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Sunday, 4 May 2008

Computers for Cuba

As the changes of style since the retirement of Castro takes place, and Cubans are rushing to join the 'consumer' culture as fast as poverty (average earnings are only US $20 pm) allows them, it begs the question "will they be happier?"

Capitalism Makes You Sing And Dance For Your Supper .....
Capitalism Makes You Sing And
Dance For Your Supper .....

I ask because when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, many East Europeans and East Germans, thought that wealth would pour through like a veritable Cornucopia, only to find that Capitalism was a harsh mistress (even in the 'welfare state' form that was in vogue in West Europe). 
 
It wasn't long before many East German residents started remembering wistfully the simple pleasures of the old DDR, which fed them, gave 100 per cent employment and had largely eradicated crime (in the western sense). Even if there was little by way of consumer goods, they had a very high intellectual culture, un-deadened by endless soap opera TV.

Now the old East German areas of Germany are abandoned by the young, who still seek jobs in the western areas (or Berlin), and are now the happy hunting grounds for Neo-Nazi gangs, and comprise a lot of run down welfare housing. Re-Development has been slow and patchy, and it may be another 30 yrs before the last traces of the division of Germany are eradicated.

If this is what happened in East Germany, which was the most advanced of the communist regimes (Russians thought it was paradise!), and who had billions of dollars pumped in by the West German government, then what chance the others?

For Poland, the Czechs, Slovaks etc the path was slower, but again the EU helped and some were able to bypass the post heavy industry era that plagued the old East Germany or Slovak states, and move into high skilled light industry and I.T. e.g. The Czech republic which caught up inside a decade. Others such as the Poles exported their highly intelligent youth into the UK to help develop their country, but all have large pockets of old style 'communist' poverty that may take decades to remove.

The Cubans though, are poor (although reasonably educated), but have no 'sugar daddy' such as West Germany or the EU to help them. For all its other virtues, US capital is not altruistic, and the exile Cubans are the old 'landowners' who expect to reclaim 'their property and lands' as soon as the communists 'fall'. There will be a heavy price demanded for any US or ex-pat Cuban help.

The biggest shock to the East Germans was that they had nothing that the West wanted, their goods (which were the best in the East), were shoddy, old fashioned and expensive to make. They had been led to believe that they had a comparable lifestyle to "Westerners" and despite the evidence of TV every night (they all got West German TV) they still believed this to be true.

With unification, entire industrial sectors in the old East German collapsed overnight. I suspect that the Cubans (who also get US TV), also still believe that their industries would survive capitalism, despite all the evidence that their goods and services would collapse overnight, when they tried to compete with western goods and services.

I am therefore not convinced that the Cubans face the 'happy consumer future', that some what luckily has fallen to the East Europeans, and in fact, I fear Cuba being very much exploited as a cheap educated labour pool for US companies, with the worst of the South American 'sweat shops' creeping in, when the current Cuban regime collapses.

I may be proved wrong, but I suspect that "Computers for Cuba" may just fuel false expectations in the Cubans about what capitalism brings, in particular the idea that 'the house, the car, and the bling' just fall off trees in a capitalist state, without any additional work and at no social price.

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