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Thursday 27 December 2007

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

Once again Islam dominates the news with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto .... every finger points at everyone else in the killing, with no evidence. It seems likely that it's one of the religious groups (Taliban or Al-Queda) but it's possible that it's one of the myriad of groups who claim Allah's will (inshallah), for all the terror they commit in his name.

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated ....

As a nuclear power, Pakistan can't afford to play these unstable politics .... China, India, and the US are not likely to be comfortable with the religious groups getting control of the nuclear weapons. We may yet see Pakistan broken up, and or disarmed of its nuclear weapons by its neighbours, if it looks as though the army is about to lose control of the weapons.

There are still elements of the armed forces that have not been infiltrated by the Islamist's, and they are all that's between Pakistan and catastrophe, and it may be some of them who grab the weapons and pass them over to another, secure country, to save Pakistan from itself.

These Could Be In The Hands Of Madmen One Day ...

If they don't, then Pakistan stands on the brink of a possible war over control of its nuclear weapons in the next few months or years, if it goes down the wrong route.

Secret plans have already been drawn up according to the Sunday Express to remove more than 100 nuclear weapons from Pakistan to stop them falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. CIA chiefs fear that by 2015 the Taliban could be running the country, giving its radical leaders control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

The US has spent £50million helping Pakistan defend its nuclear missile sites from any possible Al Qaeda raid, fearing components could be stolen. Pentagon staff and Pakistan intelligence chiefs are also planning to spirit away the nuclear weapons if there was a real risk Islamic radicals might get control of them.

M J Gohel of the London- based think tank Asia-Pacific Foundation, said: “It’s only a matter of time before Al Qaeda or somebody sympathetic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is the weakest link in the chain. It is the most unstable nuclear country in the world.” Pakistan’s missiles would be unable to reach the US or UK and its American F-16 bombers would be detected before reaching any Western country.

Much more likely is nuclear material being used in a dirty bomb, that could be detonated in major cities such as London, Washington and New York. If Islamic extremists did win power in Pakistan and opted for nuclear attack, Israel would be the principal target – even though the fallout from a bomb would hit Palestinians as well as Jordan and Egypt.

It is also certain Israel has already made plans for such an attack. A pre-emptive strike on Pakistan’s nuclear bases would be a real possibility.

Updates:

There is still much press speculation over what's going to happen next with the news that the elections are likely to be postponed for two months.

The latest speculations are as follows:

  1. Ms Bhutto was about to be exposed as horribly corrupt, with a family fortune of over $730 million dollars in accounts across the world. Much of this wealth is based upon her Dubai based company Petroline FZC, that had huge contracts with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, many of which were aimed at bypassing UN sanctions.
  2. That Ms Bhutto had reportedly said that if it wasn't the Islamist's, then it would be the people who hung her father who would kill her. In this case the powers behind the army command council.
  3. In line with Ms Bhutto's fears, there is speculation that there is a government cover up over her death, in particular that "there was no gun man", and that she was killed by banging her head after the blast. This is hotly disputed by pictures and eye evidence.
  4. That the CIA now think that the Taliban will seize control of Pakistan by 2015, and have drawn up various plans to ensure that the nuclear weapons are not available to such a regime. Israel and India may also have plans for raids.
  5. On a slightly more upbeat note, the fact that the opposition leaders of other parties have attended Ms Bhutto's coffin, may signal a coming together of the democratic forces (or not).
I suspect that this is the story of 2008, and will unfold over a period of time. For an excellent resume of Ms Bhutto's life and times see William Dalrymples article.


Last update:

Of course the world has muddled on, and who remembers Mrs Bhutto now? Such is fame and celebrity.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is still a concern, and civilian control of the armed forces has not happened. No one really knows how stable this situation really is .... there's no warning when an iceberg tips, just look at Iran under the Shah.

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