It is often said the world's next world war will be fought over water ....
.... indeed its been touched upon in this blog.
However it appears that as climate change impacts on rainfall then there are parts of the world where they are getting tense over securing 'their' water supplies. The current biggest damp spot, is the Nile river, which Egypt has long considered itself to be the policeman of. The Pharaohs declared that "Egypt was the gift of the Nile", and changes of religion haven't altered that view, and so it considers any threat to Egypt's water as a threat to its sovereignty.
But now Ethiopia have a giant $4bn (£3bn) hydro-electric under construction on the blue Nile, as part of a plan to deal with the doubling of the continent's population over the next 30 years. Ethiopia hopes to transform itself into a middle-income country, with electricity in abundance enough to export. So it is building Africa's largest hydroelectric power station and one of the world's largest dams, to provide a 6,000 megawatt capacity, which is the equivalent of at least six nuclear power plants of renewable energy. Ethiopia wants to pay for this project itself, without international help and its sees the project as a proud national achievement.
In this aim, its downstream neighbour Sudan supports this, as the cheap power will benefit its economy as well. Sudan has not apparently got concerns over any disruption of its water supplies, in fact rather the opposite. At the moment the difference between high water and low water level in Sudan is 8m, and that makes its vast irrigation projects harder to manage. But with the dam in place, the difference will be just 2m, and the flow of the river will come year-round, thus greening vast swathes of Sudan for the whole year.
However Egypt objects strenuously to this dam, but can't halt its construction without military force, and probably only then with Sudan's assistance. So currently its trying to slow down Ethiopia's plans to fill up the giant dam inside a six year window, as the speed with which Ethiopia fills up the dam will affect the flow downstream. Its proposing instead a minimum ten year fill up period, as Egypt fears that even a reduction of flow by 2 per cent, would cost it about 200,000 acres of productive farmland land, and put one million peoples livelihoods at risk. Egypt is currently using more water than its internal renewable resources - mainly based on Nile fresh water inflows - supply. Water stress in Egypt is expected to further increase in the future, as a result of rapid population growth, rising temperatures, and increasing water consumption.
Talks are being held in Washington between the three parties about Ethiopia's construction of this Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but although Egypt has suggested these are 'negotiations,' the Ethiopians have declared that the meeting is not a platform for technical negotiations, nor in fact a negotiation. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently told parliamentarians in Addis Ababa that "no force can stop Ethiopia" from building the dam.
The latest update is that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have agreed to work toward completion of an agreement by 15 January 2020, but if an agreement is not reached by then, the three countries will settle disputes, arising out of the interpretation or implementation of this agreement, amicably, through consultation or negotiation in accordance with the principle of good faith.
Even so, it looks as though nothing much will be achieved from Egypt's point of view, but as the UN predicts that Egypt will start suffering water shortages by 2025, and relies on the Nile for 80% of its water, and 85% of the flow it receives comes from the Blue Nile branch, then the possibility of armed conflict is still there, if currently remote.
But on 25/02/2020 it was reported that Ethiopia's Water Minister Seleshi Bekele has said the country will not participate in fresh talks on the future of the hydro-power project on the Nile River due be hosted by the United States on Thursday and Friday in Washington.
Elsewhere in the world, other tensions over water supply are mounting:
The Euphrates-Tigris Basin:
This is shared between Turkey, Syria and Iraq (with Iran sharing part of just the Tigris basin). Since the 1960s, unilateral irrigation plans altering the flows of the rivers, coupled with the political tensions between the countries, have strained relations in the basin. Disputes have prevented the three governments from effectively co-managing the basin’s rivers. Although cooperation efforts were renewed in the 2000s, these have yet to result in a formal agreement on managing the basin water and the violent nature of the geopolitics in this area (including the fact that this a Kurdish area), have also made peaceful progress unlikely.
Helmand River and the Harirud:
Afghanistan’s efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand River and the Harirud, to support post-conflict reconstruction and development have alarmed Iran which perceives Afghanistan’s agricultural expansion and dam construction activities as threats to water security in its eastern and north eastern provinces. There is a treaty in place which is largely ignored.
Dam projects and disputes in the Mekong River Basin:
The Mekong basin is witnessing an enormous expansion of dam-building for hydropower generation, especially in China and Laos. This has led to diplomatic tensions as countries downstream of the dams fear the negative impacts they may bring about, from greater flooding, to seasonal lack of water. China is not willing to be adjudicated by The Mekong River Commission’s (MRC), and much like its South China Seas policies, is going it alone.
Climate change, is one horseman of the apocalypse (famine/thirst), and it could soon be joined by another three Death, War, and Conquest as countries strive to secure dwindling resources for themselves.
 |
| Fighting Over Water Could Be Worlds Next Big Thing ...... |
.... indeed its been touched upon in this blog.
