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Sunday, 28 August 2011

China: Cold War Hots Up

Increasingly the US and China are acting as though the 'Cold War' that had existed between the US and USSR in earlier decades has never ended and that they have inherited that mantle. I say that, because its increasingly obvious that the Chinese have two expansionist foreign policy objectives (as well as their interests in Africa), that are going to require the deployment (or the credible threat) of armed force.

 The two main objectives are:
  1. "Reunion" with Taiwan, by whatever means, and 
  2. The Chinese quite ridiculously claim all the islands in the South China seas, including the Spratly Isles (which as you can see from this map, actually run up to within 30 miles of the Philippines), that are well over a 1,000 miles from the Chinese mainland at their furthest point.  
South China Sea

 
The Taiwan issue is complicated by the fact that its a long-standing ally of the United States, and the Chinese Military need to be able to stop the US Military from supporting Taiwan, if Chinese forces ever blockaded, or even invaded Taiwan.
 
The Spratly Islands issue, is also aggravated by the fact that China's ambitions appear to be nothing more than a naked land resources grab, with little or no historical / geographical precedent. This has led to counter claims that all of the Spratly Islands are Vietnamese territory. Various other parts of the local islands are claimed by Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines; and Brunei implicitly lays claim to Louisa Reef, by including it within the natural prolongation of its continental shelf, in another dispute with Vietnam, over a seabed median demarcation. Again if the Chinese ever choose to enforce their claims, then they need to be able to stop the US from backing any other claimants (including another long-term ally in the Philippines).

So The Chinese have been increasingly challenging US power in the region by a series of actions guaranteed to raise tensions between the two super powers.
  • China conducted the first test-flights of its new J20 stealth aircraft, and
  • Sea trials of its new aircraft carrier (an old Soviet carrier) are underway now, and its expected to begin construction on a home-grown carrier this year.
  • Development of carrier buster missiles (Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs) launched from submarines) which are the real threat to the US carrier groups.
  • The Peoples Liberation Army is working hard to develop its asymmetric warfare techniques against US command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance infrastructure, known as "C4ISR" in military parlance.
  • In 2010 and continuing into 2011, numerous US government computer systems were the target of intrusions "focused on exfiltrating information," that appeared to all have originated from within China.
  • The Peoples Liberation Army has successfully tested advanced anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons systems, and it can now destroy US satellites in space. 
An Expansionist China Has Modern Armed Forces
An Expansionist China Has Modern Armed Forces
 
Tensions between China and all its neighbours are rising, especially as US influence declines in the region and as mentioned here before, China is not some 'cuddly Panda regime'.... its a one party, Maoist Communist dictatorship, with a history of occupation (Tibet). The Dragon is Red in Tooth And Claw, and we should always be aware of this fact.

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