Educated Voters

In the USA voters who identify with the Democratic Party or lean toward it .... 

Intellectuals Attracted To The Left?

.... are much more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a college degree (41% versus 30%). 

Education Influences Voting Patterns In USA

This is mirrored in the UK where 43 % of voters with a university degree voted Labour, while only 29% voted Conservative. Which is somewhat ironic, as traditionally the left leaning parties relied on blue collar manual workers, and right leaning parties on better educated voters. 

Voters by Education Level

But it may well explain why in the UK the 'red wall' of northern working class seats has been breached and started turning Conservative, while in London, the Labour Party has developed a strangle hold on the Capitals seats, because there are higher numbers of degree holders there, attracted to London by employment opportunities in well paying jobs (which invariably means higher educational qualifications). 

Similarly, Donald Trumps success in 2016 was fuelled by an unprecedented turnout of non-college white voters, particularly in the rust belt states. A fact that was actually amplified in 2020, when non-college white voters turned out in even greater numbers (the highest observed in at least 20 years, up from 58% in 2016 to 64% in 2020), despite the fact that nationwide in the U.S. the census shows the share of white non-college Americans in the population has declined as a share of eligible voters from 45% in 2016 to 41% in 2020.

This voting trend which counters the demographic fall in the numbers of the less well educated, is actually something of a problem for left leaning parties in both the USA and UK, because traditionally these parties relied on the blue collar working man and woman for their support, rather than the better educated workers in high paying occupations. This reversal of attractions means that the left leaning parties are now increasingly forced in to relying on younger and ethnic minority voters to give them the bulk numbers in the voting booths to win elections (at least in the short to median term).

The Latino Votes Are Not Firmly Democrats

However although that dependence has worked up until now, especially during periods of mass immigration, its not a sure fire tactic, and can't be relied on in the coming decades. Higher education rates for example are not a sure fire indication of voting intentions, and an ageing, and therefore more conservative population can easily counter, a younger higher educated voting block. Similarly, ethnic minorities don't stay automatically wedded to the left, especially as they get better economic outcomes, and their self interests diverge from the past.

So in the US, whilst the black vote has stayed firmly with the Democrats, the Hispanic/Latino vote has started shifting towards the Republicans (even amongst the degree educated), as that group becomes better established and more successful (and leave the Black community behind).

Similarly in the UK, the ethnic voting block is actually breaking up ....a survey by British Future showed that 33 per cent of Black, Asian and Ethnic Minority ethnic (BAME) voters actually supported the Conservatives in the last general election, a new record for a party which has traditionally struggled to appeal to BAME voters in the past. The ethnic minority support for the Conservatives was especially high in the south of England, at 40 per cent. This figure fell to a low of 26 per cent in the North.

So although more than half of BAME's (52 per cent) still voted for the Labour Party, the gap between the two main parties is closing quickly - particularly among Hindu/Sikh Asian voters (Muslim voters seem to have not moved parties so clearly - 64 per cent of Muslims voted for Labour, compared to only 25 per cent for the Conservatives). Overall, amongst all British Asians - 38 per cent of the Asian voters went for the Conservatives, compared to 50 per cent for Labour.

Hindus and Sikhs, were both more likely to vote Conservative, with 49 per cent of both groups voting for them, compared to the 41 per cent who voted Labour, which is a marked difference with the Black voters, where 67 per cent of black people voted for Labour, compared to only 21 per cent for the Conservatives.

So the left leaning parties in both the USA and UK face a double conundrum:

• Firstly the education gap between their metropolitan elite supporters (who often run the parties) and their old core voters who feel alienated by these polices (PC, Multi-Cultural, BLM, WOKE etc), and which makes them unattractive to large elements of their old core voters.
  
• Secondly the fact that as the more ambitious minorities advance educationally and financially, they change their political allegiances (they often are not tied to public housing like the old white working classes and aren't prepared to be held in those voting pools). The rise in their economic status means that their self interests can also alter with this change.
  

So politically things are perhaps not so locked down as they might appear at first glance, and although initially the indicators are that the left leaning parties should inherit the future landscape with the rise in minority groups, and higher education being spread more widely, this could prove to be an ephemeral victory.

There are other factors at play, and so as the still waters of voter intentions run deep, there is still all to play for in the future.