Innocents Abroad

President Trump appointed two real estate developers, Steve Witkoff and Presidential Advisor Jared Kushner to handle Middle East negotiating .....

Innocents Abroad -  Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner

...... firstly between Hamas and Isreal in Gaza, and then to negotiate with Iran.

These two men have no real political experience or background, other than that given to them by Trump e.g having handled his inaugural reception etc. Consequently they have had their pants pulled down their asses right royally, rog***d at every negotiating round. 

In Gaza, the so called Peace plan never got past stage 1 ... Hamas effectively control what's left of Gaza after the Israeli army seized half of it, they have not disarmed, and they play fast and loose with the terms by offering to dismantle their political control (but not their military control) .... Isreal on the other hand continues to bomb parts of Gaza due to 'military threats' because Hamas are still armed ... so absolutely no peace deal, and in fact a bloody mess .... but my how Hamas must wish they had never attacked Isreal on the day of infamy.

Meanwhile, the dynamic duo moved on to Iran. Here, despite god knows how many claims of 'Victory' by their lord and master, they set to work to try and extricate him from the infernal mess he had landed himself in. They came up with the loosely worded Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) ... in which once again they were thoroughly out witted by the Iranians.

The two key points were (a) the disposal of all enriched uranium over 5%, with IAEA inspectors to ensure compliance (the reason the US and Isreal ostensibly started attacking Iran), and no nuclear weapons development or purchase, and (b) the return to free passage through the Straits of Hormuz (closure of which was an unexpected consequence to the US government, although it was obvious to everyone else).

Well, once again, despite the US's military dominance, the witless wonders negotiated a bad deal. On point (a) ...  A 60-day window was established for negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including the Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirming that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons  and to not process highly enriched uranium, under IAEA supervision of compliance ..... but 'negotiations' can take decades, and so are not, total bans while negotiations are underway. The 60 day window is, of course, no such thing and is extendable with mutual consent.

On point (b) .... Iran agreed to facilitate the safe passage of commercial vessels toll-free with
the traffic of vessels to be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran for an initial 60-day period. During this time, discussions are mandated between Iran, Oman, and regional states to define the future administration and maritime services of the strait.

To the Iranians, that wording ceded all control of the traffic in the Straits (including the Omani half to their ultimate authority) ... they are now enforcing that by attacking tankers that don't use their side of the Straits (and allegedly eliciting 'transit fees'). These Iranian tolls being supposedly imposed at the start of the conflict (in contrast to Trumps proposed 20% US fee), were reportedly around $2 million, or about 1.2% of the value of the oil on board of a very large crude oil carrier, and unofficially some payments being made secretly between governments were as low as $120,000, according to Lloyd's of London.

When negotiating political deals, words are everything and ambiguity is to be avoided. For reasons that make no sense Trump's negotiators left loop holes that Iran not only could fully exploit, but made them look like the ultimate victors. Why the Americans simply didn't insist from the start that the MOU included the following provisions: 

1. No nuclear material could be enriched over 5%.
2. IAEA supervision to start immediately to ensure compliance. 
3. All previously enriched Uranium over 5% to be handed over to US control.
4. The Iranians can control only their internationally agreed territories and territorial waters, and must respect international treaties concerning free passage through the Straits of Hormuz and others territorial waters.

... is beyond me. The sticks above could have been sweetened by the carrot of negotiations to end all economic sanctions on an agreed schedule, alongside unlocking frozen Iranian assets as Iranians complied with 1 to 4 above.

Moral of this: I guess using your beer buddies and relatives to run complex political and military negotiations when they have no skill or experience in either, is pretty dumb when your the President of the US ... the USA and the world are going to pay a heavy price for this amateur led negotiation.

What Trump and his team just don't get is that Iran has a different mindset than the rest of the world.  Martyrdom and sacrifice to Allah is the raison d'etre for the regime .... they don't care about death or anything except regime survival. You can't trust them to follow logic or the rules as we see it and sending two inexperienced real estate developers to deal with them was madness.

The whole negotiations have now apparently collapsed with Trump calling the Iranians "Scum," and its hard to see where this will go next except more fighting and a very poor final peace.

Note: For reasons of brevity I've somewhat paraphrased the MOU ... for the full agreement and text, see here.