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Friday, 29 September 2017

Ever Closer Union Not A Certainty

Mrs Merkel took a bit of blow in the recent German elections. She had been widely tipped to sail serenely in to office again, for an unprecedented fourth term as German Chancellor. However although she retained the post, it was something of a Pyrrhic victory as it came with a steep price.

Pyrrhic Victories Are Always Costly .... Ask Mrs May In The UK.   
Credit Library of Congress "Another victory like this and our money's gone!"

Her party had its worst electoral performance in 70 years, and it ushered in a 'far right' (in the eyes of the left leaning media at least), party for the first time since 1945. So she has limped over the finishing line, faced with the prospect of months of haggling with the Greens, and the Pro-Business Free Democratic Party to form a workable coalition.

Meanwhile the AfD party will be sniping from the opposition benches. As indeed will the main opposition Social Democratic Party, who also suffered their worst results in decades but who nonetheless are the second placed party. As the AfD's main agenda centres on immigration, Islam and opposition to EU centralisation, it seems Mother Merkel faces a tougher time domestically than she has in the past.

However despite my glee that she has suffered something of setback, I expect her to carry on much like she has, because it's hard not to revert back from being 'umble, ever so 'umble', to ruling by imperial diktat, after an election win.

So I reserve my laughter and mocking for Messrs Juncker and friends, who thought that with Macron (who incidentally, has seen his popularity collapse as the realism of his policies have come home to the voters), winning in France, they had beaten back the populist storm led by Madame Le Pen.

My how the cocky smirks must have been wiped from their lips, as the German results came in. Perhaps their attempt to punish the UK for breaking ranks with the 'more Europe' and 'ever closer union' agenda, will be a wee more circumspect from now on.

I don't know if there are any more major powers facing general elections soon, but it could be a damn site more sticky for the federalist brigade in the future ....

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