We can't take predictions by scientists and politicians too strictly.
In every crisis, they actually cover their own backsides by over egging the worst possible scenarios ....
Now don't get me wrong, if I was a public servant I would also make sure that I didn't under estimate the risks or possible outcomes. For instance, many people in the UK at least, recall the Michael Fish incident, in which a BBC weather man publicly stated on live TV that ... "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!".
The storm that night was actually the worst to hit South East England for three centuries, causing record damage and killing 19 people. Subsequently, in reaction to the controversy that failed how he had dismissed the public fears, and got it wrong, the term "the Michael Fish effect" has been coined, whereby British weathermen are now inclined to predict "a worst-case scenario in order to avoid being caught out" .... It has impacted all public servant UK scientists forecasts ever since.
So when on 18 March 2020, the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo issued a dire warning, he was perhaps a little excessive. He claimed that within the following 45 days, New York City would need 110,000 hospital beds, in order to treat those suffering from the coronavirus, and that it only had 53,000 available. However in reality, New York hit a peak for hospitalisations on 12 April at 18,825. The numbers have been in decline ever since.
Similarly the London Nightingale Hospital, built with great publicity in 7 or 10 days - I cant remember exactly how fast, but for the UK uber fast - in expectation that the hospitals would be overwhelmed by coronavirus victims, has now been effectively mothballed, because we never got close to using it.
As for ventilators, well, despite warnings of shortages, we in the West have never actually run out of them, nor has anyone died because of the lack of them. In fact, Dyson's, a UK manufacturer, have taken a £20 million pound hit on their ventilators, which they developed at high speed, because they weren't needed.
Then there are the vaccines .... the 1957/58 Asian Flu, and the 1968-1970 Hong Kong flu epidemics (both of which killed 1 million people), had vaccines developed and deployed inside 6 months. Well apparently the multiple vaccines developed for the coronavirus, have already begun clinical trials on humans, and according to the World Health Organization, there are more than 100 possible vaccines in various stages of development around the world.
So maybe its not all fecking doom and gloom. But if you follow the main liberal media and the opposition politicians, you would never guess that fact.
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| The Michael Fish Effect Is A Scientific Phenomena ..... |
In every crisis, they actually cover their own backsides by over egging the worst possible scenarios ....
Now don't get me wrong, if I was a public servant I would also make sure that I didn't under estimate the risks or possible outcomes. For instance, many people in the UK at least, recall the Michael Fish incident, in which a BBC weather man publicly stated on live TV that ... "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!".
The storm that night was actually the worst to hit South East England for three centuries, causing record damage and killing 19 people. Subsequently, in reaction to the controversy that failed how he had dismissed the public fears, and got it wrong, the term "the Michael Fish effect" has been coined, whereby British weathermen are now inclined to predict "a worst-case scenario in order to avoid being caught out" .... It has impacted all public servant UK scientists forecasts ever since.
So when on 18 March 2020, the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo issued a dire warning, he was perhaps a little excessive. He claimed that within the following 45 days, New York City would need 110,000 hospital beds, in order to treat those suffering from the coronavirus, and that it only had 53,000 available. However in reality, New York hit a peak for hospitalisations on 12 April at 18,825. The numbers have been in decline ever since.
Similarly the London Nightingale Hospital, built with great publicity in 7 or 10 days - I cant remember exactly how fast, but for the UK uber fast - in expectation that the hospitals would be overwhelmed by coronavirus victims, has now been effectively mothballed, because we never got close to using it.
As for ventilators, well, despite warnings of shortages, we in the West have never actually run out of them, nor has anyone died because of the lack of them. In fact, Dyson's, a UK manufacturer, have taken a £20 million pound hit on their ventilators, which they developed at high speed, because they weren't needed.
Then there are the vaccines .... the 1957/58 Asian Flu, and the 1968-1970 Hong Kong flu epidemics (both of which killed 1 million people), had vaccines developed and deployed inside 6 months. Well apparently the multiple vaccines developed for the coronavirus, have already begun clinical trials on humans, and according to the World Health Organization, there are more than 100 possible vaccines in various stages of development around the world.
So maybe its not all fecking doom and gloom. But if you follow the main liberal media and the opposition politicians, you would never guess that fact.
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