The Shape Of Things To Come?

With the turmoil in the Arab world apparently still flaring up, we may have to face a future where the Mullahs hold sway from Pakistan in central Asia to Morocco on the Atlantic .... a sort of 21st century version of the 8th century 'Caliphate'.


The "Caliphate" covered much the same lands
where the Mullahs could hold sway

This has been the dream of many Islamists since it collapsed .... Bin Ladin and others are still striving for its return and even to expand it in to Europe and beyond. At the moment its fair to say that the 'revolutions' could still produce a more 'democratic' Islamic world, but then again, a prudent man would look at what normally erupts from these deserts and consider the possibility that it will actually be more repressive.

As examples of what I mean, lets take two cases, Libya and Jordan .... one is fighting for its very existence as one state, and had laboured under what was generally acknowledged to be, a very corrupt and repressive regime under Gaddafi, while the other is generally reckoned to be governed by a benign (for the Arab world) centralised monarchy under King Abdullah, but which has also seen 'democracy' demonstrations.

In Libya, there has been some talk of restoring the old ineffective Royal family which came from the al-Sanusi blood line. This was nearly eradicated by Gaddafi, but as it was also a religious order/sect in Islam it survived. As you may have guessed the direct descendants of King Idris went to 'Londonistan' in exile, but the current head of the religious movement is one Sheikh Mohammed Sanusi .... who is still in Libya. 

Now some people (mainly Muslims) would describe the Sanusi (aka Senussi) movement as humanitarian and 'moderate,' movement, but a recent BBC interview suggests that there may be another Khomeini lying wait. He is quoted as starting the interview with a statement of his position:

"I'm angry with Christians and Jews, because the Christian and Jewish holy books have been changed many times over the centuries," he says. "The Koran has been *unaltered for 1,400 years. You should read the Koran, become a Muslim and earn your place in paradise."


The Man Who Would Be King (maker)

He then goes on to expound his biggest concern about all the fighting in Libya, this is that:

'If the violence in the region continues, so many men will lose their lives that the ratio of women to men will increase to 50:1 and this will lead to outbreaks of lesbianism and same-sex marriages that will represent a real problem for Muslim society.'  

... remember this 'moderate' man may well influence where Libya goes next.

Meanwhile in The Kingdom of Jordan, the demonstrations have not been so violent as elsewhere, but are a concern to the ruling family nonetheless, particularly as they have attracted the participation of the small but growing Salafist Jihadists in the country .... these are violent and extremist men, who ultimately want the 'Caliphate' restored, and will kill to achieve it.

This Salafist is one possible future for Jordan

There are groups like this around the Arab and Muslim World .... they rule by terror, and by simply claiming that anyone who denounces them in a mosque isn't a Muslim, and should be killed. This is why no moderate Islam ever develops, it is killed at its inception by bearded extremists and a 'fatwah'.

The jury is out on what all this will mean for the Muslim and wider world, but prudence says we should plan for this worst case scenario and hope for the best case .....

* Note: This claim is not actually true ... while modern Muslims often assert that the current Koran is identical to that recited by Muhammad, some earlier Muslims were more flexible. 'Uthman, A'isha, and Ibn Ka'b (among others) all insisted that much of the Koran had been lost. Even in the 10th century, after standardisations of the text had been achieved, under the influence of Ibn Mujahid. he admitted that he knew of at least fourteen versions of the Koran, which were not merely differences in recitation; they were actual written variations.