Oh No, More Predictions

As we approach the end of the year, we may well be reflecting on the past year and also thinking about the year to come ... possibly with a view to predictions!!

Our Predictions Rival ~ Paul The Octopus

 
Now, as we at PC towers have a proven record of predictive failure which would do Nostradamus proud (unless you happen to believe that he was any better than, Old Mother Shipton and other seers .... i.e. rubbish), then we won't be giving the world another cheap laugh by predicting things to come.

 

Apart from anything else, we could easily do the quick ones and say that:

• Libya could well fail completely (if it hasn't already) ~ the high hopes of their revolution smashed on the same anvil of Islamic fundamentalism that wrecked the originally secular 'democracy' movements in other Arab countries.
• Syria will continue its 'civil war' for another year, with the only two credible fighting forces being the repugnant IS, and the almost as nasty state forces of the Assad regime .... this may run for another decade as a proxy fight, with some of the gulf sates, and other unofficial 'Saudi' sponsors backing IS, and Iran backing the official regime.
• The Afghans will prove incapable of a staving off the Taliban without occasional western military support, but will be equally unable to gain any of the countryside back either. In fact the stalemate will be exactly as it was when the Soviets propped up its 'communist regime' against the Mujahideen two decades ago.
• Iraq will remain another battleground, with a weak regime unable to face IS, but IS being held back from winning by the air attacks from Iran, Iraq and the Western forces in the region.
• The Ukraine will also fizzle on as a low level proxy war, with the eventual 'compromise' solution having to be created by more bloodshed. Anyone looking from the outside can see that the Crimea is not going to ever be 'Ukrainian' again, and that probably the most eastern of the disputed regions will probably also stay in Russian hands ... but until the locals see this, the fighting carries on.
• The world economy will teeter on the edge of another recession, because the euro zone countries and increasingly those in South America are not growing. Argentina and Venezuela will slip into recessions.
• There is to be the first fixed term general election in UK history, with the results very much up in the air ... even Nostradamus, or the modern equivalent MORI, are going to be unable to call it. Probably the only aspect that we can say with a certainty is that the chances of an absolute majority for any one party is smaller than might have been thought a couple of years ago: UKIP will win more seats from the Tories than from Labour, but Labour will lose a lot of Scottish Westminster seats to the SNP ... and this will leave the balance of power in Westminster in doubt. The Liberals will likely suffer badly at the polls (although who knows, their core 'party of protest' vote may stay firm ~ once a liberal always a liberal!).
• China will be ever more aggressive in foreign policy, trying to enforce its claims to an entire sea as its territory .... its attack dog North Korea, will continue to bluster, threaten and verbally attack anyone who threatens the regime and may start to look internally unstable if there are food shortages. Third generation absolute leaders often prove to be mad ~ e.g. Rome : Augustus (sane), Tiberius (despotic) ~ Caligula (mad as a hatter), and are usually killed by those who fear death at their hands.The latest 'Kim il' has killed family members already.
• The USA will have a strange year as its economy improves (probably as long as there is no world recession), under a last term President. Technically he has nearly 2 years until Tuesday, November 8, 2016, but strangely the US system leaves it with a dead duck President for the final 2 years of any second term, unless a President also holds both the Senate and Congress (which is not the case for Pres.Obama). Traditionally the President in these scenarios look to a foreign policy success (Nixon in China for example), but Obama may not have this outlet as he has soured relations with Israel, and only has the other messes in the Middle East to look at. All extremely infertile ground for any sort of success, particularly as much of it is as a direct result of earlier US interference in the same countries. All roads led to Damascus so to speak  ...... Afghanistan led to Iraq, which led to Libya, which led to Syria.

..... Damn, wait a minute that's a bunch of predictions after all .... oh well, here's one prediction that will be true, and that is that this is another years worth of predictions that will fall to the ground within months, or even weeks, as Macmillan's 'events dear boy, events' overtake them one by one.

Happy New Year to all our readers ............