Cultural Collapse

While Vladimir Putin may believe that Russia can ride out the financial affects of the economic sanctions being imposed by the West .....

Moscow Shoppers Have Got Used To Shops Like Europe's

...... especially if China steps up, and replaces the West as buyers of Russia's oil and commodities.

But the Russian population, especially those under the age of 45, west of the Urals, has become increasingly European in outlook, and has grown used in the last 30 years, to being able to travel to Europe and elsewhere. Sporting, cultural, economic and artistic exchanges and collaborations had opened up in a manner unimaginable to their parents and grand parents.

So Russia’s new cosmopolitan elite, the so-called creative class, that has arisen since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, and that has established itself economically in Moscow and St Petersburg, was expecting a new European integrated Russia to develop and grow. In fact, for the average urban middle-class Russian, economic life has never been better - certainly the best in all of Russia's history, with foreign holidays, owning their own apartments, and the chance to own country dachas, and modern cars.

In short, they had for the first time in decades, if not centuries, started to think of themselves as being occidental and an integral part of Europe, and not as Eurasians centred more in some part of Western Asia.

European Brand Shops In Russia Closing

Now, with closure of Western shops, and brands no longer available such as McDonald's who are no longer franchising in Russia, they will see much of this ripped away as Putin's actions in the Crimea and Ukraine have removed that feeling of Europeaness away from the younger Russian people, and plunged them into the status of being citizens of a pariah state, much like that experienced by their parents. 

Whilst he and his cronies may be happy to holiday in the Crimea, and run their super yachts (they all have one, and Putin is probably the worlds richest man), around the Black sea. They can also probably enter the Mediterranean via Turkey, which even under its own autocrat Erdogan has not backed Russia in the UN by abstaining in the recent condemnations, but also has not apparently blocked Russian flights, or its ships passing through the Bosphorus (but with limited places that they can land or dock).

Flight Bars For Russian Holiday Makers

The general Russian population face a very different reality. If they can still afford it, they can definitely still travel on holiday to Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria, which all backed the invasion in the recent UN vote, however none of these are what one might call attractive holiday hot spots. Perhaps Turkey will take Russian holiday makers if flights are still allowed, but that's not totally certain at the moment. 

So with the more expensive flights to get around the blocked airspaces to find countries that will allow Russian airlines and tourists, most Russians are possibly now back behind a new type of Iron Curtain, one which President Putin has manufactured for them. The new curtain is all 27 EU countries, as well as Albania, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, the UK, and the US, who all imposed the flight/tourist ban after Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Although in truth, as most Russian tourists (2.85m) went to Abkhazia (Russian militarily occupied Georgia), and Turkey (2m) in 2020 (ironically the third most popular destination was Ukraine 1.25m), the majority may still not notice the changes.

I guess Putin assumes that in a year or two, or even less, that the West will just accept what has been done as fait accompli, and reopen flights, cut the sanctions, and all will be as it was before, or near enough. Whether he's right or not, only time will tell, but I like to think that he is wrong on at least some counts, but as self interest drives a lot of political decisions, no doubt some countries will be tempted to break ranks (probably under the fig leaf of some Putin concessions and dependency on Russian oil). 

However its hard to think that the wholesale bombing of Ukrainian civilians and cities, and the threats of world nuclear obliteration if anyone interferes, will just be swept under the political carpet to satisfy political expediency, if not just because more than three million Ukrainian refugees will be living in Europe and elsewhere, and will be a constant reminder of what has happened.

I am not one of those who think Putin will be deposed in some popular peoples uprising or by his cronies (they all are invested in his survival), and I believe he will hang on, if only because he is utterly ruthless. But he could be presiding over a very much poorer state, with many, if not all of the economic gains in standards of living (however limited they may have been for many), of the last 30 years, reversed.

Whether Russia is perpetually doomed to keep being dragged away from Europe by its rulers is a question that has to be asked because history has shown that this cycle keeps repeating. Some leaders try to 'westernise,' and or reform Russia e.g Peter the Great, Empress Elizabeth, and later Alexander II, but they were nearly always followed by conservative counter reaction e.g Alexander III. 

So the 1991 collapse of the USSR, brought the possibility of genuine freedom and the establishment of a true democracy. But for a number of reasons, including cronyism and economic corruption (led from the top), this chance was lost, and Russia once again, as it has so often in its history, fell under an autocratic leader. After the initially greater openness that attended Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, offered a brief possibility that a progressive Russia might exist, it was followed by President Putin's clampdowns.

Now the wheel has apparently finished turning full circle again, and President Putin rules by whim and diktat, just like so many of Russia's former autocrats. Whilst the saying 'You get the government you deserve' may have some relevance in this instance, you cant help thinking that the Russian people deserve a chance of something better.