I have always harboured thoughts that the Communist Chinese system of one party capitalism would prove far harder to eradicate ....
..... than the state run nationalised economy communism of the old USSR (and indeed Mao's China).
The optimists in the West (especially the US), who thought that the communist style of rule was dead, defeated by the failure of the state run type of economy to adapt, when run against the 'free market' style western economies, have been proved wrong.
They were wrong because they forgot two of the important features of the collapse of the USSR:
The USSR had in effect been punching far above their weight on the world stage for decades, by stealing from the future social and political development of their citizens since the late 1970's.
Compare and contrast with China in the 1970's. When US President Nixon visited China in 1972 the visit unleashed events, that led to China starting to trade with various countries and eventually joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 (and becoming the worlds second biggest economy by 2019). But back in the late 1970's the Chinese economy was far below that of the US, or even the USSR, and therefore it was not trying to compete militarily with either (although it had nuclear weapons - a bit like North Korea if you want a current comparison), except in their own locality e.g. Korea and Vietnam..
When the Soviet Communist Party lost power in 1991, the Chinese had only achieved a moderate economic growth, but there had been no glasnost in China, and they were not trying to directly compete with the US, so they had all their economic resources invested in growing their own economy, and largely employed soft political power abroad via credit loans to third world countries. So the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hadn't run out of money, and the general population were experiencing a modest, but steady improvement in wealth and lifestyles. This meant there was no social disaffection or disappointment for the party to contend with.
The Chinese people who were seeing this sustained standard of living rise since the early 1920's were content so no one wanted to rock the boat. The communist party continued to retain all political power, especially after a ruthless crackdown following the 1989 students uprising in Tienanmen Square (another lesson learnt after collapse of the Soviet Union, where the regime had collapsed when faced with protests, and hadn't suppressed dissent).
Now, 30 years later (yes it really is 30 years later!!), it seems impossible to image the Chinese communist party losing any power, especially as they have elected a lifelong 'great' leader' in President Xi, who has unlimited power (along the lines of Chairman Mao, or any Emperor of the past). In fact only the most catastrophic collapse in the economy would pose a threat .... the Chinese rulers of any era always face the double threat of either famine or mass unemployment, both of which seem unlikely today.
However, these two threats are why the Chinese have to do the dance with US President Donald Trump. Economic or armed conflict with the US would raise the spectre of either or both of those evil twins re-emerging in China, and thus pose the only short term risk to the communist parties rule. But long term, say 50 years from now, the CCP will find that their economy can't compete on the cheap production front, as local rivals such as maybe Vietnam, Cambodia, or Burma will offer lower labour and production costs, and advanced automation means that the now mature Chinese economy, can't necessarily offer full employment to the population.
How they handle this potential situation is the key to the continuing control of the CCP. But in the meantime, really Big Brother remains very firmly in power and control
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| Chinese Communist Parties Heavenly Rule - Intended To Be As Eternal As Any Emperors. |
..... than the state run nationalised economy communism of the old USSR (and indeed Mao's China).
The optimists in the West (especially the US), who thought that the communist style of rule was dead, defeated by the failure of the state run type of economy to adapt, when run against the 'free market' style western economies, have been proved wrong.
 |
| Collapse Of USSR Reported In West .... China Warning |
They were wrong because they forgot two of the important features of the collapse of the USSR:
- Firstly; Chairman Gorbachov introduced a measure of political 'openness' known as Glastnost into the Soviet Union - this had the effect of fatally weakening the authority of the communist party as the only political organ in the USSR.
- Secondly; The USSR ran out of money. Its centrally commanded economic system simply couldn't find the resources (Perestroika had failed to do anything but hasten the decline), to match the military spending of the US under President Reagan, and its population were increasingly aware that their standard of living had not improved in decades, especially compared to Western Europe, as well as the US.
The USSR had in effect been punching far above their weight on the world stage for decades, by stealing from the future social and political development of their citizens since the late 1970's.
Compare and contrast with China in the 1970's. When US President Nixon visited China in 1972 the visit unleashed events, that led to China starting to trade with various countries and eventually joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 (and becoming the worlds second biggest economy by 2019). But back in the late 1970's the Chinese economy was far below that of the US, or even the USSR, and therefore it was not trying to compete militarily with either (although it had nuclear weapons - a bit like North Korea if you want a current comparison), except in their own locality e.g. Korea and Vietnam..
When the Soviet Communist Party lost power in 1991, the Chinese had only achieved a moderate economic growth, but there had been no glasnost in China, and they were not trying to directly compete with the US, so they had all their economic resources invested in growing their own economy, and largely employed soft political power abroad via credit loans to third world countries. So the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hadn't run out of money, and the general population were experiencing a modest, but steady improvement in wealth and lifestyles. This meant there was no social disaffection or disappointment for the party to contend with.
 |
| The Tiananmen Square Suppression Was A Defining Moment In Chinese History. |
The Chinese people who were seeing this sustained standard of living rise since the early 1920's were content so no one wanted to rock the boat. The communist party continued to retain all political power, especially after a ruthless crackdown following the 1989 students uprising in Tienanmen Square (another lesson learnt after collapse of the Soviet Union, where the regime had collapsed when faced with protests, and hadn't suppressed dissent).
Now, 30 years later (yes it really is 30 years later!!), it seems impossible to image the Chinese communist party losing any power, especially as they have elected a lifelong 'great' leader' in President Xi, who has unlimited power (along the lines of Chairman Mao, or any Emperor of the past). In fact only the most catastrophic collapse in the economy would pose a threat .... the Chinese rulers of any era always face the double threat of either famine or mass unemployment, both of which seem unlikely today.
However, these two threats are why the Chinese have to do the dance with US President Donald Trump. Economic or armed conflict with the US would raise the spectre of either or both of those evil twins re-emerging in China, and thus pose the only short term risk to the communist parties rule. But long term, say 50 years from now, the CCP will find that their economy can't compete on the cheap production front, as local rivals such as maybe Vietnam, Cambodia, or Burma will offer lower labour and production costs, and advanced automation means that the now mature Chinese economy, can't necessarily offer full employment to the population.
How they handle this potential situation is the key to the continuing control of the CCP. But in the meantime, really Big Brother remains very firmly in power and control
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