Mammoth News

In one of those stories that any reader of this blog will know that I can't resist, there have been reports that a 'Woolly Mammoth' has been filmed in Siberia ..... and here's what's causing the stir

Siberian Mammoth 2012

Superficially this picture and the accompanying, but strangely short video (... less than 10 seconds long), appear to be proof positive that Mammoths survived in Siberia from the Pleistocene. But there are in fact several issues with this story that show it to be possibly not quite what it seems.

Soul Search

When it comes to people, there are in fact only three types ..... 'believers', 'not sures', and the 'non believers' aka 'the Religious', 'the Agnostics' and 'the Atheists'. Now it doesn't matter if we are born in Christian, Jewish, Buddhist, Muslim or any other religion, we are all trained from childhood to the idea that there is in fact some sort of afterlife and that we all have some sort of immortal spirit, or soul if you will.

Now I am not discussing the nature of the belief: Catholic, Orthodox or Protestant; Shia or Sunni; a follower of Krishna, Jehovah, or Allah (I don't believe that Jehovah and Allah are the same god, just look at what Muslims are currently doing in the belief that Allah will take them to paradise for doing it .... that ain't the Christian god), no I am just talking about the belief in immortality through the possession of a soul.

Now this belief certainly predates the birth of modern religions, and there is considerable evidence that shows that there was an almost world wide belief in an earth mother matriarchal type deity, administered by shamans and later possibly druids, for thousands of years before the current religions took shape.

Mother Goddess figures 25000 yrs ago - Proof belief in afterlife?

Archaeological finds suggest that both the early Homo Sapiens and that other early human species, the Neanderthal believed in some sort of soul .... they buried their fellows with ceremony and mysticism and most importantly seemingly with grave goods. These grave goods, to be carried by the dead into the next realm, only make sense if there was a belief that death was not the end, but rather the beginning.

So this belief in a spirit, or soul is likely to be very very old, but now, for perhaps for the very first time in human history, many people say that they are either not sure whether there is an afterlife (although maybe with a soul) or that there is not an afterlife and no soul. Many philosophers have debated it, and one, Blaise Pascal, described the reasons why it was best to believe in an immortal soul and god, in what became known as 'Pascal's wager' which is illustrated below.

Pascal's Wager about God.

Generally I lean towards the non belief end of the religious debate, but just occasionally I am given pause for thought ..... recently I was watching the episode of "The Simpson's" in which Bart Simpson sells his soul to his friend Milhouse, with much unhappiness until he got the bit of paper back from Milhouse.

Bart Sells His Soul - Then Suffers

This show made me stop and think. Even though I consider myself rational, and not subject to the superstitions required to believe in the supernatural .... if someone approached me and offered me a sum of money, say £10,000 or $15,000, for a signed bit of paper in which I gave them 'my immortal soul', would I do it?

The true answer?

I don't think I would, but I can't give a logical explanation as to why I wouldn't feel comfortable about doing it. This admission of my secret doubts has made me think about my belief in non belief ... this isn't as secure as I would generally like to think.

Them and US

"I am for the Declaration of Independence; he is for the writing of Saul Alinsky. I am for the Constitution; he is for European socialism" is the current rallying cry of would be Republican Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich. Its a call that's apparently fallen on deaf ears, as he has seemingly just lost Nevada's Republican caucuses, and following the loss of Florida, will surely cause him to stand aside from the race soon. He has to win Texas, or he's finished.

However his claim that 'arch right winger' Mitt Romney is a secret 'European Socialist', whilst risible by any European politicians definition of 'Socialist' (Even Pres. Obama would be at best 'centre right' and mostly 'right-wing' by European standards'), is worthy of a small examination.

If 'Europe' is now the dirty word in American politics, then lets look a some of the principle policies that separate us from each other ....

The Things That Divide Them From U.S.

I guess it depends on which 'Europe' the US commentators are looking at .... Oddly, the US system of restricted health provision is far more expensive than the near 'universal' European models. The US pays 17.4% of GDP for a health system that leaves millions with minimal health coverage, while the near universal European health care model costs an average of about 10 - 11% of GDP.   

You would think that the Republicans would welcome adopting a health system that covered everyone, and was vastly cheaper to pay for, a 'win win option' for them in the elections, but then who ever said that logic has anything to do with politics?

Whats A Greek Urn?

There are four reasons why the Greek bailout will fail and Greece will leave the Euro:

1. After joining the euro in 2001, the Greek unit labour costs (a measure of wage competitiveness) have risen 32% compared with for example Germany i.e. They are paid like Germans but work like Greeks (which is the wrong way round).
2. The Greek current account deficit - which is a broad measure of its trade deficit - is still  running at 10% of GDP (total economic output) in the middle of last year i.e. The Greeks are buying 10% more than they sell and can't borrow to finance the shortfall.
3. Greek households and companies withdrew 28% of the deposits they held in Greek banks in the three years to November last year, and this withdrawal rate has been accelerating. i.e. The Greeks are having a slow run on their own banks, as companies - and increasingly ordinary Greeks - take their money out in cash, or move it to the safety of a bank account in Germany or Switzerland.
4. The Greek economy shrank 5.5% last year, and has shrunk a cumulative 12% since 2008. its predicted to shrink another 2.8% this year.

