Only Time And Fate Will Tell

Last week a (rare) commenter, pointed out that Donald Trump has really doubled down on his claims on and about Canada, Mexico, China and Greenland.

Trump Has A Gaza Plan

My reply was "I guess that Trump and his supporters would point out that he's been successful so far, with Mexico and Canada (and some extent Denmark/Greenland) all negotiating with him now. China has restricted its retaliation to lower tariffs than Trump has imposed .... so winner winner chicken dinner!!" 

But I thought maybe this subject deserves a more extensive response, as I could be accused myself of being more than a bit sceptical about Trumps actions and his "strange thought patterns," as the commenter stated it. 

So yes, I guess that Trump and his supporters would point out that both Canada and Mexico have already  attempted to assuage him over his border concerns. Its also reignited a debate inside Mexico about the relative power of the cartels and the state in Mexico, as well as this possibly being a chance to get US forces to assist in fighting the cartels (including military assistance) in earnest.

Elsewhere, the Danish are facing losing Greenland to independence factions (albeit the potential loss of the Danish block grant of funds, and social welfare and security benefits, muddies the waters). Panama has been spooked into re-examining its relationship with China (and the canal) and the USA. This applies equally to other Central and South American countries. El-Salvador for example has offered to take US deported prisoners who are foreigners into its notorious 'Super Max Prison' to get them out of the US.

The shock waves of his first tranche of tariffs have caused India (a country that has a long record of high tariffs and protectionism against foreign imports), to suddenly start cutting tariffs, especially on US imports. NATO members are all suddenly pledging at least 2% of GDP to defence (Trumps still demanding more), and the NATO secretary has backed his demands. China has responded like for like to tariffs and restrictions, but in a muted kind of way, and is apparently open to discussions .... but the teeth in its response are in its export controls on 25 types of rare metal products, which impacts US hi-tech manufacturers (hence Trumps interest in Greenland, which is believed to have supplies of some of these metals).  

So, despite his sudden (and unenforceable), decision that the Gaza strip should be emptied of Palestinians (aka Hamas), and sent to Egypt/Jordan and other Arab nations, and the land turned into a Mediterranean/desert holiday casino hotel resort (Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort on the Med anyone?), with some good Arabs working in the bars and resort hotels as cleaners (women) and grounds maintenance (men), his team would say that he's shaking up a cozy world order and status quo, that was taking advantage of the USA economically, militarily, and politically (an opinion that probably over 50% of North Americans agree with).

That out of this shake-up will come a better system, with a free world more self-dependent and not relying so much on the USA for muscle and money. That the US economy would be more robust, with the debt reducing, higher employment, and more production and the US would have less involvement in (to misquote Neville Chamberlains speech) "quarrels in faraway countries, between peoples of whom we know nothing." 

Whether this is how it will all turn out, only time and fate will tell ..... I suspect that none of these takeovers (except maybe Panama, where the US has previous form), will actually occur, but Trump will get concessions that he can parade as victories.