Translate

Friday, 29 June 2012

Cold War Thinking

Its one of the more perplexing questions of the current strife in Syria that Russia continues to back the Assad regime against all comers .... there is no oil (and in any case Russia is a net exporter), and its not a rich country so why the reluctance to contemplate regime change? On the face of it, their siding with the regime is only likely to lead to the next regime (if anti Assad), rejecting them completely, and thus defeat any objectives that Russia has in the area.

A couple of reasons why the support, have been defence contracts of over $1bn, and continued access to the port of Tartus (a medium size deep water Mediterranean port that can't berth an aircraft carrier) .... but neither reasons hold water. The contracts would have to be honoured by any regime, and in fact if the regime is radical and Islamist then they will want the Russian weapons even more as insurance against Israel and to stop American influence over their foreign policies.

The Port Of Tartus In Syria - Worth Supporting Pres. Assad for?

No, the answer lies in the old cold war ... Russia's current leadership is all rooted in the Soviet era (Putin was a KGB operative), and this whole policy, which is obviously going to backfire as it stands, is based upon the old Soviet idea of stopping the west having influence and denying them another port .... as I have pointed out, there current policy may actually lead to the next regime rejecting them as allies, so it makes no sense to pursue this policy except as an example of old 'Cold War' thinking.

No comments:

Post a Comment

All comments are welcomed, or even just thanks if you enjoyed the post. But please make any comment relevant to the post it appears under. Off topic comments will be blocked or removed.

Moderation is on for older posts to stop spamming and comments that are off topic or inappropriate from being posted .... comments are reviewed within 48 hours. I don't block normal comments that are on topic and not inappropriate. Vexatious comments that may cause upset to other commentators, or that are attempting to espouse a particular wider political view, are reviewed before acceptance. But a certain amount of debate around a post topic is accepted, as long as it remains generally on topic and is not an attempt to become sounding board for some other cause.

Final decision on all comments is held by the blog author and is final.

Comments are always monitored for bad or abusive language, and or illegal statements i.e. overtly racist or sexist content. Spam is not tolerated and is removed.

Commentaires ne sont surveillés que pour le mauvais ou abusif langue ou déclarations illégales ie contenu ouvertement raciste ou sexiste. Spam ne est pas toléré et est éliminé.

Followers

Blog Archive

Its a Pucking World

Its a Pucking World
Dreamberry Wine Cover

About Me

My photo
A middle aged orange male ... So 'un' PC it's not true....