The news of fighting between, Georgia, Russia and Ossetian nationalists has broken very quickly this week, and most of the world seems surprised ....
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| South Ossetia |
but in fact British Intelligence apparently predicted the likelihood of a "European" war in the Caucuses this year.
For those who follow the Byzantine politics of this region its not really a surprise. Russia under Putin had a very large thumb in the Caucasian pie as it sees the region as solely its sphere of influence and the recent setting up of US army bases in the region has caused much consternation.
Also, the EU and US handed Russia the chance to play the 'hypocrisy' card, by backing the breakaway of Kosovo, which Russia bitterly opposed, so allowing it now to back the breakaway South Ossetian's and saying the 'principle is the same'..... which of course it is.
This Blog suggested at the time, that we were wrong to start backing break ups of states on the basis of religious or ethnic minorities demands, because it opens up most of Europe to the same claims e.g. Muslims in the UK demanding (which some already do) Sharia law, or Basques breaking away from Spain etc etc etc
Well, this seems to the first of many possible such conflicts triggered by the Kosovo decision....
They say that you 'reap what you sow', and we are sowing the seeds of future conflicts with a grim disregard for the likely results.
Are the Russians going to allow North Ossetia to secede from the Russian state now that they have forced South Ossetia from Georgia?
ReplyDeleteNo? I didn't think so!
Must be a first for the British Intelligence Agency, a prediction that came to fruition.
ReplyDeleteLike you said, what goes around comes around. The west is hardly in any morale position to complain about the actions of Russia. And while we are not party to the reasons the Georgians decided to start this thing off, they surely must have thought about a possible Russian reaction.
Don't prod a sleeping bear with a pointy stick.
kev
Yep the pointy stick was well and truly prodded and that was a big BIG mistake.
ReplyDeleteThe message to all rthe Russian border states with "Russian" minorities has been loudly sent ... Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Khazakstan etc etc (The empire can be revived!)