What this tells any analyst is two really big things:

1. That not only are things not getting better, but that even if they were, its not fast enough, and
2. The Greek public are pulling out of their own economy, to put their money into Germany's (whilst also dodging even more Greek taxes, thus making the situation worse).  

Only A Greek Hero Can Get Them Out Of The Mess!

In even starker terms, the Greeks have only one option in order to be able to compete within the European or world markets ..... massive wage cuts.

I remember at the time of entry into the Euro that the Greeks all hiked up their wages, and lost their competitiveness. The locals told me that they were entitled to be paid 'like Northerners' once they entered the Euro Zone.  In the past, devaluations of the Drachma had always compensated for local wage inflation and brought competitiveness back, but now that didn't happen as the Euro was supported by the Germans.

By the time that they default, the Greeks may well have abandoned their own economy and banks to the foreigners who lent them money, and be the only people not hurt in the fallout ..... now that will be a trick worthy of Odysseus himself if they pull this off.

Love on The Dole

In a story that displays everything that’s wrong in the Welfare benefits system in the UK, the BBC has run a post about the proposed cap on the amount of benefits a family can receive. I can only assume that the BBC picked this particular family of unemployed husband and wife and their seven kids living in north Wales, so that we workers can feel sorry for them.

He was an I.T. programmer who found that work in his ‘specialised field’ dried up, and he stopped work 10 yrs ago – he apparently didn't feel the urge or need to retrain or branch out into other programming fields. Frankly any programmer worth their salt could have found contract work easily up until a couple of years or so …. There are I.T. contractors working at my office now.

This man and his families current benefit level is £30,284.80 pa net (US $47,943.87 pa) .... and he justifies his benefit levels and the expenditure it supports as follows:

• Pubs - 'I go out once a week, on a Friday night. I meet up with my mates in the pub and have three or four pints'... most married men can only do the same.
• Satellite TV - 'We get the Sky Movies package because we're stuck in the house all week - otherwise we wouldn't have any entertainment.' – Freeview TV is not good enough for a man who hasn't worked for a decade
• The family all have mobile phones - 'My wife and I have mobile phones, and so do all of the teenage children. You try telling teenagers they're going to have to do without their mobiles and there'll be hell to pay.' – noticeably he doesn't need one to look for work.
• Cigarettes and Alcohol – His weekly household shop includes 24 cans of lager, 200 cigarettes and a large pouch of tobacco - ‘On the cigarettes, my wife tried to give up, but she missed one appointment on the course and they threw her off it.' – he apparently has never tried to give up, but then he needs his beer and cigarettes to sit and watch his satellite TV package when he’s not going to the pub.
• Life in North Wales - 'this is social housing in Wales, so the rent is hardly massive. If we rented privately in this area, then the cost would be four or five times as much.' – meaning he has a house which is subsidised already and for which the government pays the rent.

North Wales - There are worse places to be.

He goes to bed and gets up as he wishes – he has no worries over having a roof over his head, he has no issues about commuting to work every day, or losing his job, or where the next mortgage (rent) payment is coming from. In fact his only concern is that by capping his benefits he may have to give up his 24 cans of beer, his Sky movie package, his cigarettes, or his Mobile phones.

We have posted on this benefit trap once or twice before, and in one of those posts we highlighted the case of a woman who while not working and apparently medically disabled, was having children with different men, and who considered that ‘the state is my breadwinner’.

This lifestyle is so attractive, that millions in the UK apparently aspire to it – family and security with no worries … indeed many people in the EU and elsewhere in the world share this same aspiration, which is maybe why getting into to the UK and on to the benefits gravy train, is such a popular pastime at Heathrow and other entry points in the UK. As a government minister recently said “Importing economic dependency on the state is unacceptable”.

In the meantime the political cronies of the Labour and Liberal Parties in the House of Lords (there are no real lords there anymore), have voted consistently to ensure that there is no adequate cap on benefit payments, despite the obvious public appetite to stop this gravy train.

Many of us would suggest that the limit of £26,000 (US $41,160.60) is still far, far, too generous, and with way too many exemptions on even that amount. A limit of closer to £20,000 net pa (which would still be very generous), would be more likely to encourage the idle to return to work, and prevent people like this man from drifting into to the comfort zone of a supported lifestyle that most can only aspire to, and that couldn't reasonably be attained by normal work.

There is something very rotten in the state of the UK (or Denmark if they are stupid enough to be as generous), when it’s benefit culture and the lifestyle that it can support, props up so many who require so much and who return so little.