As we edge toward the US Presidential election day on November the third ....
... the political stakes grow higher.
The incumbent, President Trump looked to have at least a 50/50 chance last February, and then the world got turned upside down by the virus out of China, and suddenly the economy ('Its the Economy Dummy' as Bill Clinton had posted over his desk), that Trump was relying on, turned turtle.
Suddenly, what had looked like a close battle looming, looked far more like a Biden walkover, and whilst a betting man still might not bet against the incumbent, even with three days to go, its looking like Biden has managed to capitalise on the chaos caused by Covid-19, and not having to deal with it himself. Certainly, there are genuine criticisms that can be made of the administrations handling of the crisis, which seems to largely stem from Mr Trumps complete inability to understand scientific advice .... but the Biden team have hardly covered themselves with glory on this issue either.
So on the pandemic and its devastation of the US/World economy Mr Trump has played the China card ..... Trump has said that the virus came out of China. That China didn't play the honest Injun and used its patsy, the World Health Organisation (WHO), to lie about the coronavirus spreading via human to human transmission. So this being true, its the Chinese's fault for both virus and the economic meltdown the lockdown protocols caused.
As usual with Mr Trump, this set of statements is riddled with deflections from himself, half truths and straight out lies etc, but when you throw mud, some of it sticks .... a large proportion of the US electorate believe all this to be basically true .... so when he pulls US funds out of the WHO, or threatens sanctions against Chinese firms, that the Pentagon say are actually communist party controlled, then there is a large body of support.
The Pentagon have named and shamed a number of companies listed on exchanges in the US that it describes as being entities "owned by, controlled by, or affiliated with China’s government, military, or defence industry." The listing of companies linked to the People’s Liberation Army (PLP), was mandated under the Defence Authorization Act of 1999, but no administration since then has released the report. In theory it could expose the companies to financial sanctions, but its probable that they wont be touched.
The Chinese government has reacted badly to this revelation, as it constantly tries to downplay the extent of the involvement of the PLP in many Chinese defence industries and hi-tech firms .... however in the current climate, its particularly sensitive to these sorts of claims. The Chinese flagship mobile company Huawei has been badly damaged by the concerns about their spying for the Chinese government ... especially in the USA.
Then there has been the black lives protests .... Now Mr Trump has played this card much more straightforwardly .... he has classed it as a challenge to US history, denigration of the founding fathers and their ideals, and simply a left wing putsch in disguise .... he did so through his usual tweets.
Trump also tweeted that he would declare Antifa a terrorist organization — although he has no authority to do so under the law, so he won't actually be doing so.
He makes no bones about his audience .... white America and the silent majority. For the Democrats, well, on this they are more forthright, with a general support for the whole movement, but caveats about the accompanying violence and damage to public property. They are hoping that the liberal media reports such as that in the New York Times in June, that 59 per cent of voters, including 52 per cent of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was “part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans,” and that that will turn into firm white voters moving away from Trump come Tuesday.
Personally, I think what white voters say out loud, and what they really think and do in the dark secrecy of the polling booths, are often very different matters and that this will be a closer battle than the polls might suggest.
But in a few days time, we shall see one way or another, as for good or bad American voters will have spoken.
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| Same Old Politics In The "New Normal" .... |
... the political stakes grow higher.
The incumbent, President Trump looked to have at least a 50/50 chance last February, and then the world got turned upside down by the virus out of China, and suddenly the economy ('Its the Economy Dummy' as Bill Clinton had posted over his desk), that Trump was relying on, turned turtle.
 |
| Bad Poll Averages For Trump .... |
Suddenly, what had looked like a close battle looming, looked far more like a Biden walkover, and whilst a betting man still might not bet against the incumbent, even with three days to go, its looking like Biden has managed to capitalise on the chaos caused by Covid-19, and not having to deal with it himself. Certainly, there are genuine criticisms that can be made of the administrations handling of the crisis, which seems to largely stem from Mr Trumps complete inability to understand scientific advice .... but the Biden team have hardly covered themselves with glory on this issue either.
So on the pandemic and its devastation of the US/World economy Mr Trump has played the China card ..... Trump has said that the virus came out of China. That China didn't play the honest Injun and used its patsy, the World Health Organisation (WHO), to lie about the coronavirus spreading via human to human transmission. So this being true, its the Chinese's fault for both virus and the economic meltdown the lockdown protocols caused.
