All the signs are that we are heading to a depressing future.
.... the signs of this are all around us. Overpopulation, Pandemics, Freak Weather and War.
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| Visions Of Disaster - With the Four Horsemen Riding Forth |
.... the signs of this are all around us. Overpopulation, Pandemics, Freak Weather and War.
The latest spate of predictions shows that by 2050 we could be facing:
Never mind “Global Warming”, many of these pressures will come to a head well before the impact of global warming has really taken affect. The world is likely to face at least one “nuclear” war either prompted by resource issues, or the other major political factor, radical Islam. Iran’s complete disregard towards any world norms, (well non Muslim norms) on territorial issues such as the existence of Israel, and its treatment of prisoners, does not augur well in this regard should they obtain a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile North Korea has regular famines, but still develops and tests nuclear weapons, and destabilises the region.
I believe that the driver for nearly all these issues is Population Growth in the third world, and until this is tackled all the other problems will just grow. The pressure on water and arable land, come from the tremendous population growth in the last 50 yrs.
When in 1798, Malthus presented his theory, that all human production whether agrarian, economic or social, would eventually be outstripped by the inexorable growth in the human population. It appeared to be a truth that could not be denied. The only limitation on human population growth appeared to be catastrophe i.e. Plague or Famine, and even then there were signs that plague (in whatever form) could be conquered.
In the intervening centuries the human race has learnt to overcome illness and famine, so that by the 1970’s the predictions of Malthus appeared to be invalidated. The human race appeared to have no limits on its size, with talk of Mega cities (ala Judge Dredd) just on the horizon, and most societies had populations at or beyond their agricultural limits. This was permissible because the “Green Revolution” had allowed greater food production per acre than at any time in history.
Now however we appear to have reached the end of the line on that road, and there are signs that population pressure is about to become the real world issue, whether the politicians want it or not. The world is likely to run out of Water (Egypt has threatened Ethiopia over plans to dam the upper Nile), Oil (may be extended by new methods of extraction), and Food (Arable land areas in some countries have already fallen by between 25 - 30%) in some regions by 2050. It’s easy to find the figures, many of which have been produced by UN bodies.
There have been some efforts to discuss over population as the root cause of all humanities problems e.g. Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie by Albert Bartlett, but oddly the politicians of the world have remained almost stonily silent. They will take up the banner of Global Warming but not the root cause “Over Population” …. Why?
Well it’s our old friend “Political Correctness” again. The problem with this discussion is that, the Western world (Inc Japan, Taiwan etc) is largely showing either stable or falling populations, China’s population is largely stable after 30 years of the one child policy, but the African, Hispanic, Muslim and Asian regions are showing undiminished growth. India will overtake the population of China by 2030 - currently China's population is expected to be around 1.415 billion by 2018 and India's around 1.354 billion.
Sub Saharan African populations in some areas have actually fallen since the 1960’s due to war, famine, HIV and poor health care. E.g. the average life expectancy in Zimbabwe is now 35 yrs, but was 60 yrs+ in 1970. Nevertheless Sub Saharan Africa has shown tremendous growth e.g. Nigeria, which per capita is one of Africa’s poorer countries, has gone from 32.8 million in 1950 to 83.6 million in 2005.
Raising this matter causes the “Racist” card to be raised by the countries that could most benefit from addressing the issue.…. so it’s not raised, and we go off on a tangent trying to fix the symptoms of over population: Environmental damage, water shortages, and food shortages. To be fair some countries (aside from China), did try and address this issue, Mrs Ghandi in India did try some schemes, but religious militants caused it to collapse, and no one in India has tried it since.
Just to illustrate my theme consider the following facts:
This scenario is only one of several around the world, including India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and a myriad others where water shortages exist already.
A Lecture by Adel Darwish – “Geneva conference on Environment and Quality of Life June 1994”.
"Oil has always been thought of as the traditional cause of conflict in the Middle East past and present. Since the first Gulf oil well gushed in Bahrain in 1932, countries have squabbled over borders in the hope that ownership of a patch of desert or a sand bank might give them access to new riches. No longer. Now, most borders have been set, oil fields mapped and reserves accurately estimated - unlike the water resources, which are still often unknown. WATER is taking over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict in the Middle East.
When President Anwar Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, he said Egypt will never go to war again, except to protect its water resources. King Hussein of Jordan has said he will never go to war with Israel again except over water, and the Untied Nation Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has warned bluntly that the next war in the area will be over water.
