Only The Devil Loves Wars

One of the surprises of the war in Iran are the casualty figures ...

Tehran Bombed - Low Comparatively Casualties?

 

.... I say surprises, because considering the sheer volume of munitions being expended by all sides, especially by the US and Isreal, but also by an Iran lashing out in all directions, you would expect many thousand upon thousands of dead and wounded.

But as of the 22nd of March the reported killed figures: 

• The US were reporting that 140 American service members have been injured so far (32 seriously and 13 killed). Plus millions of dollars in infrastructure and hardware destroyed in US bases in the region e.g. a US radar for a Thaad missile defence system at an air base in Jordan destroyed. The AN/TPY-2 radar system costs approximately $485m.
• Iran, at least 2,000 military and civilians killed, but the figure is likely to be higher overall. Its not clear how many are civilians and how many are armed forces.
• In Lebanon at least 1,029 people have been killed, but how many are Hezbollah fighters is not stated.
• Israel has reported 16 civilians and at least 2 soldiers have been killed in hostilities in Lebanon.
• Elsewhere amongst Arab neighbouring states. Iraq - At least 67 people have been killed, while in Syria - 4 people were reported as killed. In the UAE 6 people have been killed in Iranian attacks, while in Saudi Arabia - 2 people reported killed and in Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait have had 5 people killed between them.

Obviously these figures will continue to have risen in the intervening days and the final tallies may not be known for some time after the fighting stops. 

Now while each death is a personal tragedy for those concerned and their families, but by gross numbers, after 26+ days of very large numbers of bombs, missiles and rockets being fired by all parties, as well as ground fighting in Lebanon, these are still comparatively small numbers compared for example to the carnage in the Ukraine. 

Only The Devil Loves Wars

However, although its still not clear when this war will end, with claims and counter claims about peace talks, end it eventually will:

• Trump will finally be able to declare a US victory (he's already done so a number of times, while fighting has continued and Iran mocked his claims), but probably with very little tangible evidence that it was a complete victory. Gas prices will have risen at home, and the US will have further strained relationships with its Arab allies (who consider this un-consulted war to be of benefit only to Isreal's security, at the expense of theirs), as well as Europe (who Trump has vilified again for not joining in the attacks, despite not consulting them, or the Arabs, before launching the war alongside Isreal 27 days ago). The US mid-terms in November will determine whether he personally has been a victor or not when voters will give an opinion on his second presidential term.
• Iran will have have lost much of its missile stocks, but will still have at least a few thousand left, as well as its fleet of drones and the enriched uranium stocks buried somewhere. The theocratic regime will remain in power by use of indiscriminate force against its civilian population but materially billions of dollars worth of infrastructure and military and civil materials damaged or destroyed.
• Lebanon: Hezbollah will be further weakened, but still a political and military force in Lebanon, which isn't strong enough to disarm them without another civil war, so will remain a thorn in both Lebanon's and Isreal's sides. Bridges destroyed will only be rebuilt if Isreal permits it.
• Isreal will have a couple of weaker enemies, but will still face the fact, that there is a possibility of one day facing nuclear attacks by Iran. However it will have tightened its control of parts of Lebanon, Gaza and parts of the West Bank, making a two state final solution less likely and allowing for further attacks on its enemies in the future.
• The Arab states have found that they can be targeted by Iran for hosting US bases, and that the US can't stop some attack's being successful. They will have to live with a vengeful Iran as a neighbour after Trump loses interest.
• Finally Trumps apparent belief that NATO should provide support of an Israeli - US war on Iran, means he continues to abuse the Europeans for not helping his war aims. NATO will likely not survive Trumps presidency. 

So one really has to ask, was this war worth it for anyone except Isreal?