As usual with Mr Trump, this set of statements is riddled with deflections from himself, half truths and straight out lies etc, but when you throw mud, some of it sticks .... a large proportion of the US electorate believe all this to be basically true .... so when he pulls US funds out of the WHO, or threatens sanctions against Chinese firms, that the Pentagon say are actually communist party controlled, then there is a large body of support.
The Pentagon have named and shamed a number of companies listed on exchanges in the US that it describes as being entities "owned by, controlled by, or affiliated with China’s government, military, or defence industry." The listing of companies linked to the People’s Liberation Army (PLP), was mandated under the Defence Authorization Act of 1999, but no administration since then has released the report. In theory it could expose the companies to financial sanctions, but its probable that they wont be touched.
The Chinese government has reacted badly to this revelation, as it constantly tries to downplay the extent of the involvement of the PLP in many Chinese defence industries and hi-tech firms .... however in the current climate, its particularly sensitive to these sorts of claims. The Chinese flagship mobile company Huawei has been badly damaged by the concerns about their spying for the Chinese government ... especially in the USA.
Then there has been the black lives protests .... Now Mr Trump has played this card much more straightforwardly .... he has classed it as a challenge to US history, denigration of the founding fathers and their ideals, and simply a left wing putsch in disguise .... he did so through his usual tweets.
- "Our nation has been gripped by professional anarchists. Violent mobs, arsonists, looters, criminals, rioters, antifa and others."
- “We have antifa, we have anarchists, we have terrorists, we have looters. We have a lot of bad people in those groups. I mean, you watch and you see.”
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| Policy By Tweet? .... Well Not Quite |
Trump also tweeted that he would declare Antifa a terrorist organization — although he has no authority to do so under the law, so he won't actually be doing so.
He makes no bones about his audience .... white America and the silent majority. For the Democrats, well, on this they are more forthright, with a general support for the whole movement, but caveats about the accompanying violence and damage to public property. They are hoping that the liberal media reports such as that in the New York Times in June, that 59 per cent of voters, including 52 per cent of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was “part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans,” and that that will turn into firm white voters moving away from Trump come Tuesday.
Personally, I think what white voters say out loud, and what they really think and do in the dark secrecy of the polling booths, are often very different matters and that this will be a closer battle than the polls might suggest.
But in a few days time, we shall see one way or another, as for good or bad American voters will have spoken.
Well this post was correct. The battle was, or is, far closer than expected, with both sides claiming victory, and legal disputes already started. It still seems likely that Biden has narrowly won, but as counts are still under way its not official, and it may yet prove to be an unlikely narrow Trump win.
ReplyDeleteYou have to ask if this is any way to run a democracy. The electoral college system is well out of date and simply a national vote count should be put in place.
But as Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, so politicians don't vote for political reforms.
Trump is not a gracious loser (and not a gracious winner either), so there will be bad mouthing and legal battles. But he has lost on both the college and numbers vote.
DeleteHowever Biden is a very old man so is likely a one term president himself.
It's not good that the US is becoming politically unstable at a critical time in the world.
We are likely to all see the consequences over the next 4 years. China's time has come again.
Err assuming Biden has won, and I am also assuming he has, then your assessment seems to be about right Steve. Whether Trump will simply disappear is another matter .... he and his brood may well be around for the next 4 years at least.
DeleteThanks for the comment. I appreciate it mate.
It'll be interesting to see who stands for both parties next time. Surely a lot younger than these two old men.
ReplyDeleteWell there's a good chance Biden won't even finish one term .... he's 77 and as I mentioned in a earlier post, a product of a system that favours only the wealthy (who usually are also older men).
DeleteThat possibility suggests that the Black/Asian vice president may well be in post in four years time .... now isn't that a thought?
Apparently the US Congress has voted for legislation that de-lists non-transparent, unaudited Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges .... this, backed by similar earlier action by the US Senate, means that President Trump only has to sign it, to force a lot of Chinese companies to stop being listed on US stock exchanges. This could make for an interesting inheritance for Old Joe in January 2021.
ReplyDeleteAh well, that can wait for now.
... and another company blocked.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55187631