Donald Trump may, or may not, prove to be a good or bad president from a US perspective ....
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| Trump Policies Can Take Any Direction |
.... But he's definitely a man with a mission, as he knows he only really has 2 years before he's a lame duck 2nd term president.
So, as a blogger, I am going to be kept real busy, as he tries to shape his legacy ... it's also a wild ride as he sacks and disband swathes of US bureaucracy, resets foreign policy, ignores global warming, offends all the US's allies/partners, and generally stirs up 'the swamp' in his attempts to drain it.
Personally I think he often does whatever first comes into his head, whenever he's posed a problem or a question. This makes his reactions difficult to predict, and his general policy aims sometimes impossible to divine, especially in foreign policy. The tariffs may precipitate a crash in the global free-trade system (but some economists say that free-trade, failed older economies such as the US or UK, from the late 70's onward, as lower wage economies stepped in to under cut them, and wiped out whole manufacturing sectors), or just successfully bring manufacturing jobs back in to the US .... this practise of ever changing policies on the hoof, can be both an advantage and a disadvantage in equal measure, especially as it wrong foots friends and foes alike.
I have my doubts about some of what he's doing, but who knows, he might actually be a man with a plan.
And the attacks continue. J D Vance the US vice president spent the majority of his keynote speech at a defence form in Munich, Germany, accusing European governments - including the UK's - of retreating from their values, and ignoring voter concerns on migration and free speech.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that all the post war Western order, from trade, WTO, and NATO are under immediate threat from the US in the next few months.
There does appear to be an agenda. Why the US is going isolationist and territorially aggressive is not clear, but that's the current direction of travel. thanks for the comment.
DeleteThe latest terrorist attack in Munich by a so called Afghan asylum seeker the day before proves a point about migration fears and the threat from within that JD Vance mentioned in his speech.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of unease across Europe about immigration, particularly by hose who don't even like Western values. Thanks for the comments
DeleteIf I lived in any of the ex soviet satellite states I would be very worried about developments in Ukraine, and the US apparently unwilling to defend Europe in the future.
ReplyDeleteThe EU is going to struggle to defend its borders. Germany doesn't even spend 2% of its GDP on defence.
Well its no coincidence that Poland is spending the highest percentage GDP in Europe on defence. Thanks for the comment.
DeleteGermany and France spend just 2% of GDP. The UK is moving to 2.5% by 2027 and aiming for 3% by 2030.
DeleteUkraine has signed a deal to give up its rare earth's and other resources to US companies.
So USA first and foremost is on track.
Well, the deal is off after the bust up at the Oval Office. Ukraine is going to find US support thin on the ground, and frankly, Europe is likely on its own now.
ReplyDeleteThe world is going to seem a lot chillier for Europe for the next 4 years, and probably after that. France and Germany are going to have to step up to the plate and rearm to cold War levels.
Its all gone pear shaped and that's a fact. I can't say that I am surprised, although I wasn't expecting the break-up with Europe and Ukraine to be so swift. If this is a permanent re-set then Europe will be more unstable, especially the Baltic fringe and central Europe.
DeleteUkraine bullied into surrender. Europe no longer guaranteed US military support under Trump. Negotiating with Hamas. Trade war with 3 countries and probably the EU as well ... I guess you can say Trump is a man with a plan alright. A bad plan.
ReplyDeleteYou have to see this from a US perspective my friend. Many there think that they have been paying for rich European countries defence (Germany and France for example), allowing them to have for example, universal health care, whilst the US spends its money on troops and the military instead of social provisions.
DeleteThey also see western countries manufacturing bases hollowed out, with manufacturing either taken abroad or wholly foreign owned abroad. Very often these countries (such as China or India) have protective tariffs preventing Western manufacturers from competing in their countries. Or they employ industry subsidies to support home manufacture e.g. Tax breaks, or other incentives, then product dump in Western countries to wipe out their industry e.g. Steel and Aluminium production.
Trump believes that the US should have blocked or tariffed all those countries who have grown their economies at the US tax-payers expense. I believe he used the term 'treating us like suckers' and he has thought this since the 1980's .... many other US citizens agree broadly with this analysis.
Technically he is right in saying that tariffs may force some manufacturing to return to the USA, but I suspect that it will be at a cost to the consumer, as cheaper imported items are now repriced to match more expensive home made products. Inflation may also be harder to curb.
Thanks for the comment.
What non US citizens don't realise is tha Trump wants America to have more local manufacturing, a smaller government and pays less for the military defence of its allies.
DeleteYou Europeans have had it far to easy for 80 years. Time to pay@@
Fair enough. the aims may be laudable, the methods may be questionable. Thanks for the comment.
DeleteJust a quick additional note: Hong Kong billionaire to sell Panama Canal ports to US firm .... another win for Trump?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyzlk259g2o