Muslim majority.
 

Sunday 9 December 2007

Death Row Inmates Want Friends

While reading about the US Presidential race, I read about a guy called Wayne Dumond, whose release from prison after a serious set of crimes, was assisted by a Republican governor, and who went on to rape and murder again, thus blighting said Republican candidates campaign ….. As I researched into this case I came across a Canadian site “CCADP(Canadian Coalition Against the Death Penalty), which features requests for “Pen Pals” by Californian residents of death row.

Many On Death Row Will Never Make The Long Walk ...
Many On Death Row Will Never Make The Long Walk ...

What I found interesting was that the content of the requests was entirely unedited, and therefore indicated what the inmates thought about a number of subjects. The crime denial or contradictions in character were staggering, and I have selected (purely at random), a few examples from which I have edited only the email addresses.

Sunday 2 December 2007

Womens Rights - Lest We Forget Them

Women in the West fought a long campaign for the freedoms they have now in sexuality, dress, working opportunities and lifestyles. Homosexuals have followed a very similar path.

Women Of The World Unite .... Before You Lose It All
Women Of The World Unite .... Before You Lose It All

Starting with the right to vote and moving into the feminist movements of the 1960's and 70's, and the current gender economic rights campaigns now, the lot of women in the West, and by extension women world wide improved.

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