However it appears that as climate change impacts on rainfall then there are parts of the world where they are getting tense over securing 'their' water supplies. The current biggest damp spot, is the Nile river, which Egypt has long considered itself to be the policeman of. The Pharaohs declared that "Egypt was the gift of the Nile", and changes of religion haven't altered that view, and so it considers any threat to Egypt's water as a threat to its sovereignty.
 |
| Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam .... |
But now Ethiopia have a giant $4bn (£3bn) hydro-electric under construction on the blue Nile, as part of a plan to deal with the doubling of the continent's population over the next 30 years. Ethiopia hopes to transform itself into a middle-income country, with electricity in abundance enough to export. So it is building Africa's largest hydroelectric power station and one of the world's largest dams, to provide a 6,000 megawatt capacity, which is the equivalent of at least six nuclear power plants of renewable energy. Ethiopia wants to pay for this project itself, without international help and its sees the project as a proud national achievement.
In this aim, its downstream neighbour Sudan supports this, as the cheap power will benefit its economy as well. Sudan has not apparently got concerns over any disruption of its water supplies, in fact rather the opposite. At the moment the difference between high water and low water level in Sudan is 8m, and that makes its vast irrigation projects harder to manage. But with the dam in place, the difference will be just 2m, and the flow of the river will come year-round, thus greening vast swathes of Sudan for the whole year.
However Egypt objects strenuously to this dam, but can't halt its construction without military force, and probably only then with Sudan's assistance. So currently its trying to slow down Ethiopia's plans to fill up the giant dam inside a six year window, as the speed with which Ethiopia fills up the dam will affect the flow downstream. Its proposing instead a minimum ten year fill up period, as Egypt fears that even a reduction of flow by 2 per cent, would cost it about 200,000 acres of productive farmland land, and put one million peoples livelihoods at risk. Egypt is currently using more water than its internal renewable resources - mainly based on Nile fresh water inflows - supply. Water stress in Egypt is expected to further increase in the future, as a result of rapid population growth, rising temperatures, and increasing water consumption.
Talks are being held in Washington between the three parties about Ethiopia's construction of this Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but although Egypt has suggested these are 'negotiations,' the Ethiopians have declared that the meeting is not a platform for technical negotiations, nor in fact a negotiation. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently told parliamentarians in Addis Ababa that "no force can stop Ethiopia" from building the dam.
The latest update is that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have agreed to work toward completion of an agreement by 15 January 2020, but if an agreement is not reached by then, the three countries will settle disputes, arising out of the interpretation or implementation of this agreement, amicably, through consultation or negotiation in accordance with the principle of good faith.
Even so, it looks as though nothing much will be achieved from Egypt's point of view, but as the UN predicts that Egypt will start suffering water shortages by 2025, and relies on the Nile for 80% of its water, and 85% of the flow it receives comes from the Blue Nile branch, then the possibility of armed conflict is still there, if currently remote.
But on 25/02/2020 it was reported that Ethiopia's Water Minister Seleshi Bekele has said the country will not participate in fresh talks on the future of the hydro-power project on the Nile River due be hosted by the United States on Thursday and Friday in Washington.
Elsewhere in the world, other tensions over water supply are mounting:
The Euphrates-Tigris Basin:
 |
| Euphrates-Tigris Basin Disputes |
This is shared between Turkey, Syria and Iraq (with Iran sharing part of just the Tigris basin). Since the 1960s, unilateral irrigation plans altering the flows of the rivers, coupled with the political tensions between the countries, have strained relations in the basin. Disputes have prevented the three governments from effectively co-managing the basin’s rivers. Although cooperation efforts were renewed in the 2000s, these have yet to result in a formal agreement on managing the basin water and the violent nature of the geopolitics in this area (including the fact that this a Kurdish area), have also made peaceful progress unlikely.
Helmand River and the Harirud:
 |
| Helmand River and the Harirud |
Afghanistan’s efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand River and the Harirud, to support post-conflict reconstruction and development have alarmed Iran which perceives Afghanistan’s agricultural expansion and dam construction activities as threats to water security in its eastern and north eastern provinces. There is a treaty in place which is largely ignored.
Dam projects and disputes in the Mekong River Basin:
The Mekong basin is witnessing an enormous expansion of dam-building for hydropower generation, especially in China and Laos. This has led to diplomatic tensions as countries downstream of the dams fear the negative impacts they may bring about, from greater flooding, to seasonal lack of water. China is not willing to be adjudicated by The Mekong River Commission’s (MRC), and much like its South China Seas policies, is going it alone.
Climate change, is one horseman of the apocalypse (famine/thirst), and it could soon be joined by another three Death, War, and Conquest as countries strive to secure dwindling resources for themselves.
Ethiopia has launched a campaign to raise funds for the construction of the dam on the River Nile. People have been asked to use their mobile phones to send money for the $5bn (£3bn) project after the government recently refused to sign a US-mediated deal with Egypt and Sudan over the dam. It is around 68% complete and Ethiopian authorities plan to start filling it in a few months.
ReplyDeleteAs mentioned earlier, there hasn't been a resolution and tempers have frayed further. There could yet be a war.
ReplyDelete