All Change Syria

Well Syria has just ended the long phase 1 of the civil war. The rebels have captured Damascus and Bashar al-Assad has taken his family and fled to Moscow and claimed asylum.

Ahmed al-Sharaa - De-facto New Leader Of Syria?

The key to his fall, seems to be his ignoring Turkeys attempts to negotiate a peaceful power swap or arrangement with the rebels. They finally lost patience with his refusal to shed any power, and silently authorised the rebels offensive by not saying no. 

Armenian's Have Long Memories

The Muslim Azerbaijanis aided by their allies the Turks have just conquered the Christian Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh (who were also abandoned by the Russians, who were supposed to be their allies and peace protectors) ....

Armenian Refugees - Sensible To Flee?

.... And 101,000 of the 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh (known as Arsakh's) flee from the fear of the rapes and killings that the takeover threatens for them.

Brutal Policing States

More than 1,300 people were arrested for unsanctioned protesting against the order, by Russian President Vladimir Putin, that a further 300,000 Russian men were to be called up go fight in his war against the Ukraine ... 

Russian Protestors Meet Usual Brutality

... the protests were met with the usual dictatorship brutality, which we see in all authoritarian states similar to Russia.

Fair Swap?

In the USA and the leftie woke press (like the BBC), the release of the previously largely unknown black lesbian basketball player Brittney Griner, in a prisoner swap, has been greeted as almost like the release of Nelson Mandela .....

Griner For Bout - A Fair Swap?

..... with almost minute by the minute reports of her progress westward.

Nationalism Distorts Facts

When nationalism is the primary political ethos of a government, there is always a problem with the truth ....

Indian Nationalism Morphed Into Hindu Nationalism

.... after all, what your essentially promoting is the idea that the country (especially under your leadership), is better than any other country.

Taxes - The Seeds Of Revolution

When Charles the first of England, couldn't get the English Parliament to give him more money, via more taxes, to fund a foreign war .....

Regime Changes After Taxes Can Be Violent

 

..... he dissolved it after a one day. He then ruled without it for 11 years.

Mobsters And Madmen

 Sadly, these days there are many countries where law and order is weak .....

Isolating Oneself Can Lead To Madness

.... and where the Mob, and Narco's are able to act with near virtual impunity.

Camel Lot

Camels have always struck me as stroppy beasts ....

Bolshie Camel Looking Down Its Nose ....

... It may be the bottom lip stuck out, or the protruding teeth that makes me think that.

Seven Stans - Cockpit Of Terrorism

And now the world prepares to go to hell in a set of basket cases ...... as the largely failed US led NATO mission leaves Afghanistan at the end of the year, the Jihadist forces are already setting up bases inside Afghanistan in order to attack one or all of the seven 'stans'. Afghanistan, Krgyzstan, Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Most of them are weak, economically poor, and already embroiled at a high level in the corruption brought about by the drug monies flowing out of Afghanistan.

There is no avoiding the fact that the US never really understood the region, and far from leaving it a better place, has by its mighty presence, largely destabilised the whole socio economic arena of the region to such an extent, that its possible that as well as Afghanistan; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan could also become destabilised over the coming decade, with at least two of these becoming Jihadist / Taliban strongholds.

The Seven 'Stans' The New Cockpit Of Terrorism?

The most vulnerable countries are Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which share over 1,200 miles (1,900km) of borders with northern Afghanistan .... with Tajikistan in particular already propped up by 6,000 Russian troops. In the Badakhshan province on Afghanistan's north-west border, up to 500 Taliban militants have already ousted the Afghan forces from several districts in the province, and are now trying to take control of Iskashim, a key district and town, that also lies along the Afghan border. It is only separated from Tajikistan by the narrow Panj river which freezes over in winter, making forays into Tajikistan much easier.

So far from eradicating the problems of a terrorist state in Afghanistan, the West has merely spread the troubles over a wider area, and like the cork on a Djinn bottle, it can no longer be put back after being pulled. The fact that the 'stans' cannot agree on a common plan to protect their region after 2014 just makes the likelihood of a failure by one or more of them all the more likely ... a domino effect if you will, only this time its not the Communists, but an infinitely more frightening enemy.

Cold War Thinking

Its one of the more perplexing questions of the current strife in Syria that Russia continues to back the Assad regime against all comers .... there is no oil (and in any case Russia is a net exporter), and its not a rich country so why the reluctance to contemplate regime change? On the face of it, their siding with the regime is only likely to lead to the next regime (if anti Assad), rejecting them completely, and thus defeat any objectives that Russia has in the area.

