Friday, 17 June 2016

Strapped To A Corpse

The thing about the idea of staying inside the EU is, that I can't help thinking its like a man stranded at sea strapping himself to a corpse for buoyancy. Sure its bloated and gassy, and floating, but at any time soon it could burst open and then sink, dragging anyone strapped to it, down into the depths.

We Risk Going Down With The EU Corpse

The EU is actually in decline. Its share of world output (accounted for by the 28 current members of the EU), has fallen from 30% to 16.5%, between 1980 and 2016 .... this despite the fact that its economy has grown a little in that period. Its just that it hasn't grown by enough to keep its relative position in the world, as other economies have grown faster. 

EU Is Declining In Comparative Terms

Its only increases in its share of world GDP have occurred whenever a new member state has joined, but this soon dissipates, and the generally downward trend quickly resumes. This is why the EU keeps trying to expand. Like a junkie, the EU has to keep getting new fixes to reach those ever smaller highs .... similarly Britain has to keep allowing economic migrants in, to 'grow the economy' (or so the remain campaign claims), to raise the revenues we need, to support the social needs (houses, hospitals, schools, social services etc), of an ever growing population of migrants.

Its actually a self-fulfilling cycle, and one that can never be sustained .... there are limits before social order just breaks down. The recent trend of nationalist politicians from both the left and right gaining prominence e.g. Greece and Austria, suggests that we are on, or near that border point now.

The claim that migrants increase general wealth is of course a fallacy. They generally drive wages down for the native residents, put massive strains on our social infrastructure and threaten to break any idea of a national identity .... if all inward migration was stopped in its tracks (i.e. all asylum seekers, arranged marriages, and migrants, were prevented from entering the UK), then wage levels would start to rise, job opportunities for natives (and migrants here already) would increase, and pressure on housing stocks and social infrastructure would ease.

All the signs are that the EU has lost its purpose and has entered onto a path that is just a dead ending. Apart from Germany (which gains as the Euro is lower than the old Deutschmark), its much vaunted 'Euro-zone' is a stagnant pond, with no growth for over a decade. It no longer creates jobs, with unemployment levels in the Eurozone akin to those in banana republics ....

  • I am only listing those Eurozone countries with unemployment levels at or above the 10% levels. France 10.6%, Italy 11.3%, Portugal 12.4%, Spain 21.4, and Greece 24.5%. 
  • The non-Eurozone areas unemployment levels are far lower e.g. The Czech rate is 6.2%, the UK is 5.1%, Denmark 4.5% and Norway 4.5%.

When you look at youth unemployment rates the figures are far far starker .... the EU and Eurozone has simply failed a generation.

  • Eurozone levels are: Greece 48.9%, Spain 45.3%, Italy 39.1%, Portugal 30%, France 24.6%
  • While the non-Eurozone youth unemployment levels are: Czech rate is 10.2%, the UK is 13.4%, Denmark 10.5% and Norway 11.8% .... very much lower.

.... and yet we are told be the remain camp, that we risk our economic future unless we tie ourselves to this EU corpse. The worlds future once centred over the Mediterranean, then it was the Atlantic, but now its the Pacific. If we hope to carry on trading as a major country we need to turn our world view in that direction, and not to the mausoleum of former greatness that is the old Europe.

The time for a decision on our future is now ....

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