UK Election 2024

 I suppose I should make some comment on the UK election ....

UK Election 2024

It was won by a Labour landslide and a modern record number of MP's

But strangely, with a lower proportion of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn achieved, when losing in the last election. So how was this feat achieved? 

Well it was a combination of factors combining unexpectedly, in producing a fluke result. This is often the case with landslide victories. For instance, the 1945 Landslide victory for Labour, against a war winning Conservative prime minister, was a combination of:

• A war weary population, on meagre food rations, and desperate for a change and peace.
• A populist Labour Party program of health and wealth reforms, versus a more of the same policies by the Conservatives.
• Soldiers, voting from continuing battlefields in the Far East, and facing up to the devastation in a Europe just freed from the Nazi's and wanting to come home to a better future.
  

This time, well,

• The Conservatives had under Boris Johnstone been dealt the bad-luck of Covid (which drained public finances and led to tax increases), but had also been inept in some areas, and when Boris fell under he and his personal staffs behaviour during lockdown protocols, the party elected Lizz Truss whose government collapsed quickly, after a disastrous Budget, and who was succeeded by Rishi Sunak, who failed to get any real policies through. e.g. dealing with the illegal immigrants. They looked inept and toothless.
• The Labour Party had dropped many of its dafter policies (but not all, they still think trans-gender rights are a national priority, despite the public obviously being unhappy with the issue), and also many of its dafter MP's such as ex-leader Corbyn (who won his seat as an independent). So looked electable again.
• Boundary changes - the boundary commission had revised a number of seat boundaries to reflect population changes this brought an element of uncertainty to many seats as areas were bolted together. 
  
• And there there was the other wild-card factor: The Reform UK Party, led by ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

It was this last wild-card factor that turned a likely normal win by Labour, into a rout of the Conservatives. Its often forgotten that parties lose votes from their political extremities, and not necessarily just the centre of politics .... for instance the Conservatives had gained on its right wing when the UKIP party declined, once they were told there would be a Brexit vote .... many of those former UKIP voters had turned to the Conservatives, and this included in the North of England, many former Labour voters who had voted for Brexit.

But the Conservatives failure to enact evening-up polices in the north, coupled with a failure to tackle issues such as immigration, meant that its right-wing support had become fragile and started drifting away .... the siren calls of the Reform Party UK on issues such as Law and Order, Immigration, and Taxes drew many on the right-wing of the Conservative voting pool. The Conservatives didn't react to this threat until way too late, and come election date, a large percentage of their voters turned to the Reform UK Party on the day, thus leading to a landslide Labour Party Win.

An example of the damage done to the Conservatives by Reform, can be seen in one seat that I've taken as an example. Blackpool North And Fleetwood (replacing Blackpool North and Cleveleys after boundary changes) - the Sitting Conservative MP of the old boundary seat was Paul Maynard.

Party	Candidate	Vote	Percentage
Labour	Lorraine Beavers	16,744	40.0
Conservative	Paul Maynard	12,097	28.9
Reform UK	Dan Barker	9,913	23.7

As you can see, even despite Labours revival (with Fleetwood being a Labour strong hold) Maynard would have held his seat if not for the arrival of the Reform UK, who had not been around in the last election.

This example was repeated across the country, and fragmented the right of UK politics, and simply led to a walk over for Labour in many seats that they wouldn't have won. Nigel Farage has been a wrecker on the right of UK politics since he first emerged, and could, if he stays around, lead to the UK having a series of Labour Governments, as his party fractures the right vote of the UK. 

His stated aim to replace the Conservative party is unlikely, he has a few seats but the next Conservative leader presumably will simply promise much the same policies as Reform UK, and thus undercut the political ground Farage walks on.