A couple of reasons why the support, have been defence contracts of over $1bn, and continued access to the port of Tartus (a medium size deep water Mediterranean port that can't berth an aircraft carrier) .... but neither reasons hold water. The contracts would have to be honoured by any regime, and in fact if the regime is radical and Islamist then they will want the Russian weapons even more as insurance against Israel and to stop American influence over their foreign policies.

The Port Of Tartus In Syria - Worth Supporting Pres. Assad for?

No, the answer lies in the old cold war ... Russia's current leadership is all rooted in the Soviet era (Putin was a KGB operative), and this whole policy, which is obviously going to backfire as it stands, is based upon the old Soviet idea of stopping the west having influence and denying them another port .... as I have pointed out, there current policy may actually lead to the next regime rejecting them as allies, so it makes no sense to pursue this policy except as an example of old 'Cold War' thinking.

Meet The New Boss, Same As The Old Boss

In the way that these things happen, there were two stories from Russia that caught my eye in the last few days.

 

Medvedev–Putin Tandemocracy

 

The first was that the Russians will hold Parliamentary elections on Sunday the 4th December, and there are allegations and fears that this will be the least 'free and fair' election since the fall of communism appeared to usher in 'democracy' in 1991 ... Vladimir Putin is leader of the ruling United Russia, but the incumbent President is Dmitry Medvedev (also from that party).

 

Nobel Prize, Ignoble Politics

China's behaviour over the award of the Noble Peace prize to Liu Xiaobo one of their own citizens, but one who is in prison for protesting for human rights, has been nothing less than shameful

..... but the behaviour of some of their 'friends' around the world has been equally disgraceful.

 

"Honey Traps" And Other Cold War Strategies

A British MP has had his Russian 'Parliamentary Aide', Katia Zatuliveter, age 25, arrested over claims she is a Russian spy.

Katia Zatuliveter

Of course he says she isn't a spy, but as the KGB (FSB, or whatever they call themselves these days), have used Russian ingenue's, to beguile older western males into loosening their tongues (if nothing else), over sensitive information for decades, so its rather odd that she should gravitate towards an old minor leftie MP just 'for love', and for no other reason.

Cuba Reforms - First Open Criticism For 50 Yrs

The Cuba reforms are proceeding at a glacial pace, but even so there have been the first rumblings of criticism, with Cardinal Jaime Ortega, the head of the Catholic Church in Cuba saying it is in one of its worst crises in recent times, and that people are openly criticising the socialist system.

Personally if I was Cuba's rulers, I would think that economic reforms should predate any 'political' ones, or else risk a 'Russian' reform i.e. problems of corruption and oligarchs arising before any benefits hit the people.

In other words do a China and get working on introducing a private economy, with some adjustments to ensure countryside not left behind, and to ensure poverty gap doesn't get too big.

It's all very well for the US congress to make an issue of political reforms in Cuba before they will lift the sanctions but do they really want several million Cubans sailing to the US because the economy has collapsed in Cuba?

I doubt whether Pres. Obama could survive the backlash from a 'boat people' invasion ..... so let Cuba manage the change, accept that the political changes will come somewhat later than the economic ones (Cuba isn't China. It can't isolate the communist party from the influence of its neighbours,especially the US with its Cuban diaspora), and play the long game.

Russia and Islam

Russia's dealings with the Muslim world have often been schizophrenic, on one hand assisting the Nuclear ambitions of Iran, while on the other conducting internal wars with those of this faith within their borders. The killing of twenty people by a bomb, placed at a police station in Russia's southern republic of Ingushetia, illustrates that Russia, has as much to fear by stoking up the fundamentalist flames, as the West.

Russia is playing a risky game with the West and the Muslims, especially as they have a Muslim population of between 10-15% of their total, concentrated on their borders of the Muslim world.

It maybe that the Russians will shortly have to make a decision on whether they want to remain a European country, with the aim of achieving a true democracy, or if it intends to revisit the dark past of its history and act only to support attacks on the democratic world.

Laying the seeds, for the next European war.

There is speculation that for political reasons the US and EU are going to allow the Serbian province of Kosovo to declare independence ...

 

Kosovo Flag

 

..... simply because in the last fifty years it has developed a Muslim majority.