From Turkey, the southern bastion of NATO, down to Oman looking out over the Indian Ocean, the countries of the Middle East are worrying today about how they will satisfy the needs of their burgeoning industries, or find drinking water for the extra millions born each year, not to mention agriculture, who are the main cause of depleting water resources in the region.
All these nations depend on three great river systems, or vast underground aquifers, some of which are of `fossil water' that cannot be renewed.
Take the greatest source of water in the region, the Nile. Its basin nations have one of the highest rates of population growth, and which are likely to double in less than thirty years, yet the amount of water the Nile brings is no more than it was when Moses was found in the bulrushes”.
The other points raised, Land and Food are self evident, and will simply depend on the willingness of one country to defend its borders against mass migration from another.
We in the West have stopped the wars that kill large populations, cured the diseases that took millions, and offer aid to prevent famines taking millions, but not cut birth rates in the developing world.
We are now looking at the result of this: Population grwoths are stressing the resources available in traditionally large population areas, and these systems are collapsing. We may have to look at the world in an entirely new way in the future, and allow the Four Horsemen to ride again in order to curb the population growth that is strangling the world, and giving rise to the pressures on environment, food, water and resources.
In fact we in the West may not be in a position to stop it, because we will not be immune from the affects ourselves, as is witnessed by the millions of migrants clamouring to get to Europe and the USA. A depressing thought, but let us face some facts, the higher survival rates of populations around the world, has not been matched by the expected falling birth rates that the altruistic thought would occur, and that, accompanied by the introduction of medicine, clean water etc from the West, is only exacerbating these trends.
The world’s future doesn’t look a rosy thing when viewed through my glasses, but at least they are not rose tinted.
Update:
As of 2018 the populations are:
Jordan - 9,903,802 million
Israel - 8,452,841 million
Egypt - 99,375,741 million
State of Palestine - 5,052,776 million
Links:
China loses 10% of arable land
War looms over Nile Dam - Ethiopia and the Southern Sudan argue with Sudan and Egypt february 2018 - UN predicts water shortages in Egypt by 2025.
- Populations reaching at least 9.5 Billion by 2050.
- By that same date, there are likely to be serious food shortages in many areas, with soil degradation on massive scales (China has lost 25% of arable land in the last 50 years in some areas).
- Potable water shortages in large areas, often those where soil degradation is occurring.
- Massive immigration pressures as those countries that have not curbed their population growths try to acquire land from weaker or less populated areas. E.g. Australia, US, Canada, New Zealand, Siberian Russia are all under populated and have neighbours who are massively over populated even now i.e. Mexico, and Asia.
- At least seven new Nuclear weapons powers – Turkey, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Brazil, Argentina and possibly more joining the existing “club”.
Never mind “Global Warming”, many of these pressures will come to a head well before the impact of global warming has really taken affect. The world is likely to face at least one “nuclear” war either prompted by resource issues, or the other major political factor, radical Islam. Iran’s complete disregard towards any world norms, (well non Muslim norms) on territorial issues such as the existence of Israel, and its treatment of prisoners, does not augur well in this regard should they obtain a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile North Korea has regular famines, but still develops and tests nuclear weapons, and destabilises the region.
I believe that the driver for nearly all these issues is Population Growth in the third world, and until this is tackled all the other problems will just grow. The pressure on water and arable land, come from the tremendous population growth in the last 50 yrs.
When in 1798, Malthus presented his theory, that all human production whether agrarian, economic or social, would eventually be outstripped by the inexorable growth in the human population. It appeared to be a truth that could not be denied. The only limitation on human population growth appeared to be catastrophe i.e. Plague or Famine, and even then there were signs that plague (in whatever form) could be conquered.
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| The Four Horsemen Will Be Riding Forth |
In the intervening centuries the human race has learnt to overcome illness and famine, so that by the 1970’s the predictions of Malthus appeared to be invalidated. The human race appeared to have no limits on its size, with talk of Mega cities (ala Judge Dredd) just on the horizon, and most societies had populations at or beyond their agricultural limits. This was permissible because the “Green Revolution” had allowed greater food production per acre than at any time in history.
Now however we appear to have reached the end of the line on that road, and there are signs that population pressure is about to become the real world issue, whether the politicians want it or not. The world is likely to run out of Water (Egypt has threatened Ethiopia over plans to dam the upper Nile), Oil (may be extended by new methods of extraction), and Food (Arable land areas in some countries have already fallen by between 25 - 30%) in some regions by 2050. It’s easy to find the figures, many of which have been produced by UN bodies.
