"A Perfect Storm"

This blog has frequently pointed to the confluence of events that may well precipitate profound changes in the human races existence on the planet, and even life itself ..... we have predicted 2050 AD as the moment of the disasters but more and more evidence suggests that there will be a major problem around 2030 AD which we have discussed. This week, the March predictions of UK chief scientist John Beddington, which described what he called a "A Perfect Storm" of food, energy and water shortages, unless the world changes its ways, arising as early as 2030 AD, have made the main news again, with some discussion on what to do. This is all population driven, and yet even now we talk around this subject, because too many on the 'PC Left' consider it "Racist" to suggest that the Middle East, Asia and Africa need to curb their population growth now. This is doubly so, because so many of these left wingers have a vested employment interests in the work of charities, NGO's and Inter governmental agencies which promote more, not less children in the Third World, but with no attempt to curb the birth rates.

In the Middle East, no attempt has ever been made to cut birth rates of 10 or more children, especially amongst the poor and ill educated. There are several populations with very high population growth rates, such as those of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, or the United Arab Emirates. Its been pointed out that Iran is a notable exception to the regional trends.

In the sub continent, only Mrs Indira Gandhi ever tried any forceful birth control measures (and she was assassinated). Despite some evidence that birth rates are falling in India, it appears that she is still likely to overtake China in population levels by 2050 AD.

Pakistan is on a track of mass population growth (which should worry the UK), and is expected to go through the roof. In 1950 Pakistan had a population of about 40 million people. Since then it has more than tripled and stood at 136 million in 1995. But because the country not only has a very young population, but also still an extremely high fertility rate (much higher, for instance, than in Bangladesh or Thailand), its predicted that Pakistan's population will be about 357 million by 2050 AD.

The Chinese have practised a one child policy for decades (with some success), but recently they have relaxed it to two children to stabilise the population and to get rid of the male orientated population that the one child policy produced.

Sub Saharan Africa has no birth rate policies, and Nigeria is predicted to have grown from a population in 1950 of about 33 million to about 112 million now. The UN predicts that between 1995 and the year 2050 the country's population will probably triple again and reach almost 339 million ..... a ten fold increase in less than a century.

By 2050 AD a much bigger share of the world population will live in Africa South of the Sahara. In only some 50 years Western Africa, for instance, will have the same population as all of Europe. Eastern Africa will have many more people than all the countries of South America, the Caribbean and Oceania combined.

So we face an unprecedented population explosion, and no resources to feed them .... the US survivalists may be on to something.