US Decline over the next two decades?

The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence and dominance over the next two decades. However this report is issued only four years after the same group predicted that the US dominance would go on for at least three decades.

They also state that the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflicts around the globe ..... No Shit Sherlock!

They could have just been reading this blog for the same report!

Now the really interesting thing about this, is the way in which the same report to a then powerful President Bush, said that the US would remain the sole world superpower, whereas this latest report, presumably aimed at President elect Obama, says that the US has to work with other regional powers to retain its leading role.

Different strokes for different folks ..... because I am in fact pointing out that the two reports are aimed at the sensibilities of the two respective men, and are probably all based upon the same intelligence.

I seem to remember at the end of the 1970's, there were many predictions, much the same as this latest NIC report, except in them days it was the Yen and Japan to rival or surpass the US. In fact there were even those saying that by the year 2000, South Korea and the other tiger economies of the Southeast Asian area were going to catch up with Japan, and even surpass the US ..... sounds funny now.

Similarly, the predictions of the US demise are much exaggerated .... its noticeable that those economic powers at the end of the 19th century (US, Britain, France, and Germany) are still in the top 6 world economies with the others (Japan and China) both just taking up their historic places. China for example was worth 25% of world trade in 1800 AD, and now its around the same amount.

There are many reasons why over 100 yrs later, the same countries still top the wealth and power tables, but one is that it takes a certain set of cultural values to run efficient economies, which these countries all display to one degree or other, and that those other countries mentioned as 'new super powers' (from Korea, through Brazil, and into India) don't.

It would not surprise me, if in the year 2100 AD, the list was hardly changed at all .....