There have been some efforts to discuss over population as the root cause of all humanities problems e.g. Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie by Albert Bartlett, but oddly the politicians of the world have remained almost stonily silent. They will take up the banner of Global Warming but not the root cause “Over Population” …. Why?
Well it’s our old friend “Political Correctness” again. The problem with this discussion is that, the Western world (Inc Japan, Taiwan etc) is largely showing either stable or falling populations, China’s population is largely stable after 30 years of the one child policy, but the African, Hispanic, Muslim and Asian regions are showing undiminished growth. India will overtake the population of China by 2030 - currently China's population is expected to be around 1.415 billion by 2018 and India's around 1.354 billion.
Sub Saharan African populations in some areas have actually fallen since the 1960’s due to war, famine, HIV and poor health care. E.g. the average life expectancy in Zimbabwe is now 35 yrs, but was 60 yrs+ in 1970. Nevertheless Sub Saharan Africa has shown tremendous growth e.g. Nigeria, which per capita is one of Africa’s poorer countries, has gone from 32.8 million in 1950 to 83.6 million in 2005.
Raising this matter causes the “Racist” card to be raised by the countries that could most benefit from addressing the issue.…. so it’s not raised, and we go off on a tangent trying to fix the symptoms of over population: Environmental damage, water shortages, and food shortages. To be fair some countries (aside from China), did try and address this issue, Mrs Ghandi in India did try some schemes, but religious militants caused it to collapse, and no one in India has tried it since.
Just to illustrate my theme consider the following facts:
- Israel's population is projected to grow from 4.7 millions in 1990 to about 8 million in 2025. By that time Palestinians in the West bank - because of their even higher birth rate, are likely to reach just under seven millions- the two peoples are to share the same water resources which they both now say are not enough.
- Jordan's population more than doubled from 1.5 millions in 1955 to 4 millions in 1990 and is projected to double again before 2010. Their annual per capita water availability in 1990 was 327 cubic meters some 673 below the bottom line of crisis.
- They all share the same diminishing water supplies, in particular the river Jordan.
- Turkey has considered damming the upper Jordan … all the countries above are angry.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/755497.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2820831.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/614235.stm - Turkey is also constantly threatening to dam the upper Tigris, and this has caused Syria, Iraq and Iran to issue veiled threats.
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| UN World Water Assessment Showing Both Physical And Economic Water Scarcity Worldwide. |
This scenario is only one of several around the world, including India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and a myriad others where water shortages exist already.
A Lecture by Adel Darwish – “Geneva conference on Environment and Quality of Life June 1994”.
"Oil has always been thought of as the traditional cause of conflict in the Middle East past and present. Since the first Gulf oil well gushed in Bahrain in 1932, countries have squabbled over borders in the hope that ownership of a patch of desert or a sand bank might give them access to new riches. No longer. Now, most borders have been set, oil fields mapped and reserves accurately estimated - unlike the water resources, which are still often unknown. WATER is taking over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict in the Middle East.
When President Anwar Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, he said Egypt will never go to war again, except to protect its water resources. King Hussein of Jordan has said he will never go to war with Israel again except over water, and the Untied Nation Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has warned bluntly that the next war in the area will be over water.
From Turkey, the southern bastion of NATO, down to Oman looking out over the Indian Ocean, the countries of the Middle East are worrying today about how they will satisfy the needs of their burgeoning industries, or find drinking water for the extra millions born each year, not to mention agriculture, who are the main cause of depleting water resources in the region.
All these nations depend on three great river systems, or vast underground aquifers, some of which are of `fossil water' that cannot be renewed.
Take the greatest source of water in the region, the Nile. Its basin nations have one of the highest rates of population growth, and which are likely to double in less than thirty years, yet the amount of water the Nile brings is no more than it was when Moses was found in the bulrushes”.
The other points raised, Land and Food are self evident, and will simply depend on the willingness of one country to defend its borders against mass migration from another.
- Would for example the US shoot hundreds of thousands of Hispanics crossing the border to get to a richer land? If not, then the thousands may become millions in 35 years time.
- Could Russia prevent Siberia being colonised by millions of hungry North Koreans?
We in the West have stopped the wars that kill large populations, cured the diseases that took millions, and offer aid to prevent famines taking millions, but not cut birth rates in the developing world.
