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Friday, 9 January 2015

US Presidential Dynasty's

Who would have thought it (well we did sometime ago), but another cowboy is preparing to ride into town, as ex-Florida governor Jeb Bush, brother and son of US Presidents, is taking the first little steps towards a run on the White House in 2016. Now unlike his brother, he is pro-immigration reform, his wife being a Mexican national, and he supports the federal Common Core education programme, and doesn't belong to the religious wing of the Republican party.

This means that he's old school, Republican Party mainstream, and in that respect an ideal national candidate (and ignoring the 'hanging chads' debate, he has a good record as governor), but his chances of winning the nomination are still considerably less than 50%, however still better than most of the other candidates.

His problems are mainly because he has no caucus in the 'T Party' republican wing, nor any leverage with the religious right, like his brother had. This may well turn out be a big handicap to gaining the nomination, if anyone vaguely credible to either, or both of these strands of republicanism is standing against him .... he has to hope that as the 'establishment candidate', the adage "Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line." applies in his case.

So he's going to meet a few pressure groups next year, do some national whistle stop flying visits, and eat an awful lot of chicken, to see if any of the various pressure groups can be persuaded to back him ~ flash polls suggest that he has 14.5% support, which is a four-point lead over his nearest possible opponent, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. ..... but oddly, for a 'republican' party, the fact that Bush represents yet another scion of a political dynasty, standing for the highest office, is not seen as a handicap or even non republican.

In fact for a republic, the US has quite quickly become used to some very rich families pulling many of the political strings and running the country ... in many ways these families are like the royal families of medieval England (see the houses of York or Lancaster, and the Percy's etc), all plotting for the highest role .... but in fact of course, according to legend, George Washington was offered 'the throne' of America before becoming 'second' President (after President 'Hancock' ... the first president of congress, not general Washington) ... had he accepted the crown, the current King would be 'Paul the First', a retired manager of a building-supply company based in Valley Forge.

Locally, many of these political families have regional power bases in one or two states (which are akin to the barons land holdings in some counties in 'Ye Olde England') ... these dynasties include the Rockefeller family who have been elected in New York, West Virginia, and Arkansas; and the Udall family who first became prominent in Arizona and still holds several state roles there.

Nationally, the Kennedy's (who have been out of the main power job for a long time now) were the first of the dynasty families, with bases in New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, and California, then came  the Bushes in Ohio, Connecticut, Texas and Florida, and also maybe the Clinton's of New York and Arkansas (if Hilary gets the democratic nomination as is expected) ... so definite signs that the US is developing a political royalty ....

We Three Kings - US Presidential Royalty.

But back to the 'Grand Ol Party' ... demographically they shouldn't really win national elections anymore as they don't appeal to black or Spanish speaking voters, but somehow they do (a bit like the Tories in the UK), however it has to be said that they handicap themselves with the way their party selection process is structured. Perhaps its time for the establishment of the GOP to politely, but very firmly, kick out the Tea Party (and the religious right), the likelihood then is that it would then become a 'moderate', in US terms, party. In the US fiscally conservative, socially moderate parties are very electable, and if nothing else would likely win every Presidential election.

Possibly not taking the House or the Senate every time, but the Presidency practically every-time .... the pity for Jeb Bush (as it was for Mitt Romney), is that they won't do this, and so electorally damaging compromises have to be made to gain the nomination, which virtually destroy the successful Republican candidates as they have to try and win non Republican votes.

4 comments:

  1. Looks like the Duck Dynasty have a rival with a Fresa Family from Texas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fresa? as in 'Freezer'? or is this slang for something? I am sure its not complimentary LOL .... Thanks for the comment.

      Delete
    2. FYI. Fresa is a Mexican or Mexican American term for preppy upper class US rich. The sorts who have Mexican maids, drivers and gardeners. The Bushes all fit the bill.

      Delete
    3. One of them even has a Mexican wife .... I didn't know there was a term for this. Thanks for the comment ... and a new slang term as well.

      Delete

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