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Thursday 14 August 2008

USA...... Habla Usted Español Signor?

Well something of a Bombshell on the demographic front today .......

US Population Predictions
US Population Predictions

 

...... White America is being replaced as the dominant group in the US, by a combination of Hispanics, Asians and Blacks!

This isn't going to go down well in certain quarters, and Barak Obama could have done without this news methinks. Of course there are many a 'slip between cup and lip' in the prediction by the US Census Bureau, that by 2042 (yes a mere 34 years) the White Europeans will be a minority in their own country. 

We had something similar here last year, but it assumes no change in current trends, and in a blog last year, in which I predicted this very news, I included the latest censuses from the UK and US and elsewhere, and which illustrate that the UK for example, is preponderantly white, despite our politicians best attempts to change this.

Of course, if you class all Hispanics as not of "White European" descent, then this US prediction may be true, but we don't class the Spanish as 'non white' in Europe, and many US 'Hispanics' are ethnically 'white' by any definition e.g. the actor Martin Sheen (born Ramón Gerardo Antonio Estévez) who plays Pres. Bartlett in The West Wing and who is also 'Hispanic', as are his kids Emilio, Ramón, Carlos (better known as Charlie Sheen) and Renée. No one would call them 'non white' if that was a concern, but they illustrate that the US definition of 'Hispanic' is a very wide one.

Of course, in the longer term, the US will become a majority Spanish speaking country, probably by the end of the century, but how much that changes the US is debatable, as second generation Hispanics often become main stream in the US, as the Estévez family amply demonstrate. The same applies to 'Asians' (which again in US definitions, includes, Orientals, and those from the Indian sub continent, or those from the Middle East), and who outside of the Muslims, largely assimilate into the US way within a generation or two.

Even in Europe, the rise of Islam is much debated, but Europe will be White dominated for at least another century or so, and despite the 'radicals', many 'Muslims' who are better educated, have turned their backs on that sort of Islam, and are integrated into the cultures of their adopted homelands. Radicals always make more news than moderates, and that's what makes the 'threat' seem greater than it is, not that its not there, but it's not as great as portrayed on US web sites of a certain type.

Still this news will be food for thought in the US and elsewhere, partly because its 50 years earlier than previous predictions of US demographic changes, and also because of its possible impacts on US policies in the future, as well as voting patterns in the US - the Democrats appear to have a strong future.

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