We are now looking at the result of this: Population grwoths are stressing the resources available in traditionally large population areas, and these systems are collapsing. We may have to look at the world in an entirely new way in the future, and allow the Four Horsemen to ride again in order to curb the population growth that is strangling the world, and giving rise to the pressures on environment, food, water and resources.
In fact we in the West may not be in a position to stop it, because we will not be immune from the affects ourselves, as is witnessed by the millions of migrants clamouring to get to Europe and the USA. A depressing thought, but let us face some facts, the higher survival rates of populations around the world, has not been matched by the expected falling birth rates that the altruistic thought would occur, and that, accompanied by the introduction of medicine, clean water etc from the West, is only exacerbating these trends.
The world’s future doesn’t look a rosy thing when viewed through my glasses, but at least they are not rose tinted.
Update:
As of 2018 the populations are:
Jordan - 9,903,802 million
Israel - 8,452,841 million
Egypt - 99,375,741 million
State of Palestine - 5,052,776 million
Links:
China loses 10% of arable land
War looms over Nile Dam - Ethiopia and the Southern Sudan argue with Sudan and Egypt february 2018 - UN predicts water shortages in Egypt by 2025.
Malthus was wrong 200 years ago, and everyone, and I mean everyone, without exception, who has followed Malthus has been wrong since. Zimbabwe's problems have nothing to do with overpopulation (it's population is by no means high, or particularly dense), and everything to do with mismanagement of the economy. Energy is not running out - only oil. There's plenty of nuclear power. Food is not running out - far from it, half the world is overweight. Migration has nothing to do with overpopulation, but to do with unequal distribution of wealth around the globe. People don't move from densely populated areas to thinly populated areas - they move from poor areas (usually less densely populated) to rich areas (usually very densely populated megapolises). There is no shortage of potable water. Sure, there are dry regions of the world, but the actual amount of freshwater available, and water that can be made fresh far exceeds our needs.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for your comment. My blog on Zimbabwe doesn't refer to Malthus in fact in this Blog on Malthus, I point out that life expectancy in Zim has fallen in the last 30 yrs.
ReplyDeleteMy comments on the Zimbabwe (http://nopcthoughtshere.blogspot.com/2007/03/zimbabwe.html) refer to the regime as the problem for that country.
As for the arguments about this blog, well, Nuclear is an option but in a world where nuclear also means 'Bombs', there is great resistance to fully implementing it: Iran wants it and the rest of the world don't want them to.
People migrate to cities for many reasons, but one is rural poverty that is rarely addressed. China has witnessed the same sort of migrations to the cities that occurred in Victorian England, but are now trying to prevent it. Other countries have not managed it as well, and have cities such as Calcutta or Mexico city that cannot provide employment, housing or water for their citzens. They end up living on the streets.
The loss of arable land to development or degradation must be acknowleged as a primary driver of the shift to cities. In the long term, no arable land means no food.
Potable water supplies are not infinite, and half the world now has insecure supplies. If there was a will, most countries could manage with desalination plants etc, but if you look at manu poor countries like Bangladesh, then they will spend more money on weapons than on clean water.
The World population has doubled in the last 50 years, and will likely double again in the next 50. The amount of rainfall hasn't. Desalination plants will work, but they need building and do nothing for land locked countries.
I guess you and me aren't going to agree on how we intepret these facts. I consider that nearly global indicator shows that 2050 is a crunch year for many indicators - for good or bad.
The things you're worrying about are not insoluble problems. To suppose they will not be solved is typically malthusian, and wrong.
ReplyDeleteIf people face a choice between the lights going out, and having nuclear power, you can be sure they will choose nuclear power. Worries about bombs will not prevent it. When it comes to sacrificing one's standard of living, abstract anxieties will always be trumped.
Potable water supplies are not infinite, but there's enough for about a thousand times as many people as actually live in the world. It's just a question of getting the people to the water, or the water to the people. Essentially, a logistical issue.
Arable land is reducing in amount, but food output from such land as remains is increasing. We produce more food than we need. Half the world is overweight, and we still manage to throw away as much food as we eat. If we combine genetic engineering with factory methods of food production (imagine culturing food products in bioreactors from GM bacteria, algae and fungi), we could conceivably grow 1000 times as much food per hectare as we do now. Agricultural land would become valueless.
If food ever became scarce (there's no realistic chance that it will), we would stop eating the stuff that's expensive to make, such as meat.
The world's population is expected to peak at 9.5 to 11 billion some time around the middle or latter half of the 21st century. Yet, if we used our resources efficiently, we could easily feed, house and supply energy for a developed-world lifestyle to 90 billion. (And there's enough space. If everyone lived in a giant suburb, 90 billion people could all live in an area about the size of Canada, leaving the rest of the world empty.)
You really have to appreciate the potential of our technology, and the physical reality that there is more energy in the earth (in the form of abundant nuclear fuels), and reaching the earth from the sun than we need, and more water than we could ever drink. Nor is there any scarcity of the carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, silicon and oxygen, the main ingredients of life, and the stuff from which, with the help of technology, everything soft or hard that we need for the practicalities of life can be made.
All shortages and scarcities are local and temporary, and are caused by bad organization and inadequate exploitation of technology. Overpopulation has nothing whatsoever to do with it.
The world's population is growing a lot more slowly than it was fifty years ago. It would be a miracle if the population doubled between now and 2057.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, technology is developing faster now than it was fifty years ago.
You're making the same mistake as Malthus: assuming population will keep growing, while technology remains the same.
It’s interesting that both the two latest comments essentially dismiss the points made in this blog subject, in that they both consider that
ReplyDelete1) Nuclear power is available to all, and
2) Technology is outstripping the problems, and that
3) Food production "is (still) increasing".
All will therefore be well, with just a little bit of altruism and logistics.
However the main thrusts of these rebuttals are very western liberal in their optimism. We could all live together in one happy family, in giant cities or in Canada, and leave the rest of the planet for food.
In the real world however these things won’t happen, in the real world:
1a) Nuclear power is not available to all, the West has already denied it to Iraq (under Saddam), and is now trying to stop it in N Korea, and Iran. Now it’s a funny kinda imperialism that says that “only regimes we approve of” get nuclear power, the rest don’t. However it may be common sense that equatorial guinea is not a nuclear power.
2a) Technology is not developing that fast outside of computing power and is not free to all. Intellectual property rights etc mean that whilst technology is available if you have money, it’s not if you don’t.
3a) As linked in the main blog, there is evidence that the "green revolution" has (at least for the moment) run its course. Food production is not increasing, and the solution of ‘cultured food’ requires technology that those countries that will most need the food, cannot afford.
The world population estimates for 2050 range from an optimistic 9 billion, to up to 12 billion, which is effectively “a doubling” of the worlds population in the next 50 yrs. In fact all these projections of growth are assuming only that “the rates of increase will fall universally towards western rates of growth”. The evidence of this happening is at best patchy and maybe non existent. The theory that, as peoples gain in prosperity they will cut the size of their families, as has occurred in the West may just be that, a theory. The Muslim world for example has shown no signs to date of following this trend with a population growth that has will have trebled since 1950.
Middle Eastern Governments have already declared that any future war will be prompted over water. In fact expecting countries that currently are in a state of undeclared war such as Iran and Israel to "co-operate" on any project seems to be at best wildly hopeful, and at worst incredibly naïve.
Finally, all of the opposition to the idea that Malthus’s theory may well have reached its time is based upon the fact that “You're making the same mistake as Malthus: assuming population will keep growing, while technology remains the same.” However I submit that maybe the basic theory is correct, and that its detractors are making a similar mistake to him, but that in their case they are making the assumption that technological advancement will always meet any crisis.
The evidence that this assumption is any truer than Malthus’s original assumption, that food production levels would remain the same, is not there. Altruism has never been humanities strongest trait. Politics and Religious considerations will determine how the population crisis is tackled, but most certainly it will not be in a spirit of altruistic harmony.
Therefore any solutions will have to take those factors into account, and not simply rely on Nuclear power, food technology and altruism
Its now 12 months since this blog was posted, and there are food riots in Haiti
ReplyDeletehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7337792.stm
as well as other areas, with people killed .. morrocco had serious problems last month.
The massive food hikes have affected the poor across the third world.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7330168.stm
with Rice prices affecting many countries
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7341978.stm
I would say that at the moment the Malthusians are being proved right.
Too many mouths and not enough food ... yes we could all eat soya and feed the world but lets be realistic ... the poor go hungry and the rich eat, even in the third world.
Just handing out ffod or manoey aid is like sticking a plaster on an elephant, it don't disguise it.
We are now overpopulated and until the third world introduces strict policies about numbers, these food riots and famines will just get worse.
PC Liberals will have to face up to the fact that some cultures breed themsleves upto the edge of famine unless stopped.